Market News

The use of a B-1 bomber, the first since fighting with Iran resumed, marks a clear step up in the scale of US strikes and signals Washington may be preparing for a broader campaign rather than the more limited strikes seen in recent days. That escalation risk, layered on top of an unresolved standoff over the Strait of Hormuz and a fresh Houthi attack on Saudi shipping, keeps a substantial geopolitical premium embedded in oil prices and raises the risk of a sharper supply disruption across two major chokepoints at once. Ongoing Qatari mediated talks aimed at reopening the strait offer a potential de-escalation path, but reports that Iran has not accepted the latest proposal suggest markets should not expect a near term resolution. With…

The blowout employment number and jump in participation gives the RBA scope to keep its hawkish bias alive without committing to actual policy tightening, and markets reacted accordingly, with the Australian dollar jumping and short term yields rising around 5bp on the data. The move in the yield reflects a modest repricing of hike risk into the August 11-12 meeting, though the quarterly average unemployment rate of 4.4%, still above the RBA's own 4.2% forecast, alongside underemployment and underutilisation both sitting at multi-month highs, complicates a clean hawkish read. On balance, another 25bp hike in August looks a lower probability outcome than the report's headline strength might suggest, given the RBA has already held steady in…

Australia Employment Change Jun: 76.3K

• expected 15.0K, prior 40.3K

Unemployment Rate: 4.4%

• expected 4.4%, prior 4.4%

Full Time Employment Change: 29.3K

• prior 5.2K

Part Time Employment Change: 47.0K

• prior 35.2K

Participation Rate: 67.0%

• expected 66.7%, prior 66.7%

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The data will be welcomed by the RBA, it keeps the door open to further rate hikes but doesn not guarantee them. I doubt they'll hike at thier next meeting:

 

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian June 2026 jobs report, just the numbers here on this post.

A very strong job added number, tempered somewhat by most being part-time. 

I'll have more to come on this separately.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.

• prior close 6.7750

Injects 204bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Oil's push to a fresh six week high reflects a rapidly escalating risk premium as two of the world's most important chokepoints, the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb, both face active threats to shipping in the same session. Iran's claim of control over the Hormuz route, and its warning that tankers cannot pass without coordination, raises the prospect of a de facto disruption to a corridor carrying a substantial share of global crude and LNG flows, even before any confirmed stoppage in actual throughput. The Houthi blockade declaration against Saudi Arabia adds a second, largely independent threat vector in the Red Sea, compounding insurance and freight costs for tankers regardless of which route they attempt. The build in US crude…

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader…

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards say one of three oil tankers caught fire after explosion south of Strait of Hormuz

• Say two other tankers turned back after incident south of Strait of Hormuz
• Say no tanker will enter or leave Strait of Hormuz without coordination with Iran

Earlier:

• Oil: Houthis ferocious strikes on two Saudi oil tankers
• US surges forces to Middle East

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Signs of a delayed, piecemeal approach to USMCA renegotiation add to the uncertainty already weighing on North American trade flows, particularly for autos, steel and aluminum exporters awaiting relief from Section 232 tariffs. Markets are likely to view an interim deal with Mexico as more achievable near term, given Mexico's direct engagement in bilateral talks, while a genuine breakthrough with Canada looks harder to square with Trump's freshly imposed 50% tariff on a swathe of Canadian goods this same week. That escalation raises real questions over how credible Greer's timeline for a Canada arrangement by year end actually is, and whether Ottawa's exclusion from the Mexico talks leaves it with little leverage to negotiate better…

A steady headline unemployment rate would offer only limited reassurance to the RBA given both banks' emphasis on broader signs of labour market slack building beneath the surface. Westpac's focus on a corrected underemployment series showing a material rise, rather than the previously reported sideways trend, points to a softer underlying jobs picture than earlier data suggested. CBA's flagged risk of a downside surprise to 4.3% could briefly support the case for a more dovish RBA reading, though both banks agree the medium term trend is toward gradually higher unemployment.

For the Australian dollar, a steady headline print is likely to be a non-event, but any softer than expected outcome, particularly a dip toward 4.3% or weaker…

The attack marks a significant escalation in the Houthis' campaign against Saudi shipping and threatens to further disrupt tanker traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. A declared closure of the strait to Saudi flagged tankers, combined with reports that nearly ten vessels have already diverted, points to rising freight and insurance costs and could prompt shippers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. The threat to strike Saudi oil refineries directly raises the stakes considerably, given the kingdom's role as the world's largest oil exporter, and is likely to add a fresh risk premium to crude prices. Markets will be watching closely for any Saudi response and whether…

The military buildup raises the risk of further escalation in a conflict that has already disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly a fifth of global oil flows before the war began. Continued Iranian attacks on commercial vessels transiting the strait, combined with Houthi threats in the Red Sea, keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices and elevate freight and insurance costs for shipping through the region. Any move toward strikes on Iranian infrastructure, as floated by President Trump, would likely trigger a sharper reaction in crude markets given the potential for direct retaliation against energy assets or further disruption to the strait. Congressional approval of additional war…