Market News

The European Commission is said to have sent an email to EU governments, in noting that it sees no immediate impact on the bloc's security of oil supply from the situation in the Middle East. That according to Reuters, who has glanced over the email details with it stating that:

"At this stage, we do not foresee an immediate oil SOS (security of supply) impact."

That being said, the EU is considering to convene an ad-hoc meeting of its oil coordination group later this week. Adding that it has requested member states to share their oil security of supply assessments by the end of today.

Well, I would say that the situation is rather fluid at the moment. With all eyes still resting on how long the conflict may endure in the Middle East and…

• Prior 51.8

Key findings:

• New export orders rise at quickest pace in four and-a-half years
• Business sentiment stays close to January's recent high

Comment:

Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence

“UK manufacturing has made an encouraging start to 2026. Output rose at the quickest pace in 17 months during February, building on a solid upturn in January, as companies enjoy rising intakes of new work from both the home and overseas markets. Growth of new export business hit a four-and-a-half year high, as improving client confidence in markets such as North America, mainland China, the EU and Middle East led to new contract wins.

"The outlook also remains positive. Business optimism among manufacturers stayed close to January's…

• Prior 49.5

Germany's improvement is the main story driving the recovery in the euro area manufacturing sector to start the new year. Hopes of a sustained return to growth is making for a more optimistic picture at the moment. The headline reading is a 44-month high with the manufacturing output index also moving up to 51.9, its highest in six months.

The only slight concern is that the latest survey data signalled an intensification of inflationary pressures. That as input prices rose sharply to a 38-month high while output charges registered a back-to-back monthly rise for only the second time in almost three years.

HCOB notes that:

“This seems to be a broad-based recovery of the eurozone manufacturing sector, with six out of the eight…

• Prior was 49.1

Key findings:

• Business expectations reach highest since February 2022

Comment:

Commenting on the PMI data, Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said:

“It finally looks like things are turning around for Germany’s manufacturing sector. For the first time in over three-and-a-half years, the headline PMI has climbed back above 50. That’s thanks to faster growth in output, a solid jump in new orders - helped a bit by stronger export demand - and longer delivery times, which usually signal rising demand. Most of the gains came from makers of intermediate and capital goods. For a sector that hasn’t had much to celebrate in recent years, this is already a pretty upbeat development.

“Input prices shot up in…

• Prior 51.2

More to come..

• Prior 48.1

Key findings:

• Fresh growth in output and new orders, ending two-month run of decline
• Brightest 12-month outlook in just over five years
• Intensification of cost and charge inflation

Comment:

Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said:

“In February, we saw tentative signs of improvement in Italy’s manufacturing sector, but this is not yet a meaningful step forward. The recent uptick, following two weak months, still rests on a fragile foundation. Only if a more sustained recovery emerges over the coming months, marked by continuous growth in production and new orders, can we then speak of a genuine upswing in manufacturing. Until then, the situation remains strained.

“In the latest…

• Prior 48.8

Hopes for a recovery in the Swiss industry were dashed with this being another contractionary reading in February. This marks a 38th straight month that Switzerland's manufacturing sector recorded below the 50-point growth threshold. Of note, production slumped back lower with new orders also softening once again. The details:

It reaffirms that the environment for the Swiss industry remains challenging. The only positive is that the Swiss economy relies much more on the services sector. However, the main focus right now is more on the inflation battle and that's what the SNB is also finding it tough to work out amid a stronger Swiss franc currency.

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 1.31%, Shanghai Composite up 0.00%, Hang Seng down 1.70% ASX down 0.18%
• Commodities : Gold at $5,376.70 (2.46%) Silver at $93.433 (1.29%), Brent Oil at $77.44 (6.25%), WTI Oil at $71.04 (5.94%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 3.970, UK 10-year yield at 4.2360, Germany 10-year yield at 2.6527

• (CAD) GDP m/m  0.2% to 0.1%  expected

Asian stock markets plunged on Monday, tracking heavy losses on Wall Street Friday, as investors reacted to escalating geopolitical tensions after hostilities erupted between the United States, Israel, and Iran over the weekend. Diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran regarding Iran’s nuclear program…

• Prior 49.2

That's a slight improvement to the January estimate, as production levels were seen broadly stable in February. That being said, the order books declined for a third straight month albeit at a slower rate at least. On the price front, Spanish manufacturers saw another steep rise in input prices with the rate of inflation edging up from the start of the year to a 13-month high. So, that's something to be wary about.

HCOB notes that:

“Spain’s manufacturing sector continues to struggle to gain traction. Following two slight declines in December and January, the current headline PMI reading of 50 signals stagnation, suggesting that the manufacturing sector entered this winter with less momentum than during large parts of the previous…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast |02 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

U.S. markets reacted negatively to mixed labor data showing rising jobless claims and tariff hikes on South Korea, pressuring major indexes like the Dow and Nasdaq, while oil surged on Iran tensions and the dollar weakened to multi-year lows, highlighting trade policy and geopolitics as dominant drivers over macro releases.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders face a packed Monday with key manufacturing PMIs across the region and escalating geopolitical risks driving commodities. Gold has surged to around $5,300 per ounce amid US-Iran tensions, boosting safe-haven demand, while oil prices are poised to climb above $90 on…