Market News

One option for Trump to get energy prices down domestically would be to implement an export ban.

Politico reports:

The White House will not implement a crude export ban, and told oil executives as much at this morning’s meeting with API, per an admin official who participated in the meeting.

HFI Research illustrates some of the problems a ban would cause, as the US system is highly integrated with foreign energy.

I don't think people realize how bad a crude export ban would be for US shale producers. Here's an illustrative example. Refinery throughput would remain depressed due to crude quality mismatch. All of the crude imports will come from Canada + some from Venezuela. US shale is now landlocked, so US commercial crude storage will…

One option for Trump to get energy prices down domestically would be to implement an export ban.

Politico reports:

The White House will not implement a crude export ban, and told oil executives as much at this morning’s meeting with API, per an admin official who participated in the meeting.

HFI Research illustrates some of the problems a ban would cause, as the US system is highly integrated with foreign energy.

I don't think people realize how bad a crude export ban would be for US shale producers. Here's an illustrative example. Refinery throughput would remain depressed due to crude quality mismatch. All of the crude imports will come from Canada + some from Venezuela. US shale is now landlocked, so US commercial crude storage will…

• Prior month 0.2%
• Wholesale inventories -0.5% versus 0.2% expected.
• Wholesale sales 0.5% versus 0.3% expected. Prior month revised higher to 1.3% from 1.0% previously reported

Details:

• Wholesale sales (Jan 2026): $727.5B (+0.5% m/m, +7.5% y/y)

• Prior revision: Dec sales revised higher to +1.3% (from +1.0%)

• Inventories: $909.3B (-0.5% m/m, +1.0% y/y)

• Inventories/Sales ratio: 1.25 (down from 1.33 y/y)

Inventories are down wInventory to sales ratio falling sharply to 1.25 which is near the supply problems from Covid. Low inventories could lead to higher prices. Add tariff costs and the data is not inflation friendly.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prior month 0.745 million revised to 0.712M
• New Home sales for the month of January 0.587M vs 0.720M estimate.

Further details from the report shows:

• Inventory (Jan 2026): 476K homes (+0.4% m/m, -4.0% y/y)

• Months’ supply: 9.7 months (up from 8.0 prior, +21.3% m/m, +7.8% y/y)

• Median price: $400.5K (-4.5% m/m, -6.8% y/y)

• Average price: $499.5K (-5.9% m/m, -3.6% y/y)

This is not good and the numbers came when mortgage rates were lower. The 10 year yield which tracks mortgage rates are currently up 1.2 basis points at 4.267%. The 10 year yield all is trading near the lows for the day as the market reacts to weak data, and expectations for slower growth as a result of higher oil prices.

U.S. new-home sales are a monthly economic report that measures…

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the tariff investigations will wrap up just in time for the 150 day deadline in the current tariff regime, which could also be ruled illegal (though that would be retroactive).

Normally, this kind of investigation takes 12-18 months but despite a much larger scope of countries, this version will be done just in time to replace the July tariffs.

This all shift after the Supreme Court's February 20, 2026 ruling that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize presidential tariffs. That 6–3 decision invalidated the "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariffs and fentanyl-related duties that had been applied across dozens of trading partners.

Within hours of the ruling, President Trump imposed…

• Prior week 213K
• Initial jobs claims 205K vs 215K estimate
• 4 week moving average of initial jobless claims 210.75K versus 211.50K last week.
• Continuing claims 1.857M vs 1.850M estimate. Prior week 1.850M
• 4 week moving average of continuing claims 1.850M versus 1.852M last week
• The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending March 7 were in Missouri (+3,907), Virginia (+1,670), Pennsylvania (+1,292), California (+911), and Massachusetts (+779),
• The largest decreases were in New York (-14,567), Michigan (-2,549), New Jersey (-616), Connecticut (-471), and Vermont (-468).

REVISION TO SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTORS Note: This week's release reflects the annual revision to the weekly unemployment claims seasonal adjustment factors. The…

• Prior was +16.3

Details:

• New orders 8.6 vs 11.7 prior
• Shipments 22.2 vs 0.3 prior
• Unfilled orders -4.7 vs -12.9 prior
• Delivery times 18.9 vs -9.9 prior
• Inventories 1.4 vs -0.2 prior
• Prices paid 44.7 vs 38.9 prior
• Prices received 21.2 vs 16.7 prior
• Number of employees 0.8 vs -1.3 prior
• Average employee workweek 2.8 vs -11.6 prior

Six-months from now indicators:

• 6 month index 40.0 vs 42.8 prior
• Capex index 6-month forward 25.8 vs 14.4 prior
• New orders 49.6 vs 54.1 prior
• Shipments 53.6 vs 47.4 prior
• Unfilled orders 15.3 vs 21.4 prior
• Delivery times -4.7 vs 26.1 prior
• Inventories 16.8 vs 12.4 prior
• Prices paid 53.7 vs 54.1 prior
• Prices received 38.4 vs 50.1 prior
• Number of employees 40.4 vs 14.9 prior
• Average employee workweek 24.1 vs 27.7 prior

This latest report…

Headlines:

• The hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations continues as US-Iran war escalates
• Gold plunges to new lows as US-Iran war escalates and the Fed considers a rate hike
• Silver drops by over 5% and the chart shows that there might be more trouble up ahead
• A quick rundown of how Iran has hit back after South Pars gas field was attacked
• US explores use of govt insurance in escorting ships through Strait of Hormuz - report
• SNB leaves key policy rate unchanged at 0% in March meeting, as widely expected
• SNB chairman Schlegel: Swiss franc rise poses risk to price stability
• BOJ governor Ueda: A rate hike is possible under a temporary economic downturn
• BOJ governor Ueda says result of wage talks this year could be better than past years
• BOJ…