Market News

The fixing mechanism matters most right now because of what it has been signalling over recent weeks. The PBOC set its reference rate at the widest weak side deviation from market estimates in six months in late August, after the yuan touched a three and a half year high, a clear sign of discomfort with the pace of gains rather than the level itself. Traders should read this as the central bank applying the brakes rather than attempting to reverse the broader trend, since the yuan has still risen a meaningful amount against the dollar this year. The balancing act Beijing faces is straightforward: a stronger currency helps with capital stability and import costs, but too rapid a rise risks eroding export competitiveness at a time when the…

The update supports the view that the private credit redemption wave is past its peak rather than still building, which could steady sentiment toward alternative asset managers and their wealth-channel fundraising. Still, a fund paying out only a third of what investors ask for is a reminder that "semi-liquid" products can behave like illiquid ones under stress, a point regulators and distributors are likely to keep pressing. With resubmitted requests inflating headline figures across the sector, fresh withdrawal demand is the number to watch in upcoming tender results from rival managers. Any renewed concern over lending standards or loan quality could quickly reverse the easing trend.

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Apollo's private credit investors are still being…

US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he backs the idea of banning US diesel exports, and has called for such a ban and is examining it, as a way to bring down fuel prices that have climbed to record highs. No decision has been announced. Industry groups and energy analysts warn the measure could backfire, lowering US prices only briefly while pushing global prices higher, squeezing supply of other fuels and straining relations with allies.

US diesel futures dipped when Trump raised the idea. The average US pump price for diesel has reached a record of around $6.50 a gallon, according to motoring group AAA. Here is how a ban would work, and why so many market watchers doubt it would deliver what its backers hope.

Why diesel matters…

The survey hands the RBA a mixed signal days before its 29 September decision: softer demand and job cuts argue for caution, while faster growth in output prices keeps the inflation case for a hike alive. With markets already heavily priced for a move, the data may do more to shape expectations for November than for next week. Energy remains the key transmission channel, with Middle East-driven fuel costs cited as the main source of input price pressure, so oil prices stay central to Australia's inflation outlook. For the Australian dollar, weaker growth momentum is a modest headwind, although rate differentials are likely to dominate.

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Earlier:

• All four major Australian banks now forecast RBA hike to 4.60% on September 29
• RBA governor…

The findings reinforce the structural case against Germany's export-heavy industrial base, a headwind for autos, machinery and capital goods names that a cyclical recovery may only partly offset. For the ECB, cheaper Chinese imports are a potential source of downward pressure on goods prices, which could complicate the inflation outlook at a time when energy costs are pushing the other way. Central European economies tied into German supply chains face knock-on exposure. Weaker export competitiveness also offers little support for the euro over the longer term, even if near-term moves stay driven by rate expectations.

China is now beating Europe's industrial champions abroad while needing fewer of their goods at home, and the ECB says…

Canada's Big Six banks explore tokenized deposits: what that means and what it doesn't

What happened

Canada's six largest banks have agreed to jointly explore a tokenized deposit system in Canadian dollars. The group is Bank of Montreal, CIBC, National Bank of Canada, Royal Bank of Canada, Scotiabank and TD Bank Group, and TD announced the project on their behalf on Tuesday.

The plan has two stages. The first will test moving tokenized deposits between Canadian financial institutions. The longer-term aim is to connect with other digital-asset initiatives. The banks say the system could support faster, programmable payments available at any hour, while customer funds stay inside the regulated banking system.

Why it matters: tokenized deposits…

Crypto traders got a fast lesson in leverage on Monday. As bitcoin pushed to around $85,000, roughly $650 million of bearish bets were forcibly closed, yet the total value of open derivatives positions rose rather than fell. The figures circulated within hours.

For anyone used to traditional futures, where positioning data can take days to surface, that speed raises a fair question: where do these numbers come from, and what do they really tell us?

What happened

Bitcoin traded near $87,000 on Monday,  extending its break above the early September high. Shorts made up about $648 million of roughly $747 million in liquidations over 24 hours, according to CoinGlass data, and open interest rose about 7.6% to around $156 billion despite the…

BlackRock's Ethereum ETF buying is slowing, even as ETH rallies

What happened

Cointelegraph reported on Tuesday that BlackRock's two Ethereum ETFs, the spot iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) and the staking fund ETHB, bought $1.01 billion of ETH over the past 20 trading days. That is a large sum, but it is well below the figure that was circulating a week earlier.

On 17 September, Arkham data showed ETHA had bought roughly $1.27 billion of ETH over the prior 20 days and ETHB about $296.5 million, with ETHB recording no single-day net outflows during that stretch. Together that was about $1.57 billion. TechFlow

Farside Investors' daily flow data shows the same trend. Over the 20 completed sessions from 18 August to 15 September, the two funds took…

Crude is now trading two competing narratives: physical supply is improving, while the diplomatic path remains uncertain and heavily conditional. Brent holding near $99 despite the Saudi restart suggests the market still prices a meaningful risk premium until Hormuz flows normalise more broadly. Refined products look like the tighter corner of the market, with diesel at record highs in the US and Europe, so any sustained easing of product shortages could matter more for prices than crude headlines alone. A US diesel export ban, if pursued, would likely widen the gap between US and international diesel prices. Headline risk around Iran remains two-way, so choppy trade is likely to persist.

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Oil slipped as Saudi barrels started moving…

The Federal Reserve has stopped buying Treasury bills, but not necessarily for good. Roberto Perli, the New York Fed official who runs the central bank's day-to-day market operations, said on Tuesday that the Fed's Reserve Management Purchases are not on a preset course and will be adjusted to the market's liquidity needs. That leaves the door open to restarting them if the financial system needs more cash.

Perli, manager of the System Open Market Account, made the comments in closing remarks at a New York Fed event on Treasury market issues. He said the Fed's toolkit for controlling short-term interest rates had been working very well: rate control has been strong, reserves have stayed in what the Fed considers the ample range, and its…

Nagel's comments tie ECB rate expectations more directly to crude: a renewed climb in oil would strengthen the hawkish camp, while a sustained pullback would ease pressure for a move into restrictive territory. His openness to further tightening leans supportive for the euro and front-end euro area yields, although the lack of second-round effects tempers any sense of urgency. The TPI remarks signal the backstop is not a fiscal rescue tool, which may leave peripheral bond spreads sensitive to country-specific budget risk. Energy markets now carry a more explicit read-through to European monetary policy.

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Nagel put oil at the heart of the ECB's inflation fight, keeping the door open to mildly restrictive rates while insisting energy…

Australia flash PMIs preview: September data arrive days before an expected RBA hike.

Australia's preliminary S&P Global purchasing managers' indexes for September are due at 23:00 GMT (7pm US Eastern) on Wednesday, which is 9am Thursday on the east coast of Australia. 

August's final readings showed the private sector still growing, but a little more slowly than in July. The services PMI slipped to 53.2 from 53.6 in July, although it remained above the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction, and the final figure was an upgrade on a flash estimate of 52.9. Manufacturing held at 52.0, unchanged from July, while the composite gauge edged down to 52.7 from 53.2. 

The detail beneath the headline numbers leaned inflationary. The…