Market News

The market is trying to suss out what the plan is for Iran.

Yesterday there was an interview with John Bolton that emphasized that Trump is impulsive and likes to improvise. Trump himself also outlined a 4-5 week timeline, which suggests there is a plan.

What's less clear are the goals of the mission, which might be as simple as wrecking Iran's military infrastructure. But what if Iran keeps on firing drones and missiles? What if it continues to threaten or attack its neighbours?

War can always go sideways, much like it has for Russia in Ukraine. So far Iran doesn't appear to have much support for foreign powers so maybe this turns out differently but it's also hard to see any regime change in Iran without changing anything on the ground. It…

• Expected was +5.0% (some at 5.5%)
• Prior was -14.9%
• Private house approvals +1.1% vs +0.4% prior
• Building approvals +8.7% y/y vs +13.3% prior

This is a sharp two-month drop in construction activity but think of it more as a normalization. Australian dwelling approvals were characterised by significant monthly volatility through 2025, driven almost entirely by the multi-unit segment. The headline seasonally adjusted series swung from +12.0% in September to -6.4% in October, then surged 15.2% in November — reaching a near four-year high of 18,406 dwellings — before reversing sharply with a 14.9% decline in December to 15,542 units.

The pattern reflects the lumpy nature of apartment and higher-density project approvals, which can swing 25-35% in a…

• Prior was 2.6%
• Jobs-to-applicants ratio 1.18 vs 1.19 expected
• Prior ratio 1.19

Japan's unemployment rate held at 2.6% for four consecutive months through December, up from 2.4% in June and a cycle low of 2.2% in mid-2024. While 2.6% remains low by international standards, the gradual upward drift represents a notable shift in a labour market that had been tightening steadily since the pandemic and that continued in January with a 2.7% reading.

The jobs-to-applicants ratio reinforces the picture of modest cooling. The December reading edged up to 1.19 from 1.18 in October and November — the lowest level since January 2022. The ratio peaked above 1.30 in late 2023 and has declined steadily as employers grow more cautious amid elevated input…

New Zealand building consents rose 1.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, clawing back some of December's 4.5% decline. The monthly number is fine but the real story here is in the annual figures — and for the first time in a while, there's something constructive to talk about.

In the year ended January 2026, 36,944 new homes were consented, up 9.3% from a year earlier. That's a meaningful turn after two years of relentless declines that took the pipeline from nearly 50,000 consents down to the mid-33,000s. We're not back to boom-era levels but the bleeding has clearly stopped and the recovery is gaining traction.

Multi-unit homes are doing the heavy lifting. Townhouses and flats rose 14% on the year to 16,175 consents while…

• S&P and NASDAQ indices erase war declines and close higher on the day
• Reports of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz is sending oil prices back higher
• Trump; US continues to carry out large scale combat operations in Iran
• Gold’s "Blow-off Top": Geopolitical Spike Meets Technical Resistance
• ISM Manufacturing PMI for February 52.4 versus 51.8 estimate
• S&P Global manufacturing PMI for February 51.7 versus 52.0 estimate
• What are the central bankers talking about as war rages
• US Sec of War Hegseth: Iran cannot have nuclear weapons and takes guts to enforce that
• investingLive European markets wrap: Oil stays bid, dollar firms on US-Iran conflict
• Swiss franc tumbles after SNB warning earlier

Stocks recover as war headlines collide with strong data and…

• Iran refused to cease its pursuit of nuclear weapons
• Regime ballistic missile program was growing rapidly
• Would have soon had missiles capable of reaching America
• Ensuring they cannot obtain nuclear weapon
• Ensuring cannot fund or direct armies outside their borders
• We are ahead of our time projections
• An Iran with nuclear weapons would be intolerable to US
• We projected 4 – 5 weeks but can go longer

Trump, transitions from war to the bit beautiful ballroom ... and goes off the rails.

• Iran refused to cease its pursuit of nuclear weapons
• Regime ballistic missile program was growing rapidly
• Would have soon had missiles capable of reaching America
• Ensuring they cannot obtain nuclear weapon
• Ensuring cannot fund or direct armies outside their borders
• We are ahead of our time projections
• An Iran with nuclear weapons would be intolerable to US
• We projected 4 – 5 weeks but can go longer

Trump, transitions from war to the bit beautiful ballroom ... and goes off the rails.

• Prior month 52.6
• ISM Manufacturing PMI 52.4 vs 51.8 estimate

DETAILS:

• Manufacturing PMI®: 52.4 vs 52.6 last month

• New Orders: 55.8 vs 57.1 last month

• Production: 53.5 vs 55.9 last month

• Employment: 48.8 vs 48.1 last month

• Supplier Deliveries: 55.1 vs 54.4 last month

• Inventories: 48.8 vs 47.6 last month

• Customers’ Inventories: 38.8 vs 38.7 last month

• Prices Paid: 70.5 vs 59.0 last month

• Backlog of Orders: 56.6 vs 51.6 last month

• New Export Orders: 50.3 vs 50.2 last month

• Imports: 54.9 vs 50.0 last month

Summary:

• 7 components were above the 50 expansion level, signaling growth:

  • Manufacturing PMI®

  • New Orders

  • Production

  • Supplier Deliveries

  • Prices

  • Backlog of Orders

  • Imports

• 3 components were below 50, indicating contraction:

  • Employment

  • Inventories

  • Customers’ Inventories

• <p data-start="455"…

• Prior month 51.2 revise from 52.4
• S&P Global manufacturing PMI 51.6 versus 51.2 expected

EUROPEAN SESSION

In the European session, we get the final PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. The data isn't going to change anything for the respective central banks and will certainly be overshadowed by the conflict in the Middle East. In fact, depending on the length of the conflict, all the data could become obsolete as higher oil prices and weakness in the stock markets could negatively affect economic activity.

AMERICAN SESSION

In the American session, we get the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. The index is expected to tick lower to 51.5 vs 52.6 prior. The S&P Global US PMIs were weaker than expected and lower than previous month. The agency noted that "a combination of weakened demand, high prices, and adverse weather…

Comments from U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth

• U.S. will conclude operations under “America First” conditions.

• Iran was building a shield for nuclear ambition

• This is not an endless war.

• Iran operation will include casualties.

• Operation is not directed at Iraq and is not an endless war.

• U.S. mission in Iran is to destroy Iran’s missiles, navy, and deny Tehran nuclear weapons capability.

• Conflict is not a regime-change war, although he noted the regime “did change.”

• We did not start this war, but under Trump we are finishing it

• Iran has long range strike capability

The top US general Caine:

• This is not a single overnight operation.
• We expect to take additional losses.
• This is major combat operations
• Flow of forces to reaching continues

The flow of…

Headlines:

• Gold prices surge as US-Iran conflict triggers a flight to safety: Record highs in sight
• This Technical Map Shows Oil's Technical Analysis Before and After the War
• Dollar holds firmer across the board as markets digest US-Iran conflict
• Swiss franc tumbles after SNB warning earlier
• We are more prepared to intervene in FX market in view of international situation - SNB
• Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery forced to shut down after reported drone attack
• QatarEnergy halts LNG production after military attacks on its facilities
• EU reportedly says that there is no immediate impact to oil security from US-Iran conflict
• Germany January retail sales -0.9% vs -0.2% m/m expected
• Eurozone February final manufacturing PMI 50.8 vs 50.8 prelim
• UK February…