Market News

New yuan loans for the month of March came in at ¥2.99 trillion, missing on estimates of ¥3.4 trillion. That brings the total new bank lending in Q1 2026 to roughly ¥8.6 trillion. The total there marks a drop from Q1 2025 of around ¥9.8 trillion.

Typically, the first quarter of the year is when we normally see the big credit and liquidity boost in the Chinese economy. That as the government wants to make sure financial market transmission and credit conditions are sufficient, especially with the Lunar New Year in focus.

So, for the figure here to come in below what it was in Q1 last year is disappointing to say the least. It could point to a number of things though.

The first being a shift in Beijing's policy focus in wanting to curb…

• No security for Persian Gulf ports if own is threatened
• Enemy-affiliated vessels won’t pass through Hormuz
• US restrictions on vessel movements are illegal and piracy

Iran has issued a warning following Trump's announcement of a naval blockade on Iranian ports, declaring that any threat to its maritime interests will result in a collapse of regional shipping safety. An Iranian Armed Forces spokesperson characterized the US strategy as a "permanent mechanism" for destabilization, asserting that if the security of Iran’s own Persian Gulf ports is compromised, no other port in the region will remain secure.

The Islamic Republic further clarified its operational stance by stating that enemy-affiliated vessels will no longer be permitted to transit…

From his Truth Social post:

"The United States to Blockade Ships Entering or Exiting Iranian Ports on April 13 at 10:00 A.M. ET. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DJT"

That means the blockade will officially begin at 1400 GMT later today.

As a reminder, the blockade that Trump is referring to is essentially a move where they will intercept all ships trying to head towards an Iranian port or ships that are looking to carry Iranian goods out. On the latter, the most punishing would arguably be oil and gas related.

This means that the Strait of Hormuz is essentially being contested from two different areas now. Iran still holds control through a mix of physical presence and intimidation, closer to its shores.

Previously, Iran…

• BOK nominee flags intervention action on won weakness as inflation risks rise
• China still has room to ease as inflation remains below target, BofA says
• Some retracement gap filling happening in Asia trade. But not for oil.
• Recap - Orbán ousted as Hungary shifts toward EU alignment in election shock
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8657 (vs. estimate at 6.8395)
• Fuel caps emerge in India as war-driven supply concerns ripple downstream.
• Japan 10-year yield hits 29-year high as oil surge lifts inflation fears
• ANZ turns hawkish on RBNZ as inflation risks build. RBNZ hike in July, September, October
• Floating oil storage plunges, but renewed escalation in uncertainty dates the data
• New Zealand services sector contracts further as…

Recapping this ICYMI earlier. Hungary’s election removes a key EU disruptor, signalling a shift toward greater integration, policy alignment, and potential economic support flows from Brussels.

Summary:

• Hungary delivers political shock with Orbán ousted after 16 years
• Centre-right Tisza party wins decisive majority amid record turnout
• Outcome signals shift back toward EU alignment and policy cooperation
• Opens door to EU funding release and reduced internal bloc friction
• Markets see marginally positive implications for the euro

Hungary’s election has delivered a major political reset, with long-time Prime Minister Viktor Orbán losing power after 16 years to the centre-right Tisza party led by Péter Magyar. The result, confirmed after…

Summary:

• Japan 10-year JGB yield hits 29-year high (2.49%) as oil shock builds
• US–Iran talks collapse and Hormuz blockade fears lift inflation expectations
• Energy-driven inflation risks push yields higher across the curve
• Highlights Japan’s sensitivity to imported energy shocks
• Reinforces BoJ policy dilemma amid rising global inflation pressures

Japan’s government bond market came under renewed pressure, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising to its highest level in nearly three decades as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified. The move followed the collapse of US–Iran negotiations and the announcement of a US naval blockade targeting Iranian-linked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, developments that triggered a…

New Zealand’s services sector is contracting more deeply, with broad-based weakness and falling confidence driven by geopolitical uncertainty. The data point to slowing growth and rising downside risks to the economic outlook.

New Zealand Services PMI for March 2026 46.0

• prior 48

Composite 48.8

• prior 50.5

Summary:

• New Zealand services sector contracts further in March (PSI 46.0)
• Weakest activity driven by discretionary spending segments
• All sub-indexes in contraction; sales/activity notably soft
• Conflict-driven uncertainty weighing on confidence and demand
• Combined PMI/PSI signals rising risk of economic contraction

New Zealand’s services sector weakened further in March, with the BNZ–BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) falling to…

Late yesterday it appeared that US-Iran negotiations were headed for catastrophe after Vice President JD Vance left Pakistan without a deal but not all hope is yet lost if you read between the lines from the latest statements.

The most-recent one is from Trump, who said the US will clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz and blockade Iran from shipping through it, much like Iran has done to the rest of the world.

He wrote:

So, there you have it, the meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not. Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz. At some point,…

The talks in Islamabad have beguin, according to reports from all sides.

Notably, Iran has said it can't open Hormuz because of mines in the water. The US seems to be calling that bluff as 'several' US navy ships passed through. Trump said "We're now starting the process of clearing out Hormuz".

I wonder if Iran will see that as an escalation as it evidently wasn't coordinated with them.

One thing that worries me a bit is that Trump is highlighting that many tankers are headed to the US to pick up oil cargoes. He seems to be excited about that but the flipside of it is that it will drive US oil and gasoline prices higher and it won't take long.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Both the S&P and NASDAQ indices close above 100 day moving averages
• Isreal wil announce its commitment to a ceasefire at 4 AM Beirut time
• Crude oil futures settles at $96.57. Down sharply on the week
• US March Budget deficit for March -$164.00 billion versus -$156.75 billion estimate
• Israeli Broadcasting Authority Netanyahu approves every attack launched in Beirut
• Baker Hughes rig count -3 at 545
• Fed Nominee Warsh nomination hearing will be delayed
• Major European indices close mixed. Higher for the week.
• Trump to the NY Post: Preparing military if Iran fails to comply in talks
• CNN. Trump had a "tense" call with Netanyahu on Lebanon
• UMich preliminary April consumer sentiment 47.6 versus 52.0 expected
• US February factory orders 0.0% vs -0.2% expected
• <a…

Iranian officials land at Nur Khan Airbase in Islamabad under Pakistan’s Air Force escort ahead of peace talks, two Pakistani sources involved in talks

• Iranian delegation led by Iran’s Parliament Speaker Qalibaf arrived in Islamabad ahead of peace talks with U.S.
• Iran says talks with U.S. to begin if “preconditions are accepted” – Iranian media
• Iranian media says Iran’s delegation includes foreign minister, defence council secretary, central bank governor and several parliament members

The U.S. delegation, led by Vice President JD Vance, and including Jared Kushner and Steve Witkopf are expected to arrive shortly.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Fars is reporting that

• Israel will announce it's commitment to a ceasefire at 4 AM Beirut time (it is 10:15 PM now in Beirut).

The announcement gives a path to peace talks between the US and Iran this weekend...

WHat to expect?

The U.S. position, led by JD Vance, is centered on security and stability. The primary goal is to eliminate any pathway for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, which means strict limits—or potentially a halt—to uranium enrichment, backed by strong verification and inspection measures. The U.S. is also pushing for the reopening and protection of the Strait of Hormuz to ensure steady global oil flows, along with broader de-escalation across the region, including curbs on Iran-backed proxy activity. At its core, the U.S.…