Market News

• On possible release of more emergency oil reserves, "we are not there yet"
• However, it is definitely under consideration
• We should prepare ourselves for volatile markets for some time
• If Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, we must prepare for significantly higher energy prices
• We estimate it will take approximately two years for overall oil production to reach pre-war levels again
• The push for use of electric vehicles will increase faster than previously anticipated

It looks like Japan will have to act in an isolated manner to push for their next round of emergency oil reserves release. With prices looking much calmer in the past week or so, you can bet that the US and Trump won't have as much appetite to force the issue this time around.

As for…

• China signals loose policy, boosts fiscal and tech investment push
• ICYMI: IEA warns Europe may have ~6 weeks of jet fuel
• India ICYMI: RBI FX intervention intensifies, curbs refiners’ dollar buying
• NZ PM Luxon rejects leadership challenge as political pressure builds - watch the kiwi
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8622 (vs. estimate at 6.8206)
• Singapore exports surge on AI demand, beating forecasts
• Japan officials' 'no comment' when asked if BoJ hike delay could trigger sharp yen fall
• Trump pump again - says war in Iran "should be ending pretty soon"
• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda "no comment" on declining mkt expectations for April rate hike
• Trump pump - says it'll be great for Hezbollah if they act nice and well
• G7 warns on war’s…

Singapore NODX rose 15.3% y/y in March, beating forecasts, as AI-driven electronics exports surged, though non-electronics remained weak and MAS warned of downside risks from global conditions.

Summary:

• Singapore NODX +15.3% y/y in March vs +9.4% expected (Reuters poll)
• Electronics exports surge +74% y/y, driven by AI demand
• Non-electronics still weak (-0.6% y/y), highlighting uneven recovery
• Export growth broadening across Asia, softer to US and EU
• MAS flags downside risks from energy shock and tighter global conditions

Singapore’s export sector delivered a strong upside surprise in March, driven by a surge in electronics shipments linked to artificial intelligence demand, although underlying momentum remains uneven across sectors and…

NZ PM Luxon said he has full caucus support despite reports of a leadership push, as weak polling adds to political uncertainty ahead of the election, posing modest downside risks for NZD sentiment.

Summary:

• NZ PM Luxon rejects leadership challenge reports, says he has caucus support
• Media reports suggest internal pressure within National Party
• Polling shows declining support for Luxon and coalition risks ahead of election
• Political uncertainty adds to already fragile NZ economic backdrop
• Limited immediate market impact, but risks skewed to NZD sentiment and fiscal outlook

New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has pushed back against reports of a potential leadership challenge, insisting he retains full support from his National…

more to come

Trump is speaking at an event in LasVegas. Feedng the chooks.

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Earlier:

• Iran stresses need for full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon
• Unverified reports Tehran plans to begin “initial steps” toward Bab al-Mandab block

G7 finance chiefs warned the Middle East war risks damaging growth and fuelling inflation, signalling readiness to act on energy shocks while accelerating efforts to diversify critical minerals supply chains.

Summary:

• G7 flags urgent need to limit economic fallout from Middle East war
• Central banks ready to act to prevent energy shock feeding into core inflation
• IEA oil releases highlight coordinated response to supply disruption
• Rare earths and critical minerals diversification away from China in focus
• Free transit through Hormuz seen as key to stabilising energy markets

G7 finance ministers and central bank governors have warned of mounting risks to the global economy from the Middle East conflict, pledging coordinated action to…

The latest from Trump:

Trump is happy with stock markets bouncing back.

NZ food prices fell 0.6% m/m (prev -0.1%) while retail card spending rose 0.7% (prev 1.4%), showing easing inflation and slowing demand, reinforcing expectations the RBNZ will hold rates steady.

Summary:

• NZ food prices -0.6% m/m (prev -0.1%), annual pace 3.4% – Stats NZ
• Core retail card spending +0.7% m/m (prev +1.4%), signalling slower momentum
• Total card spending +1.3% m/m (prev +1.1%, revised to +1.3%)
• Data points to easing inflation but still-resilient, moderating demand
• RBNZ likely to remain on hold as disinflation continues gradually

New Zealand data showed a combination of easing food price pressures and moderating, but still resilient, consumer spending in March, reinforcing expectations the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will…

The U.S. is warning European allies of likely weapons delivery delays as the Iran war strains already stretched defence stockpiles, with competing demands from Ukraine, Israel, and Gulf missile defence adding pressure.

Summary:

• U.S. likely to delay some weapons deliveries to European allies due to Iran war demand – Reuters
• Affected countries include Baltic states and Scandinavia
• Delays tied to strain on U.S. weapons stockpiles and production capacity
• Ongoing conflicts (Ukraine, Gaza, Iran) compounding supply pressures
• Patriot missile usage highlights competing global defence demands

The United States has informed several European allies that deliveries of previously contracted weapons may be delayed as the ongoing Iran war places…

The data from New Zealand is all that is on the calendar.

These are unlikely to move the kiwi too much upon release.

This the latest, Iranian media citing Foreign Ministry spokesperson:

• Iran stresses need for full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon
• Iran welcomes ceasefire in Lebanon, saying it was part of Iran-U.S. ceasefire understanding mediated by Pakistan

That first demand sounds like to might be sticking point.

• Trump announces Isreal and Lebanon ceasefire
• Trump says Iran meeting could be on weekend; Netanyahu confirms Lebanon ceasefire
• US initial jobless claims 207K vs 215K expected
• US April Philly Fed business index +26.7 vs +10.0 expected
• Gulf and European officials expect the US to take six months for an Iran deal
• Fed's Miran: I would pencil in 3 rate cuts this year versus 4 before the war
• Fed's Williams: At this moment, not appropriate to provide specific forward guidance
• US March industrial production -0.5% vs +0.1% expected
• Netflix Q1 earnings: The print is clean, the guide is the problem
• Fed's Williams: Seeing emerging signs of supply chain disruptions
• Anthropic releases Opus 4.7 drops but the real 'Mythos' is still behind the glass
• ECB's Kazaks:…