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• Prior +0.6%
• GDP +2.7% vs +2.6% y/y prelim
• Prior +2.8%

This reaffirms the more robust showing in Spain's economy to wrap up last year. The details show that domestic demand contributed 0.9% to quarterly GDP growth with external demand contributing -0.1%. Overall, the Spanish economy grew by 2.8% in 2025. And while that is not as strong as in 2024 (3.5%), it's still a solid number and reaffirms that the economy is holding up well despite plenty of other concerns elsewhere around the region.

All that being said, this is very much lagging data now. That as the US-Iran conflict has materially reshaped the whole entire global economic landscape for this year and at least in the foreseeable future.

Spain's economy was already dealing with a bit of a…

• Prior 91

At the same time, we also have the business confidence numbers for March as per below:

• Business confidence 97 vs 96 expected
• Prior 97
• Services confidence 96
• Prior 96
• Manufacturing confidence 99
• Prior 102

French household confidence eased back in March as the proportion of households who consider that prices will accelerate over the next twelve months has increased very strongly. That of course due to higher energy prices in relation to the US-Iran conflict.

The household perception of future prices jumped sharply from -29 in February to -1 in March. That is the highest reading since September 2022. So, that sort of puts things into perspective of how fearful consumers are feeling about inflationary pressures.

Meanwhile, business confidence…

• Prior -24.7; revised to -24.8

Not much of a surprise there as German consumer sentiment deteriorated heading into April, largely due to concerns on higher energy prices. That as the Middle East conflict continues to drag on for longer, set to stretch into its fourth week soon. Households look to be bracing for higher prices at the pump and spillovers to other areas, with added concerns about the economic recovery in general.

The economic expectations index dipped back into negative territory, down to -6.9 from 4.3 in March. That is the lowest reading since December 2022. Adding to that, consumer income expectations also plunged to -6.3 from 6.3 in the month before. That as fears creep in on impacting household buying power.

GfK notes that:

The market mood is not as bad as it was when we returned from the weekend. However, it is not as hyped up as what it was made out to be when US president Trump claimed "very productive" talks with Iran on Monday. Amid the mixed messages from both sides, we're pretty much caught somewhere in between.

While Washington is talking up negotiations and its 15-point proposal, top officials in Tehran are adamant that they are not in direct or indirect contact with the US. However, Pakistani and Egyptian sources are claiming to try and mediate the situation with the former saying that Iran has received the peace proposal by the US and have not made a firm decision on that just yet.

Looking past all the noise, the fact of the matter remains that Iran…

• UAE warns Hormuz disruption is “economic terrorism” as tensions rise and rise
• WSJ: China sees opportunity as Trump’s Taiwan stance raises uncertainty
• China EV exports jump 120% in February as global demand accelerates
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.9056 (vs. estimate at 6.9108)
• WSJ report that Trump targets swift end to Iran war while ramping up military pressure
• China's COSCO resumes Gulf shipping, signalling uneven reopening of Hormuz routes
• Oil rises as US escalation risk builds despite Trump ceasefire rhetoric
• Trump speaking, says Iran is negotiating and want a deal
• Big gold news ICYMI - Russia's Putin signs order to limit gold exports
• Trump-Xi meeting now set for May after delay tied to Iran conflict
• RBA warns Middle East conflict may…

WSJ (gated) flags Taiwan risk as China tests Trump’s transactional policy stance.

Summary:

• WSJ flags rising uncertainty in US Taiwan policy
• China sees opportunity in Trump’s approach
• Taiwan potentially part of broader negotiations
• Focus on subtle shifts in policy language
• Arms sales pause signals softer stance risk
• China increasing military and diplomatic pressure
• US distracted by Middle East conflict
• Policy ambiguity seen as destabilising risk

A detailed Wall Street Journal report highlights growing concern that US policy toward Taiwan may be entering a more uncertain and potentially transactional phase under President Donald Trump, creating what Beijing sees as a strategic opening.

The original piece is extensive and nuanced, but the…

China EV exports surge as global demand accelerates despite trade risks.

Summary:

• China vehicle exports up 61% YoY in Jan-Feb
• February exports rise 79% YoY to 750,000 units
• NEV exports surge 120% YoY in February
• 320,000 EVs exported in February alone
• Jan-Feb NEV exports reach 670,000 (+88% YoY)
• Strong global demand for Chinese EVs
• Competitive pricing and scale key drivers
• Trade tensions risk rising globally

China’s vehicle exports surged at the start of 2026, driven by a sharp acceleration in electric vehicle shipments, reinforcing the country’s growing dominance in global auto markets.

According to data from the China Passenger Car Association, total vehicle exports reached 1.55 million units in January and February combined,…

Putin banned the export of gold bars weighing over 100 grams from the Russian Federation. As of May 1 2026. There are some exceptions. Adam had the details posted earlier, here:

• Putin signs order to limit gold exports

Trump-Xi summit reset for May as war delay reshapes geopolitical calendar

Summary:

• Trump-Xi summit set for May 14–15 in Beijing
• Meeting delayed roughly six weeks due to Iran conflict
• Timing aligns with US estimates of war duration
• Reciprocal visit to Washington planned later this year
• Talks expected to cover trade, tech, geopolitics
• Preparations reportedly in final stages
• Markets watching for US-China policy signals
• Summit seen as key geopolitical event

The United States and China are set to resume high-level engagement next month, with President Donald Trump scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14–15, marking a delayed but closely watched summit between the two leaders.

The meeting, confirmed by the White…

Iran spent the entire day sending various messages through the media that it won't accept a ceasefire deal or negotiate with the US around its 15-point plan. However, we heard from Pakistani sources that they hadn't officially rejected talks so that's the next big headline we're waiting for. Notably, Trump was completely silent on the war today but he's scheduled to speak at a fundraiser at 7:30 pm ET, so we will see if that lasts.

At the close:

• S&P 500 +0.55%
• Nasdaq Comp +0.8%
• Russell 2000 +1.2%
• DJIA +0.7%
• Toronto TSX Comp +1.4%

Here is a look at the past couple days of consolidation. Today, we opened very strongly but gave it back quickly. The midday drop was on something of a false headline about a strike on Iran's nuclear plant (it was…

• US stocks take an optimistic view on the war in Iran
• The US is basically threatening to kill Ghalibaf and Araghchi if no deal made
• The present Iran gave Trump was allowing several fuel tankers through Hormuz
• Do you want to hear the story of gold? I will tell the technical story in this video
• Iran's Araqchi: Iran is not seeking war, wants a permanent end to conflict
• Iran parliamentary speaker reiterates that ground attack will result in escalation
• Leavitt: The US is very close to meeting its objectives in Iran
• The U.S. Treasury auctions off $70 billion of 5 year notes at a high yield of the 3.980%
• The latest news headlines from US, Iran and Isreal
• The Qatar-Iran rumors are getting some attention
• Iran threatens to block the Red Sea via the Bab…