Market News

RatingDog / S&P Global China manufacturing PMI for March 2026. Yesterday we had the official PMIs.

Summary:

• China manufacturing PMI at 50.8 (prev. 52.1), still in expansion for 4th straight month
• Growth slows but remains second-strongest in six months
• Output, new orders and employment all continue to rise
• Input price inflation jumps to highest since March 2022
• Output prices hit four-year high, signalling pass-through
• Supply chains deteriorate: delivery times longest since Dec 2022
• Middle East conflict cited as key driver of cost pressures

China’s manufacturing sector continued to expand in March, though momentum cooled as rising cost pressures and supply chain disruptions began to weigh on activity.

The headline PMI came in at 50.8,…

Japan’s manufacturing sector remains in expansion but is losing momentum as cost pressures rise and confidence weakens, with the Middle East conflict feeding through into inflation and uncertainty.

Summary:

• Japan manufacturing PMI eased to 51.6 (prev. 53.0), still in expansion
• Growth slowed but remains second-strongest since mid-2022
• New orders, output and employment all expanded at softer pace
• Input cost inflation surged to fastest in ~19 months, driven by energy
• Business confidence weakened amid Middle East war uncertainty

Japan’s manufacturing sector continued to expand in March, though momentum slowed notably as rising costs and global uncertainty began to weigh on activity.

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI eased to 51.6 from 53.0 in…

more to come

Australia’s Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the tax office will offer temporary relief to businesses impacted by the Iran war, including payment deferrals and support measures.

Small businesses will gain easier access to credit, with options such as loan restructuring and emergency increases to credit limits to help manage cash flow pressures.

Australia’s manufacturing sector returned to contraction in March as demand weakened and cost pressures surged. Middle East-related supply disruptions and rising input costs weighed on activity, while confidence deteriorated sharply.

Summary:

• Australian manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction at 49.8 (prev. 51.0) in March
• New orders declined for the first time in five months, signalling weakening demand
• Input cost inflation surged to a 3.5-year high, driven by energy and freight costs
• Supply chains deteriorated amid shipping delays linked to the Middle East conflict
• Business confidence dropped sharply to the lowest level in 20 months

Australia’s manufacturing sector slipped back into contraction in March, as weakening demand and…

New Zealand February building permits +2.7% m/m (prior +1.9%)

• +22.9% y/y

UK increases minimum wage to 10.85 GBP. A 1500GBP boost for more than 200K young workers

• Trump invites countries to get the Hormuz oil themselves; he won't help anymore
• Iran's Pres.: Iran seeks no war but is prepared to end it with guarantees against attacks
• Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi: We will not accept a ceasefire, want a complete end to war
• China and Pakistan presented a new Iran initiative to end the war - report
• JOLTs Job openings for February 6.882 million versus 6.918 million estimate
• US March consumer confidence 91.8 vs 88.0 expected
• US January CaseShiller 20-city house price index +1.2% vs +1.3% y/y expected
• Fed's Schmid: Inflation is the more salient risk for the economy
• Trump: The Strait of Hormuz will automatically reopen after US exit
• Iran's Revolutionary Guard names 18 American tech companies for retaliation
• Goldman…

The Bank of Japan is watching Tankan developments closely. We'll get the latest report today.

Later is the private survey China manufacturing PMI for March from RatingDog. Yesterday the official PMIs all improved:

• China factory activity hits 1-year high as PMIs return to expansion

Axios reports that Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar met today in Beijing with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. At the end of the meeting they published a joint peace initiative that includes a five-point plan halting the use of force and opening the Strait of Hormuz.

There are strong hints the US isn't opposed but no official word.

Trump declined to comment on specifics but told Axios "negotiations with Iran are going well," which is about as close to a tacit endorsement as you'll get from this White House. Reading between the lines: Pakistan has been the key US-Iran mediator throughout this conflict, and they wouldn't be launching a joint initiative with Beijing if Washington had a problem with it.

The five points are what you'd…

• We will not accept a ceasefire but rather seek a complete end to the war, not in Iran alone but in the entire region
• We have not responded to the US proposals, nor submitted any counter-proposals or conditions."
• Have received text messages from Witkoff, that doesn't mean we're negotiating
• The Strait of Hormuz is completely open and closed only to those who fight us
• There will be difficulties in rebuilding trust with neighbors but we're confident we will
• Says Tehran ready for ground confrontation

This doesn't sound like anything new as it's in-line with what's been said for weeks.

On the US side though, there are more murmurs that they're confident in ending the war.

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said the country is ready to end the war, but only if there are guarantees against future attacks. This isn't particularly new as it's been Iran's position for awhile. There was a WSJ report about security guarantees late last week and there has been talk that China has been contacted to provide the guarantees (no word on whether they're willing) or possibly Pakistan.

Since early March, he laid out 'three pillars' for peace, which were the recognition of "legitimate rights" like peaceful nuclear rights, reparations, and firm international guarantees.

The difference now is that we've heard it directly from the President, which may be a communication strategy change that is laying the groundwork, or the…