Market News

Reuters is reporting:

• Qatar is sending a negotiating team to Tehran to help secure a end of war deal

Pakistan Army chief warns that the visit to Tehran does not mean a deal is within reach.

The price of crude oil has moved to a low of $95.46. The current price is trading at $96.10. The price is below a swing area between $96.34 and $97.34. That is close risk. Staying below is more bearish and opens the door for more downside.

A move above that area would likely disappoint the sellers on the break. A move above and then the $100 level would have traders looking back to the near converged 100 and 200 hour MAs are at $100.93.

WSJ Norman is now saying the draft deals are not accurate.

Rubio is also speaking and says that he would like to…

Headlines:

• US-Iran developments still the main focus ahead of the weekend
• Pakistan interior minister said to have met with Iran foreign minister again - report
• Iran state media claims 35 vessels passed through Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours
• USD/JPY continues to edge higher as yen bias stays bearish amid negative macro backdrop
• How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?
• ECB President Lagarde says ECB will follow a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach
• ECB policymaker Demarco says that the ECB will probably need to hike in June
• BOJ governor Ueda says discussed economic, market events with prime minister Takaichi
• German consumer sentiment recovers slightly going into June but dark clouds remain
• German business…

• Prior was 2.4% (revised to +2.8%)
• PPI Y/Y +11.4% vs +7.8% prior (revised to +8.4%)
• Raw materials price index M/M +2.6% vs +12.0% prior (revised to +11.9%)
• Raw material price index Y/Y +31.6% vs +23.6% prior (revised to +23.4%)

StatCan notes: "the PPI rose 2.0% in April, the fourth consecutive monthly increase for the index. Disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, an important global shipping lane for petroleum and other products, exerted significant upward pressure on the prices of several commodities for the second consecutive month. Most notably, the supply disruption influenced prices for energy and petroleum products, chemicals and chemical products, and unwrought aluminum and aluminum alloys (under the primary non-ferrous metal…

• Prior month 0.7%
• Retail sales 0.9% vs 0.6% estimate
• Retail sales ex autos 1.4% vs 0.9% estimate

Other details:

• Retail sales rose 0.9% in March to $72.7 billion.
• Four of nine subsectors posted gains, led by gasoline stations and fuel vendors.
• Core retail sales (excluding gasoline stations/fuel vendors and motor vehicle/parts dealers) fell 0.1% in March.
• Retail sales volumes declined 0.7% in March, indicating lower real spending after adjusting for prices.
• First-quarter 2026 retail sales increased 2.1%, marking the seventh consecutive quarterly gain.
• Retail sales volumes rose 1.2% in Q1 2026.

The problem is in the ex Gas. The number was not so hot if you take out the gains from gas (higher prices). The retail sales volume declined by -0.7% . …

Among the 35 vessels claimed to have passed through the strait in the past 24 hours, it includes oil tankers, container ships, and other commercial vessels. That at least according to the Iran state media. While the headline may seem positive, just be wary that it must not be taken at face value.

Earlier in the week, Iran claimed that there were 26 vessels that moved through the strait on Monday. However, independent analytics show that only around 10 ships crossed the waterway during that period. They did include Chinese vessels and a South Korean oil tanker but otherwise, traffic privileges remain mostly tied to smaller cargo ships and container ships.

As such, I'd wait on actual shipping data to confirm the claims provided by Iran here.…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 2.59%, Shanghai Composite up 0.47% Hang Seng up 1.27% ASX up 0.47%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,529.72 (-0.32%) Silver at $76.868 (-0.22%), Brent Oil at $103.90 (-0.97%), WTI Oil at $97.09 (-0.93%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.570, UK 10-year yield at 4.9680, Germany 10-year yield at 3.1012

• (USD) Unemployment Claims  209K  to 210K   expected

Asia-Pacific markets traded higher Friday as investors monitored diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran aimed at easing tensions in the Middle East. Sentiment improved despite reports that Tehran plans to keep its enriched uranium stockpile within the country, a move that could complicate…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 22 May 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Asian stocks rose for a second day, fueled by optimism over U.S.-Iran peace talks, while the U.S. dollar held near six-week highs amid elevated Treasury yields and hawkish Federal Reserve repricing that weighed heavily on regional Asian currencies. Japan’s yen was particularly impacted after April’s core inflation dropped to 1.4% YoY (below the 1.7% forecast), signaling a slower Bank of Japan rate normalization path and keeping the yen under pressure alongside other regional FX like the Australian dollar, Indian rupee, and Indonesian rupiah.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Traders entering the European and U.S. sessions should…

• Business climate index 84.9 vs 84.2 expected
• Prior 84.4; revised to 84.5
• Current conditions 86.1 vs 85.1 expected
• Prior 85.4
• Expectations 83.8 vs 83.5 expected
• Prior 83.3; revised to 83.5

German business sentiment unexpectedly rises in May as both the current conditions and outlook indices also reflected an uptick compared to April. That being said, the readings are still relatively subdued as the headline estimate in April was the lowest since May 2020. So, the latest uptick here is just a marginal improvement on that.

Overall, the Middle East conflict continues to bring in dark clouds that are hanging over the German economy. And companies are still largely more pessimistic about how things will be in the months ahead.

For some context, the…

US Stocks Tread Water as Peace Negotiations Roll On – Dow up 0.5%
US equity markets closed modestly higher overnight, although trading conditions remained choppy as investors continued to assess developments surrounding a possible peace agreement in the Middle East. While optimism around a deal continues to provide some support for risk sentiment, ongoing divisions between the parties kept markets cautious throughout the session.

The Dow Jones led the gains, rising 0.55% to close at 50,258, while the S&P 500 added 0.17% to finish at 7,445. The Nasdaq also edged higher, gaining 0.09% to close at 26,293. Despite the positive finish for equities, broader market conviction remained limited as traders continued to monitor geopolitical…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 22 May 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Overnight U.S. trading saw a mix of softer labor signals from higher jobless claims and firmer regional manufacturing data, while geopolitical anxieties around the Middle East lifted oil and energy stocks; the net effect was a renewed Treasury selloff (higher yields), a firmer dollar, stronger crude prices, and a rotation within equities from long-duration tech into energy and cyclical names as investors rebalanced around growth, rates, and commodity risk.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Japan’s April CPI could shift expectations for the Bank of Japan and trigger a quick move in USD/JPY. Beyond that, oil remains the main cross-asset…