Market News

Trump posts on Truth Social:

IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE. THANK YOU!

Oil has cratered on the announcement from Iran's foreign minister:

That's a big head and shoulders pattern.

The market has been sniffing out a TACO since the start of the month and it's going much more smoothly than almost anyone hoped. There have really been no hiccups other than JD Vance leaving Pakistan but even that stunt was quickly downplayed.

Axios reports that a three-page MOU is under consideration that will deliver $20 billion to Iran in exchange for nuclear material likely being shipped to a third country.

The caveat here is that the Strait is open "for the remaining period of the ceasefire" but I take…

Trump is out with another message:

THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS COMPLETELY OPEN AND READY FOR BUSINESS AND FULL PASSAGE, BUT THE NAVAL BLOCKADE WILL REMAIN IN FULL FORCE AND EFFECT AS IT PERTAINS TO IRAN, ONLY, UNTIL SUCH TIME AS OUR TRANSACTION WITH IRAN IS 100% COMPLETE. THIS PROCESS SHOULD GO VERY QUICKLY IN THAT MOST OF THE POINTS ARE ALREADY NEGOTIATED. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J.TRUMP

It's odd that it's still closed now that Iran has opened its side but it sounds like this is mostly a formality as a deal is likely to come very soon on ending the war.

WTI crude oil was last down $10.83 to $83.82.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

This is the headline we've been looking for for seven weeks.

On twitter, Araghchi writes:

In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran.

It's over.

Oil is falling rapidly on this as it looks like all the elements are falling into place for a peace deal. Negotiators are set to meet on Sunday in Pakistan but that's starting to look more like a formality unless there is a big snag.

This follows a report saying that the US is considering a $20 billion cash-for-uranium deal. In terms of nuclear, it says:

Under a…

• Prior was 250.9K
• Single-detached homes- 4% m/m
• Multiple starts -3% m/m
• Seasonally adjusted starts -3%

“March housing starts data point to a continued loss of momentum in housing construction, broadly in line with CMHC’s housing market outlook. While actual starts increased compared to a year ago, this largely reflects the exceptionally low level of construction activity in the first quarter of last year,” said Mathieu Laberge, CMHC’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice‑President, Housing Insights.

Housing starts data in Canada is published monthly by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) through its Starts and Completions Survey. The data tracks the beginning of construction on new residential dwellings — both single-detached and…

Axios reports that the US and Iran are negotiating over a three-page plan to end the war.

It details:

One element under discussion being that the U.S. would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in return for Iran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium.

S&P 500 futures are up 40 points, roughly doubling on the headlines.

Importantly, the report also says that there has been "steady progress" in negotiations though "significant gaps remain".

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It's been that kind of week in European trading, where markets are left in a bit of a bind but keeping the steady optimism for the most part. US-Iran developments continue to be the key thing to watch out for and market players are hanging on to hope that there will be some good news ahead of the ceasefire deadline on 22 April next week.

In doing his part, US president Trump continues to fuel the optimism as he says the war will be over "very soon". And there are multiple reports about both sides looking for further progress in general. However, it's still a case of having to wait and see.

For now, markets are definitely running with the narrative that good news will eventually come. The only question is when exactly will we see a material…

Headlines:

• Oil prices remain under pressure amid US-Iran deal optimism. What's next?
• Markets keep with the more optimistic view in the final stretch of the week
• Gold struggles to gain steam amid US-Iran optimism as neutral Fed caps momentum
• IEA chief Birol says release of more emergency oil reserves is under consideration
• How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?
• BoE's Breeden: Iran war raises risk that vulnerabilities could crystallise
• Euro area trade balance moves back to surplus in February just before US-Iran conflict

Markets:

• Brent crude down 3% to $96.40
• WTI crude (May contract) down 3.5% to $91.30, WTI crude (June contract) down 3.5% to $88.00
• June contract for WTI has more open interest and volume, provides a…

Trade balance in the euro area already recorded a deficit of €1.0 billion (revised) in January, but at least returned to a surplus in February with an estimate of €11.5 billion. This improvement was primarily driven by the machinery and vehicles sector, where the surplus rose from €1.5 bn in January 2026 to €10.2 bn in February.

But considering the fact that surging energy prices will be a factor starting from the March report, this latest one for February is not relevant whatsoever anymore. The euro area imports roughly 60% of its energy requirements and as such, we will observe a big terms-of-trade shock in the data next month.

For some context, the trade balance in the euro area typically keeps at a surplus but ran a massive deficit for…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 17 April 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Markets traded mixed-to-lower amid thin data flow, prioritizing U.S.-Iran ceasefire progress that capped oil below $100 and buoyed weekly equity gains despite intraday caution from Middle East risks; instruments like WTI crude, CNH/USD, Nikkei, and Kospi bore the brunt, reflecting stabilized commodities and soft risk appetite.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Traders face a risk-on environment fueled by President Trump’s comments on ending the Iran war soon, potential US-Iran talks, and an Israel-Lebanon truce, which have lifted oil prices lower to $90.12 and supported Wall Street futures (S&P +0.08%, Dow +0.15%) following…

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.90%, Shanghai Composite down 0.30% Hang Seng down 1.40% ASX down 0.28%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,814.96 (0.14%) Silver at $78.978 (0.34%), Brent Oil at $98.21 (-1.20%), WTI Oil at $93.46 (-1.31%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.319, UK 10-year yield at 4.8530, Germany 10-year yield at 3.0319

News & Data:

• (USD) Unemployment Claims  207K to 213K  expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets opened lower Friday as cautious optimism over developments in the Middle East tempered investor sentiment, diverging from Wall Street’s record-setting rally. U.S. President Donald Trump said the conflict involving Iran “should be ending pretty soon,” reinforcing expectations of…