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IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 27 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Financial markets were shaped more by headline risk, especially tentative progress in U.S.–Iran talks, than by hard macro data, with WTI crude slipping from just below 100 toward the low‑90s and triggering a modest risk‑on rebound in U.S. equities and Treasuries. The dollar held relatively firm despite the oil pullback, while key instruments most affected included oil futures, large‑cap equity indices, and tech‑heavy NASDAQ futures, and U.S. 2‑ and 10‑year yields, which eased but remained elevated on the backdrop of still‑tight geopolitical risk and inflation concerns.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should watch for…

• Prior +1.8%; revised to +2.0%
• Retail sales +2.5% vs +2.1% y/y expected
• Prior +4.5%; revised to +4.8%
• Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -0.4% vs -0.8% m/m expected
• Prior +2.0%; revised to +2.2%
• Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +3.4% vs +2.9% y/y expected
• Prior +5.5%; revised to +5.9%

The drop here isn't as bad as estimated, and that comes despite a positive revision to the January figures. Despite the monthly drop, UK retail sales remain decent in the past few months, with the less volatile three-month reading showing retail sales up 0.7% in the three months to February.

But when compared to the pre-pandemic level in February 2020, retail sales volumes are down 0.3% as of last month.

Looking at the details, the drop in February largely stems from a marked…

And so the deadline gets pushed to 6 April now. It all started with 48 hours from the past Saturday and then another supposed 5 days from Monday. This is starting to drag on for quite a bit more than "just a couple of weeks". US president Trump is trying to calm the nerves as he delays escalating military actions and boasts "very substantial" talks with Iran.

Once again, the latest development just serves to reaffirm that we are moving on to a new phase in the war. Iran has leverage via control of the Strait of Hormuz. And that is enough to push Trump's pain points on multiple fronts in markets. So, that's resulting in the US needing to dial back or risk upsetting markets even more before any of it gets better.

The funny thing is we've seen…

• Cyclone Narelle disrupts 8% of global LNG supply from Australia
• India cuts fuel duties, increases export tax as oil volatility rises
• China industrial profits jump 15.2% as war risks threaten outlook
• RBI to hold rates at 5.25% through 2027 as oil risks cloud outlook
• New Zealand unveils fuel contingency plan amid rising Hormuz risks
• CNN: US Iran options risk heavy casualties with no clear path to victory
• China January - February Industrial profits rocket higher, +15.2% ytd y/y (prior +0.6%)
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9141 (vs. estimate at 6.9083)
• Verbal intervention in the yen - Japan fin min says seeing speculative FX moves
• Pentagon weighs 10,000 troop deployment as Trump pauses Iran strikes
• Fed’s Barr warns energy shock may…

China industrial profits surge but rising costs and war risks cloud outlook

Summary:

• China industrial profits jump 15.2% y/y in Jan–Feb vs 0.6% in 2025
• Tech and electronics sectors lead gains, boosted by AI demand
• Margins remain under pressure from rising costs and competition
• Weak domestic demand reflected in ongoing producer deflation
• Middle East conflict raises risks via energy and trade channels
• Higher input costs could slow earnings recovery ahead

China’s industrial sector has started the year on a stronger footing, with profits rising sharply in the first two months, signalling that policy support and improving demand are feeding through into corporate earnings. However, this recovery is unfolding against an increasingly uncertain…

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Profits at China's industrial firms grew 15.2% in the first two months over the same period last year.

• accelerated from a 0.6% increase for the whole of last year

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand consumer confidence March 2026 91.3

• prior 100.1

Trump delays Iran energy strikes by 10 days, shifting markets to a deadline-driven risk event.

Summary:

• Trump pauses planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for 10 days
• New deadline set for April 6, 8pm ET — now a key market catalyst
• Ongoing talks described as “going very well”
• Signals temporary de-escalation, not resolution
• Oil risk premium may ease but likely remains partially intact
• Markets shift from escalation fear → deadline-driven uncertainty
• Downside in oil limited; upside risk remains if talks fail
• Safe havens likely stabilise rather than unwind sharply

U.S. President Donald Trump announced a temporary pause in planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, delaying any action by 10 days until April 6 at 8 p.m.…

• Trump has given Iran another 10 days: "Pausing ... to Monday April 6"
• Trump: Very substantial talks are going on with Iran
• Senior Iran official: No plan for talks appears realistic at this stage
• WSJ. Iran wants US to scale back demands before agreeing to any cease-fire talks
• Mexico central bank lowers benchmark interest rate to 6.75% from 7.00%
• BOC Rogers: Will have a tough job dealing with structural changes to the economy
• Israeli officials have become convinced Trump could soon try to end the war - report
• US sells 7-year notes at 4.255% vs 4.252% WI
• Trump in cabinet meeting: They are begging to make a deal
• Iran officially responded to Trump's peace plan: No deal
• JD Vance working to eliminate Netanyahu from Trump's decision-making circle - report
• <a…

There was a call earlier in the week between Trump and Netanyahu and afterwards, Bibi seeming toned down his rhetoric. The latest from the WSJ picks up on that and says that "Israeli officials have become convinced President Trump could soon try to end the war" citing people familiar.

In light of that, Israel has shifted its focus to crippling Iran's military-industrial base. It also says that Israel has already worked through its priority targets and is going back to hit some of them again to deepen the damage.

Also notable is that Israel took credit for killing the head of Iran's navy today, so they're clearly not just focused on the industrial side.

I get the sense that not even Netanyahu knows what Trump will do next, the same as…

The WSJ is reporting:

• Iran wants the U.S. to scale back demands before agreeing to any cease-fire talks
• U.S. proposal seen as excessive, including dismantling nuclear program, limiting missiles, and ending regional support
• Iran open to talks, but only under more reasonable terms
• Refuses to negotiate missile program upfront
• Rejects permanent end to uranium enrichment
• Seeks security guarantees (ideally via a third party) against future U.S./Israel attacks
• Willing to consider limited nuclear concessions, such as reducing enriched uranium stockpiles
• U.S. remains concerned Iran could use enriched uranium to develop nuclear weapons

The good and the bad....Iran is signaling openness to talks, but only if the U.S. walks back what it sees as…