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Late yesterday it appeared that US-Iran negotiations were headed for catastrophe after Vice President JD Vance left Pakistan without a deal but not all hope is yet lost if you read between the lines from the latest statements.

The most-recent one is from Trump, who said the US will clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz and blockade Iran from shipping through it, much like Iran has done to the rest of the world.

He wrote:

So, there you have it, the meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not. Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz. At some point,…

The talks in Islamabad have beguin, according to reports from all sides.

Notably, Iran has said it can't open Hormuz because of mines in the water. The US seems to be calling that bluff as 'several' US navy ships passed through. Trump said "We're now starting the process of clearing out Hormuz".

I wonder if Iran will see that as an escalation as it evidently wasn't coordinated with them.

One thing that worries me a bit is that Trump is highlighting that many tankers are headed to the US to pick up oil cargoes. He seems to be excited about that but the flipside of it is that it will drive US oil and gasoline prices higher and it won't take long.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Both the S&P and NASDAQ indices close above 100 day moving averages
• Isreal wil announce its commitment to a ceasefire at 4 AM Beirut time
• Crude oil futures settles at $96.57. Down sharply on the week
• US March Budget deficit for March -$164.00 billion versus -$156.75 billion estimate
• Israeli Broadcasting Authority Netanyahu approves every attack launched in Beirut
• Baker Hughes rig count -3 at 545
• Fed Nominee Warsh nomination hearing will be delayed
• Major European indices close mixed. Higher for the week.
• Trump to the NY Post: Preparing military if Iran fails to comply in talks
• CNN. Trump had a "tense" call with Netanyahu on Lebanon
• UMich preliminary April consumer sentiment 47.6 versus 52.0 expected
• US February factory orders 0.0% vs -0.2% expected
• <a…

Iranian officials land at Nur Khan Airbase in Islamabad under Pakistan’s Air Force escort ahead of peace talks, two Pakistani sources involved in talks

• Iranian delegation led by Iran’s Parliament Speaker Qalibaf arrived in Islamabad ahead of peace talks with U.S.
• Iran says talks with U.S. to begin if “preconditions are accepted” – Iranian media
• Iranian media says Iran’s delegation includes foreign minister, defence council secretary, central bank governor and several parliament members

The U.S. delegation, led by Vice President JD Vance, and including Jared Kushner and Steve Witkopf are expected to arrive shortly.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Fars is reporting that

• Israel will announce it's commitment to a ceasefire at 4 AM Beirut time (it is 10:15 PM now in Beirut).

The announcement gives a path to peace talks between the US and Iran this weekend...

WHat to expect?

The U.S. position, led by JD Vance, is centered on security and stability. The primary goal is to eliminate any pathway for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, which means strict limits—or potentially a halt—to uranium enrichment, backed by strong verification and inspection measures. The U.S. is also pushing for the reopening and protection of the Strait of Hormuz to ensure steady global oil flows, along with broader de-escalation across the region, including curbs on Iran-backed proxy activity. At its core, the U.S.…

The price of crude oil is settling at $96.57. That is down $-1.30 or -1.33% on the day.

For the week, the price is down $-16 or -14.29%. The price is also below the 100 and 200 hour moving averages at $102.87 and $103.57.

The price low on February 26 came in at $63.81, just ahead of the war starting on February 28. The initial upside move pushed prices to a close of $71.02 on March 2, before momentum accelerated sharply. That surge over the next few days took the price to a high of $119.48 on March 9.

A sharp correction followed, with the low on March 10 reaching $76.73, but buyers stepped back in and drove the price higher again, peaking at $117.62 earlier this week. Since then, the market has seen another pullback, with the low this week…

• Prior month -$308 billion
• Federal budget deficit $164 billion versus $156.75 billion estimate. A year ago, the deficit was $161 billion

Details:

• Fiscal 2026 year-to-date deficit $1.169 trillion versus $1.307 trillion in 2025. Down 11% YoY
• March Net customs receipts and $22.16 billion
• Budget outlays $549 billion versus $528 billion in March 2025
• Receipt $385 billion, record for month of March, versus $368 billion in March 2025.
• Corporate refunds up 77%
• individual refunds up 9%
• Defense spending 3% higher compared to one year ago

Some additional looks:

• War-related outlays, such as for replenishing weapons ​inventories, would come in later months.
• Customs duty ​collections softened in the month following the U.S. Supreme ‌Court's ⁠annulment of President…

There is the Strait of Hormuz and then there is domestic production. In the current week, the Baker Hughes rig count fell -3 at 545.

Looking at the pieces:

• Oil rigs aree unchanged at 411
• Natural Gas is down -3 at 127.
• Total rigs -3 at 545.

Crude oil is is trading up $0.57 at $98.45. However for the week, the price is down $-13.78 or -12.31%

Looking at the hourly chart, the swing area and falling 100 and 200 hour MAs are providing upside resistance between 101.14 to 103.57. Stay below keeps the sellers in play/control in the short term.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Israeli Broadcasting Authority is reporting that PM Netanyahu approves every attack launched in Beiriut (Lebanon).

Pres. Trump is trying to get Israel and Netanyahu stop the attacks in Lebanon on Hezbollah. According to this report if there are additional tariffs, the buck stops at Netanyahu (and threatens the peace process).

As we head into the weekend, stocks are giving back earlier gains, with both the Dow and S&P slipping into negative territory. The Dow is down -0.63% and the S&P is lower by -0.19%.

The NASDAQ is still holding modest gains of +0.17%, but well off its session highs where it had been up 189 points. Technically, the index has also moved back below its 100-day moving average at 22,900.37 and currently trades…

In an interview with the New York Post

• President Donald Trump said US warships are being reloaded with “the best ammunition” in case strikes on Iran resume
• Warned military action will follow if peace talks fail
• Said outcome of negotiations should be known within ~24 hours
• Peace talks taking place in Pakistan (Islamabad) following a two-week cease-fire
• US delegation includes JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner
• Iran expected to be represented by Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
• US demands include:
  • Hand over ~1,000 pounds of enriched uranium
  • Keep the Strait of Hormuz open to shipping
  • End support for regional proxy groups
  • Address ballistic missile program
• Iran maintains it has a right to enrich uranium
• Iran…

The geopolitical tension continues with reports that Trump had a tense call with Israel Netanyahu on Lebanon. Trump wants Israel to slow down its bombings on Lebanon while negotiations for a cease-fire continue with Iran. Netanyahu does not want to stop the bombing.

In other geopolitical news:

• Iran also wants the release of blocked assets prior to the commencement of negotiations.
• Kuwait says Iranian attacks overnight targeted National Guard facilities, caused injuries to a number of personnel, dealt with a total of 7 drone incursions in the last 24 hours.
• Iranian military said that his forces had their finger on the trigger and remain fully ready due to the Israeli and the US failure to keep to their commitments of the ceasefire.
• Meanwhile…

In an unusual post on TruthSocial, Pres. Trump says:

Shares of Palantir reached a new low going back to June 2025 today at $122.68. The price is now trading at $128.20. The high reached $129.17.

It is great Trump has the time to post on his stock picks, with all the other stuff going. Amazing. /s

Insider trading used to be a no-no, but it is becoming more and more acceptable. Go figure.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.