Market News

• Prior quarter 0.9% revised to 1.1%
• Labor productivity rate for Q4 -0.1% vs -0.1% estimate

Details of the report:

• Canadian business labour productivity fell -0.1% in Q4, as real GDP declined -0.2% while hours worked fell -0.1%.

• This follows a +1.1% productivity gain in Q3, when output rose while hours worked declined.

• The Q4 drop marks the second productivity decline in the last nine quarters.

Sector breakdown

• Goods-producing sector productivity fell -0.9% in Q4, after rising +1.8% in Q3.

• Services sector productivity rose +0.4%, following +0.6% growth in the prior quarter.

• Manufacturing and construction were the main drivers of the productivity decline.

• Information and cultural industries led productivity gains within services.

Hours worked

• Total…

Headlines:

• Iran operatives have secretly made offer to discuss terms for ending the war - NYT
• US futures pare losses, turn positive on the day
• Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery struck again by unknown projectile - report
• Switzerland February CPI +0.1% vs -0.1% y/y expected
• Eurozone January PPI +0.7% vs +0.2% m/m expected
• Eurozone February final services PMI 51.9 vs 51.8 prelim
• UK February final services PMI 53.9 vs 53.9 prelim
• BOJ governor Ueda says wage increases much needed to get inflation to price target
• G7 finance ministers and central bankers to meet early next week
• China's top legislature says willing to work with the US but will hold its 'red lines'

Markets:

• WTI crude oil flat at $74.90, falling from a high of $77.23
• Brent crude oil up just…

• Prior was +22K (revised to +11K)
• Goods +16K versus +1K last month
• Service +47K versus +21K last month
• Small business +60K vs 0K prior
• Medium businesses -7K vs +41K last month
• Large businesses +10K vs -18K last month
• Wages for job stayers 4.5% vs 4.5% last month
• Wages for job changers 6.3% vs 6.4% last month

This shouldn't be surprising given that the weekly ADP data has been pointing to a good report. The labour market has been improving steadily since the start of the year. On Friday, we get the more important US NFP report, which is likely to be a good one based on all of the jobs data we got up until now.

For background, the ADP National Employment Report is an independent monthly measure of private-sector employment in the United States,…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 04 March 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Today’s Asia session saw markets grappling with escalating US-Iran tensions, which overshadowed key macroeconomic data releases like China’s ongoing policy signals ahead of the ‘Two Sessions’ meetings (March 4-11) and Australia’s Q4 current account deficit data showing export weakness. Escalating geopolitical risks drove oil prices toward $80/barrel amid supply disruption fears, boosting energy stocks while hammering airline, tourism, and broader equities.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Escalating geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict, which have driven a sharp Dow drop of 1,200 points, surging oil prices,…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 04 March 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Today’s Asia session saw markets grappling with escalating US-Iran tensions, which overshadowed key macroeconomic data releases like China’s ongoing policy signals ahead of the ‘Two Sessions’ meetings (March 4-11) and Australia’s Q4 current account deficit data showing export weakness. Escalating geopolitical risks drove oil prices toward $80/barrel amid supply disruption fears, boosting energy stocks while hammering airline, tourism, and broader equities.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Escalating geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict, which have driven a sharp Dow drop of 1,200 points, surging oil prices,…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 3.91%, Shanghai Composite down 1.43%, Hang Seng down 2.85% ASX down 2.02%
• Commodities : Gold at $5,179.66 (1.07%) Silver at $85.093 (1.95%), Brent Oil at $82.60 (1.46%), WTI Oil at $75.36 (1.07%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.065, UK 10-year yield at 4.4640, Germany 10-year yield at 2.7752

• (EUR) Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y  2.4%  to 2.2%  expected

Asian stock markets declined sharply on Wednesday following weak global cues, as investors grew increasingly concerned about the inflationary impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict, which has now entered its fifth day. U.S. President Donald Trump suggested the war could last four to…

Stocks Hit as Middle East Conflict Escalates – S&P down 1%

Global financial markets experienced a broad-based selloff overnight as escalating tensions in the Middle East dampened hopes of a swift resolution and reignited inflation concerns. Risk sentiment deteriorated throughout the session, with equity markets finishing firmly in negative territory despite a late attempt at stabilisation. During the US session, Donald Trump stated that the United States would escort commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, offering some reassurance to markets. The Dow Jones declined 0.83% to finish at 48,501, while the S&P 500 fell 0.94% to 6,816. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the retreat, shedding 1.02% to close at 22,516. In…

Stocks Hit as Middle East Conflict Escalates – S&P down 1%

Global financial markets experienced a broad-based selloff overnight as escalating tensions in the Middle East dampened hopes of a swift resolution and reignited inflation concerns. Risk sentiment deteriorated throughout the session, with equity markets finishing firmly in negative territory despite a late attempt at stabilisation. During the US session, Donald Trump stated that the United States would escort commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, offering some reassurance to markets. The Dow Jones declined 0.83% to finish at 48,501, while the S&P 500 fell 0.94% to 6,816. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the retreat, shedding 1.02% to close at 22,516. In…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 04 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. session saw a toxic mix of hotter-than-expected PPI (0.8% MoM), resilient ISM PMI (52.4), and oil spikes from Iran tensions triggering broad selloffs in stocks, yield rises, and USD/gold gains, most impacting energy, equities, bonds, and the dollar amid revived inflation worries.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should watch persistent Middle‑East‑driven risk‑off and oil‑driven moves, China’s Two Sessions‑driven growth‑target and policy signals, and key data from South Korea (inflation, exports) and China (PMI), all of which will shape whether Asian equities, currencies, and bond markets remain defensive or…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 04 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. session saw a toxic mix of hotter-than-expected PPI (0.8% MoM), resilient ISM PMI (52.4), and oil spikes from Iran tensions triggering broad selloffs in stocks, yield rises, and USD/gold gains, most impacting energy, equities, bonds, and the dollar amid revived inflation worries.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should watch persistent Middle‑East‑driven risk‑off and oil‑driven moves, China’s Two Sessions‑driven growth‑target and policy signals, and key data from South Korea (inflation, exports) and China (PMI), all of which will shape whether Asian equities, currencies, and bond markets remain defensive or…

The New York Times reports that despite publicly refusing to negotiate with President Trump over the ongoing U.S. and Israeli military campaign, Iran appears to have quietly explored the possibility of ending the conflict. According to officials familiar with the matter, operatives from Iran’s intelligence services reached out indirectly to the C.I.A. shortly after the attacks began, proposing discussions about potential terms for ending the war. The communication was reportedly passed through a third country’s intelligence agency.

American officials, however, are doubtful that either side is genuinely prepared to pursue negotiations in the near term. In Washington, the outreach is not being treated as a serious breakthrough, particularly…