Market News

• Trump says reopening Hormuz "a simple military manoeuver" with "so little risk"
• US made detailed preparations for potential ground troops in Iran - report
• US assessment: Iran could keep Hormuz shut for anywhere from one to six months
• Iran unwilling to discuss Hormuz while under attack - report
• Canada January retail sales +1.1% vs +1.5% expected
• Canada February producer price index +0.4% m/m vs +1.1% expected
• Feds Waller: If oil stays high for months on end, at some point it bleeds into inflation
• Fed's Bowman: I am still concerned about the jobs market
• The Fed funds futures market is now pricing in a 30% chance of a US rate hike
• Trump reportedly mulls occupying Kharg Island to force Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz

Markets:

• Gold down $143 to $4502
• US…

• At a certain point, the Strait will open itself
• I think Israel will be ready to end the war when the US wants it to end
• I don't want to do a ceasefire
• We can have dialogue but I don't want to do a ceasefire
• On Hormuz: It would be nice if China and Japan got involved
• On UK help: A very late response, they should have acted faster
• Says lacks radar, aircraft, and leadership, with a firm stance against a ceasefire
• We have unlimited ammunition and a lot of troops
• On oil prices, Trump said he expected worse
• Repeats that operation is "weeks ahead" of schedule
• We don't need to Strait of Hormuz

So the context of the ceasefire comment is that Iran said it won't negotiate without a ceasefire while Trump is saying they can "have dialogue" but that he doesn't…

• At a certain point, the Strait will open itself
• I think Israel will be ready to end the war when the US wants it to end
• I don't want to do a ceasefire
• We can have dialogue but I don't want to do a ceasefire
• On Hormuz: It would be nice if China and Japan got involved
• On UK help: A very late response, they should have acted faster
• Says lacks radar, aircraft, and leadership, with a firm stance against a ceasefire
• We have unlimited ammunition and a lot of troops
• On oil prices, Trump said he expected worse
• Repeats that operation is "weeks ahead" of schedule
• We don't need to Strait of Hormuz

So the context of the ceasefire comment is that Iran said it won't negotiate without a ceasefire while Trump is saying they can "have dialogue" but that he doesn't…

Comments from Netanyahu:

• Iran has no capacity to enrich uranium or make ballistic missiles following 20 days of war
• Iran has few ballistic missiles left
• It's too soon to tell if Iranians will take to the streets
• Will attack Iran's leaders
• I pledged to change the Middle East, and we have done so, and Israel has become a regional superpower
• Iran had thousands of ballistic missiles and was threatening to topple our towers, but what falls are the towers of Tehran and Beirut
• Campaign will take as long as necessary
• Israel is helping the US to open Hormuz
• There are many possibilities for a ground component, will not share what they are
• We can not do a revolution from the air, there needs to be a ground component as well
• Air strikes are not enough, ground…

Pentagon officials have made detailed preparations for deploying US ground forces into Iran, according to a CBS report.

The report says Trump is deliberating whether to position ground forces in the region.

"No, I'm not putting troops anywhere," Trump said yesterday but quickly added: "If I were, I certainly wouldn't tell you."

I wonder why this was leaked. I tend to think it might be something to bring Iran to the negotiating table but it could also be from those who think sending troops to the Middle East is a grave mistake.

Finally, it could all be part of the usual planning and options that all military officials are constantly doing. So far, the reports we have are that two units of Marines have been deployed, with about 2200 soldiers…

CNN is out with a report highlighting the difficulty of reopening the Strait of Hormuz:

US officials are furiously trying to avert a potential months-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz, privately acknowledging that reopening the key waterway is a problem without a clear solution

The report from the Defense Intelligence Agency said it could remain shut from 1-6 months, citing four sources familiar.

An official pushed back against the six-month scenario, saying:

the six month closure of the Strait of Hormuz is an impossibility and completely unacceptable to the Secretary of War

Oil is higher on this report but it's notable that this assessment isn't current, it was said to be circulating "in recent weeks" which suggests it was prepared before…

A Bloomberg report citing an Iranian official says that Iran is sticking to its hardline position on the Strait of Hormuz and unwilling to discuss opening it while it's under attack.

The report says:

Iranian officials have become reluctant to even discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz as they focus on surviving the US-Israeli onslaught, according to a person involved in direct, high-level contacts with Tehran.

It looks like early next week, we will have some kind of showdown between the US navy and Iran's soldiers near the strait. How that unfolds is uncertain because President Trump confirmed there are no plans to send troops to any place. Of course, truth is the first casualty of war and this whole thing started while peace discussions…

One of the ideas that's been floating around markets is that Trump just wanted to dramatically degrade Iran's military, it's nuclear program and its ability to make missiles. Once that was done, he would declare victory and leave it to Europe and gulf states on how to open the Strait of Hormuz. It was never clear if Iran would have accepted that but it was a possibility they would say "ok, enough, we'll live to fight another day."

Now, it looks like that's off the table and instead Trump has committed the US military to reopen Hormuz, with little help from allies. He said it would be easy but markets aren't so sure, and it also could be time consuming. Trump called it "a simple military maneuver" with "so little risk".

If that's true, it's…

Oft times, there are implications to actions. The Trump administration tends to look to solve problems with laser focus that goes above and beyond without thinking of the consequences.

The ICE/deportation implementation is an example. That is being clawed back.

The War against Iran is another major situation. Who knows what they thought how everything was going to work out - they will never tell the truth. What we do know is the pattern is that solving "the problems" (parenthetical) tend to create more problems.

Trump is now imploring Congress to pass the FARM BILL, NOW!

Why?

Fertilizer prices are rising due to the war in Iran as supply disruptions, higher energy costs, and shipping constraints hit the market simultaneously. The…

Trump is lamenting the lack of help in reopening Hormuz:

Without the U.S.A., NATO IS A PAPER TIGER! They didn't want to join the fight to stop a Nuclear Powered Iran. Now that fight is Militarily WON, with very little danger for them, they complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don't want to help open the Strait of Hormuz, a simple military maneuver that is the single reason for the high oil prices. So easy for them to do, with so little risk. COWARDS, and we will REMEMBER! President DONALD J. TRUMP

There is some generally good news here:

1) The US appears to be willing to do it alone

2) Trump sounds confident it can be done

3) He sounds ready to declare victory

So despite all the unfriendly rhetoric here, this is a…

Oft times, there are implications to actions. The Trump administration tends to look to solve problems with laser focus that goes above and beyond without thinking of the consequences.

The ICE/deportation implementation is an example. That is being clawed back.

The War against Iran is another major situation. Who knows what they thought how everything was going to work out - they will never tell the truth. What we do know is the pattern is that solving "the problems" (parenthetical) tend to create more problems.

Trump is now imploring Congress to pass the FARM BILL, NOW!

Why?

Fertilizer prices are rising due to the war in Iran as supply disruptions, higher energy costs, and shipping constraints hit the market simultaneously. The…

Trump is lamenting the lack of help in reopening Hormuz:

Without the U.S.A., NATO IS A PAPER TIGER! They didn't want to join the fight to stop a Nuclear Powered Iran. Now that fight is Militarily WON, with very little danger for them, they complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don't want to help open the Strait of Hormuz, a simple military maneuver that is the single reason for the high oil prices. So easy for them to do, with so little risk. COWARDS, and we will REMEMBER! President DONALD J. TRUMP

There is some generally good news here:

1) The US appears to be willing to do it alone

2) Trump sounds confident it can be done

3) He sounds ready to declare victory

So despite all the unfriendly rhetoric here, this is a…