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According to Semafor, the Trump administration is involved in discussions aimed at securing a temporary peace deal. Vice President JD Vance has reportedly sent a letter to Tehran in an effort to revive negotiations, although Trump downplayed the initiative and framed it around humanitarian needs.

The diplomatic push comes alongside preparations for a potential resumption of hostilities. An administration official told Semafor that US forces could resume combat operations shortly after the midterm elections, with the military reportedly requiring only presidential authorization.

However, there is no consensus within the administration on the merits of renewed strikes. Several officials remain skeptical about escalating the conflict, while…

The central bank bonanza this week continues as we move to Europe, with the ECB decision up next on the agenda today. After all the drama over the past day, we should likely get a much less exciting event later from the ECB later.

The central bank is widely expected to leave key interest rates unchanged, with markets pricing in roughly 87% odds of a hold. That should keep the deposit rate at 2.50% following the 25 bps rate hike in September already. So barring any major surprises, the policy decision itself should be a relatively straightforward affair.

The real question is whether ECB president Lagarde can get through her press conference without giving traders much of any reason to rethink December. Markets are currently pricing in around…

The two services share one brand but run on separate terms; the prop programme is an evaluation on simulated accounts, not a brokerage service.

Velaris Markets (https://velarismarkets.com)gives traders two distinct ways to reach the markets under a single brand. On the brokerage side, clients trade CFDs on forex, indices and commodities through MetaTrader 5. On the prop side, the firm runs trading challenges on simulated accounts of up to $100,000; traders who pass and verify their identity are issued a funded simulated account and keep 80% of the profit earned on it, paid out as a reward. Both services went live in July 2026.

Two broker accounts, nothing required to start

The Standard account carries spreads from 1.2 pips with no…

As if there wasn't enough on the agenda for traders this week, let's not forget that there is also month-end shenanigans to deal with potentially.

Let's dive straight into it and see what the banks are saying about October's month-end flows and how they might impact major currencies.

To start, Barclays is flagging a weak dollar buying signal against most major currencies, though with no clear directional bias against the euro or yen. In other words, there is a slight positive tilt in favour of the dollar but hardly anything to get too excited about.

Meanwhile, Deutsche sees a more mixed picture for the dollar this time around as their month-end rebalancing model is hinting that cross-currency flows might potentially play a bigger role this…

Gold staged a brief relief rally yesterday after the Fed delivered a largely neutral decision but failed to extend the gains above a key resistance zone. That was an odd reaction considering that Fed Chair Warsh didn’t even hint to an imminent rate hike and said a whole lot of nothing.

This should keep gold supported in the short-term as real yields continue to slowly edge lower amid higher inflation expectations and relatively stable nominal yields. Meanwhile, the US-Iran negotiations remain at a stalemate, although we’ve seen a stronger push this week, with US Vice President Vance reportedly sending a letter to Iran to revive peace talks.

Today, we get some important US economic…

European stocks are looking rather mixed at the open today, with slight gains across most major indices while Spanish stocks continue to struggle on the week. The broader mood remains cautious, especially with US futures also pointing to a softer start later for Wall Street. Here are the opening changes:

• Eurostoxx -0.1%
• Germany DAX +0.3%
• France CAC 40 +0.7%
• UK FTSE 100 +0.4%
• Spain IBEX -1.0%
• Italy FTSE MIB -0.4%

Spain continues to be the standout here, with the IBEX falling another 1.0% after yesterday's 1.5% decline saw the index hit a three-month low.

Spanish banking stocks have been a major drag lately, with Santander tumbling 5.6% yesterday despite reporting a 19% rise in profits. The spillover impact from the Brazil election shock is still…

For all the hype coming into this week, it seems that gold might need more drama than a Fed meeting and big tech earnings to get out of bed. The thing is now is that if those aren't enough to get things moving, what will?

The Fed was a bit of a non-event, failing to offer much to markets in the grand scheme of things. Meanwhile, big tech earnings were mixed but tech shares are lower at the balance in after-hours trading. With all that, the bond market is not really budging as well with 10-year Treasury yields still stuck near 5%. As such, gold is finding little reason to go anywhere even with the Fed decision behind us and AI spending concerns resurfacing.

The hourly chart also exemplifies how uninspiring the key risk events overnight have…

Each service has its own terms; the prop service uses demo accounts and is not a brokerage service.

Velaris Markets (https://velarismarkets.com) operates two services under one brand. Its brokerage offers CFDs on forex, indices, commodities and crypto on MetaTrader 5. Its prop service runs trading challenges on simulated accounts of up to $100,000: traders who pass and verify their identity receive a funded simulated account and 80% of the profit on that account, paid as a reward. Both services launched in July 2026.

Brokerage: two account types, no minimum deposit

The Standard account has spreads from 1.2 pips and no commission. The ECN account has spreads from 0.0 pips plus a commission of $7 per lot round turn on forex and metals. There…

Fed chair Warsh talked and markets listened. But by the end of it all, everyone pretty much went home with the same hand that they were dealt with in looking to the next meeting in December. So much for a productive Fed meeting, eh?

While yesterday's decision and press conference didn't exactly shake things up, today's US PCE inflation report might have a better shot at doing so.

Traders are currently still pricing in roughly 84% odds of a 25 bps rate hike for December, not all too much changed from the roughly 88% odds before that. And with Warsh tossing the ball back to economic data to decide the state of play, we'll get to see whether the inflation numbers actually justify the market confidence.

Here is what is expected for the September…

There are just a couple of key expiry levels to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.

The first is for EUR/USD at the 1.1100 level, which sits around 30 pips from the spot price. As things stand, the pair is still holding on to support closer to the 14 October low of 1.1111 for now. So, that will be the more immediate key downside level to watch. However, the expiries will add a secondary layer for sellers to chew through in trying to secure the next leg lower.

So if price momentum continues to favour a softer EUR/USD, just be wary that the expiries at 1.1100 may be a factor in holding price action from running too far, too fast in the session ahead. That is provided we don't see too much else happening in markets as…