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Just yesterday, Trump himself said be called for it and  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the administration is examining whether a full or partial ban is feasible.

"I've said let's not send out the diesel. We make a lot of diesel, and it could have a little bit of an effect on regular automobile gasoline because when you do that, you know it's a sort of a flow, it's a balance. But no, I've called for it. I've called for it within my people," Trump said.

Now the White House is calling a report in Politico that says the White House is preparing a 90-day diesel export ban 'fake news'. The report cited 5 people familiar btu said the legal process was being worked out. Perhaps the thinking here is that they don't want people…

Bitcoin has had a strong run since bottoming near $75,000 on September 16. The price pushed above the swing area between $81,517 and $82,833, then cleared the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the October 2025 high near $126,272. That retracement comes in at $83,916. Momentum carried Bitcoin toward $87,300 yesterday and again today.

Now the buyers are facing a test. The US 10-year yield is up 16.8 basis points to 5.135%, while the Nasdaq is down 1.28%. That shift in market sentiment has coincided with a pullback in Bitcoin. Some of this week’s gains are being given back, but the price has not yet fallen far enough to hand control back to the sellers.

What would change the bias?

The first level to watch is $83,916. Moving back below a…

The Treasury sold $70 billion of five-year notes at a high yield of 5.033%, compared with a when-issued (WI) yield of 5.002% just before the auction. That is a 3.1-basis-point tail, well above the six-auction average of 0.6 basis points.

• Bid-to-cover: 2.21X versus the 2.33X average
• Direct bidders: 29.92% versus the 21.8% average
• Indirect bidders: 54.31% versus the 65.2% average
• Dealers: 15.77% versus the 12.9% average

Auction grade: D. Direct bidders stepped up, but that was not enough to offset weaker indirect demand. The lower bid-to-cover ratio and the sizable tail show that buyers required a higher yield than the market had expected to absorb the supply. Dealers were left with a larger share than average. For traders, the tail is the…

US Treasury yields are trading at highs across the curve. The 10-year yield is above 5.09%, and the 30-year is near 5.39%. The question for traders is whether yields can stay at these levels as the market weighs strong growth against the risk of more inflation.

At the time of the yield snapshot:

• 2-year: 4.8952%. The last comparable daily reading was 4.92% on May 30, 2024.
• 5-year: 4.9828%. The last comparable daily reading was 5.01% on July 13, 2007.
• 10-year: 5.0913%. The last comparable daily reading was 5.11% on July 13, 2007.
• 30-year: 5.3891%. The last comparable historical reading was 5.42% on July 28, 2004.

The data are giving the Fed little reason to relax

Today’s flash S&P Global US composite PMI rose to 58.4 from 56.0 in August,…

European stocks closed lower Wednesday as yields climbed on both sides of the Atlantic. The main catalyst came from the U.S., where the flash composite PMI jumped to 58.4 from 56.0. Stronger growth gives the Fed room to keep policy restrictive, while persistent price pressures give it a reason. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said Tuesday that inflation could prove stubborn, and Fed Governor Michael Barr said Wednesday that further policy adjustments are likely to be needed. (www.richmondfed.org)

Europe’s flash PMIs also showed continued expansion: all eight manufacturing and services readings for France, Germany, the eurozone and the UK were above 50. Eurozone services rose to 53.0 from 51.6, beating the 51.4 estimate, while…

The US dollar is moving higher against the major currencies as Treasury yields rise. The fundamental story starts with the Fed: traders are increasingly considering the possibility that last week’s rate hike will not be the last.

Today’s flash S&P Global US composite PMI jumped to 58.4 from 56.0 in August, its highest reading since July 2021. Services led the advance, manufacturing output improved, and hiring strengthened. That points to an economy that is still moving forward. However, backlogs and supply delays also increased, while businesses reported higher input costs. Strong growth gives the Fed room to raise rates again; continued price pressure gives it a reason to consider doing so. (hk.marketscreener.com)

Fed officials have been…

It is Iran's turn at the UN with Iran Pres. Pezeshkian taking the stage today. Note that US officials walked out of the UNGA hall ahead of his speech. 

In summary, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran needs nuclear energy, not a nuclear bomb, and argued that the nuclear issue cannot be settled on the battlefield. He said Iran has shown a commitment to negotiations, but will not surrender to military pressure. He described Iran’s military posture as defensive and said the country must be strong enough to respond to attacks.

On the Strait of Hormuz, Pezeshkian said Iran cannot allow others to use the waterway to move weapons that would be used against it. He also spoke about the attack on the Minab girls’ school, saying innocent…

A senior Iranian official told Reuters about Tuesday’s indirect talks with the United States:

• Reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the U.S. blockade were discussed.
• Iran’s key priorities are permanently ending hostilities and lifting the U.S. naval blockade.
• Still many differences remain between Iran, US positions, but diplomacy continues

Meanwhile Secretary of State Rubio adds that talks on Iran on Tuesday were largely an exchange of ideas and messages.

Analysis: The important word for traders is discussed. Reopening Hormuz is on the table, but these comments do not say the two sides reached an agreement. Iran is also tying its priorities to a permanent end to hostilities and the lifting of the blockade.

For oil, the next question is…

• Crude oil stocks:+2.969 million barrels vs −0.641 million expected. Prior −0.640 million.
• Cushing crude stocks:+2.266 million barrels. Prior −0.342 million.
• Gasoline stocks:−1.686 million barrels vs +0.093 million expected. Prior +0.794 million.
• Distillate stocks:−0.428 million barrels vs −0.633 million expected. Prior +1.585 million.

The headline is the crude build. Traders were looking for a modest draw, but stocks instead rose by nearly 3 million barrels—a swing of about 3.6 million barrels from expectations. Stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, also increased sharply.

The gasoline draw tells a different story. Gasoline inventories fell when a small build was expected. Distillates declined too, although their draw was slightly smaller than…

• Risks to achieving 2% inflation have increased, risks to labor market have receeded
• Going into recent policy meeting, Fed needed to recalibrate mon pol to reflect risks
• Fed was out of position and made an adjsutment in the right direction
• Inflation is not clearly trending towards target in a timely way, economic growth is strong, labor market is solid

Growth got even better with today's US S&P Global PMI hitting a five-year high.

The U.S. dollar is higher against all seven major currencies as the North American session approaches. The biggest move is against the Australian dollar, while the smallest is against the Canadian dollar.

Currency snapshot at 7:30 a.m. ET:

• AUDUSD: 0.7068 — U.S. dollar higher by 0.62%
• NZDUSD: 0.5693 — U.S. dollar higher by 0.56%
• GBPUSD: 1.3283 — U.S. dollar higher by 0.42%
• USDJPY: 157.91 — U.S. dollar higher by 0.34%
• EURUSD: 1.1410 — U.S. dollar higher by 0.32%
• USDCHF: 0.8226 — U.S. dollar higher by 0.26%
• USDCAD: 1.4087 — U.S. dollar higher by 0.18%

Middle East: talks begin, but risks remain

Yesterday’s UN meetings brought both a warning and a diplomatic opening. President Trump warned Iran of further military action if there is no deal.…

• Prior was 56.8
• Manufacturing 57.0 vs 53.6 exp
• Prior manufacturing 53.2
• Composite 58.4 vs 56.0 prior

This is a nice jump and underscores the Fed's rate hike and hawkish stance. These are five-year highs across the board.