Market News

• Prior month 51.2 revise from 52.4
• S&P Global manufacturing PMI 51.6 versus 51.2 expected

EUROPEAN SESSION

In the European session, we get the final PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. The data isn't going to change anything for the respective central banks and will certainly be overshadowed by the conflict in the Middle East. In fact, depending on the length of the conflict, all the data could become obsolete as higher oil prices and weakness in the stock markets could negatively affect economic activity.

AMERICAN SESSION

In the American session, we get the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. The index is expected to tick lower to 51.5 vs 52.6 prior. The S&P Global US PMIs were weaker than expected and lower than previous month. The agency noted that "a combination of weakened demand, high prices, and adverse weather…

Comments from U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth

• U.S. will conclude operations under “America First” conditions.

• Iran was building a shield for nuclear ambition

• This is not an endless war.

• Iran operation will include casualties.

• Operation is not directed at Iraq and is not an endless war.

• U.S. mission in Iran is to destroy Iran’s missiles, navy, and deny Tehran nuclear weapons capability.

• Conflict is not a regime-change war, although he noted the regime “did change.”

• We did not start this war, but under Trump we are finishing it

• Iran has long range strike capability

The top US general Caine:

• This is not a single overnight operation.
• We expect to take additional losses.
• This is major combat operations
• Flow of forces to reaching continues

The flow of…

Headlines:

• Gold prices surge as US-Iran conflict triggers a flight to safety: Record highs in sight
• This Technical Map Shows Oil's Technical Analysis Before and After the War
• Dollar holds firmer across the board as markets digest US-Iran conflict
• Swiss franc tumbles after SNB warning earlier
• We are more prepared to intervene in FX market in view of international situation - SNB
• Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery forced to shut down after reported drone attack
• QatarEnergy halts LNG production after military attacks on its facilities
• EU reportedly says that there is no immediate impact to oil security from US-Iran conflict
• Germany January retail sales -0.9% vs -0.2% m/m expected
• Eurozone February final manufacturing PMI 50.8 vs 50.8 prelim
• UK February…

Headlines:

• Gold prices surge as US-Iran conflict triggers a flight to safety: Record highs in sight
• This Technical Map Shows Oil's Technical Analysis Before and After the War
• Dollar holds firmer across the board as markets digest US-Iran conflict
• Swiss franc tumbles after SNB warning earlier
• We are more prepared to intervene in FX market in view of international situation - SNB
• Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery forced to shut down after reported drone attack
• QatarEnergy halts LNG production after military attacks on its facilities
• EU reportedly says that there is no immediate impact to oil security from US-Iran conflict
• Germany January retail sales -0.9% vs -0.2% m/m expected
• Eurozone February final manufacturing PMI 50.8 vs 50.8 prelim
• UK February…

Things are just getting messier by the hour. QatarEnergy is the state-owned integrated energy company of Qatar. And they have just announced a stop to its LNG production and associated products. That follows attacks on its operating facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City.

For some context, Qatar ranks as among the top three LNG exporters in the world and controls roughly one-quarter of the projected global LNG supply for the next decade.

Their Ras Laffan facility in particular is dubbed the "LNG capital of the world". The restricted access to the Strait of Hormuz is one that already impacts export capabilities from Qatar but adding this latest development in is sort of a double whammy. In any case, this will…

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The European Commission is said to have sent an email to EU governments, in noting that it sees no immediate impact on the bloc's security of oil supply from the situation in the Middle East. That according to Reuters, who has glanced over the email details with it stating that:

"At this stage, we do not foresee an immediate oil SOS (security of supply) impact."

That being said, the EU is considering to convene an ad-hoc meeting of its oil coordination group later this week. Adding that it has requested member states to share their oil security of supply assessments by the end of today.

Well, I would say that the situation is rather fluid at the moment. With all eyes still resting on how long the conflict may endure in the Middle East and…

• Prior 51.8

Key findings:

• New export orders rise at quickest pace in four and-a-half years
• Business sentiment stays close to January's recent high

Comment:

Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence

“UK manufacturing has made an encouraging start to 2026. Output rose at the quickest pace in 17 months during February, building on a solid upturn in January, as companies enjoy rising intakes of new work from both the home and overseas markets. Growth of new export business hit a four-and-a-half year high, as improving client confidence in markets such as North America, mainland China, the EU and Middle East led to new contract wins.

"The outlook also remains positive. Business optimism among manufacturers stayed close to January's…

• Prior 49.5

Germany's improvement is the main story driving the recovery in the euro area manufacturing sector to start the new year. Hopes of a sustained return to growth is making for a more optimistic picture at the moment. The headline reading is a 44-month high with the manufacturing output index also moving up to 51.9, its highest in six months.

The only slight concern is that the latest survey data signalled an intensification of inflationary pressures. That as input prices rose sharply to a 38-month high while output charges registered a back-to-back monthly rise for only the second time in almost three years.

HCOB notes that:

“This seems to be a broad-based recovery of the eurozone manufacturing sector, with six out of the eight…