Market News

Iran's foreign minister has been relaying Iran's position in the media, alongside parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf.

US and Israel have temporarily removed 2 senior Iranian officials from their list of officials to eliminate as they explore possible peace talks, These are parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf and FM Abbas Araghchi, who have been removed from the target list for up to 4 of 5 days.

This is a tinny-veiled threat in the media to kill them if they don't accept Trump's peace deal.

We will see if it works but it certainly puts them in a terrible position domestically to negotiate. If they give in on anything, it looks like they did it to preserve themselves.

If the US an Israel assassinates them, it's only likely to push…

• Exchange of messages through mediators does not mean negotiations with the US
• Tehran demands a permanent end to the war and compensation for destruction
• Top authorities are reviewing the offered proposals, Tehran has no intention to hold talks with US

There has been a very consistent message from Iran today and it's finally starting to sink in.

Notably, Trump hasn't said anything today about the war in person or online.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Putin signed the order to halt gold exports.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced the restrictions as part of a broader push to clamp down on the shadow economy, framing them as a plan to "clean up" the economy. Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseev noted that gold has increasingly become a substitute for foreign currency in illicit transactions, facilitating capital flight and money laundering.

The initial announcements came on December 8 and were reported at he time

On the new law, which will take effect on May 1, individuals would be allowed to take no more than 100 grams of gold out of the country, which is worth about $15,000.

In addition to limits on exporting rubles and gold, the package includes eight other measures…

It's not clear which regional country he is talking about here.

"Based on certain intelligence, Iran's enemies, with the backing of a regional country, are preparing an operation to occupy one of Iran's islands. All enemy movements are under the full surveillance of our armed forces. If they take a single step, all vital infrastructure of that regional country will be targeted without restriction in relentless strikes."

The context strongly points to the UAE as they have a dispute with Iran over Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb, which Iran has controlled since 1971.

Other possibilities are Bahrain or Saudi Arabia.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• US military is ahead of schedule in its operation
• Iranian regime is looking for an exit ramp
• Iran wants to talk, Trump is willing to listen
• Iran's missile and drone attacks have declined
• US has been in productive talks in the past three days
• Trump doesn't not bluff, Iran should not miscalculate
• Trump to unleash hell if Iran doesn't admit defeat
• Reiterates a 4-6 week timeline for operations

The possibility here is that Iran's negotiators are offering a much different deal in private than in public.

The line that "Iran wants to talk and Trump is ready to listen" is a tough one to swallow given that it's pretty obvious that the US is the party that's pushing for talks. I don't know if that invalidates anything else she said but there was a brief 10…

• High yield 3.980%
• Wi level at the time of the auction 3.966%
• Tail +1.4 basis points versus 6 month average of 0.3 basis points
• Bid to cover 2.29X versus 6 month average of 2.36X
• Directs (domestic buyers) 22.48% versus 6 month average of 27.5%
• Indirects (international buyers) 61.9% versus 6 month average of 61.7%
• Dealers 15.61% versus 6 month average of 10.8%

AUCTION GRADE; D

Another lackluster and below average auction. The tail was 1.4 basis points versus 0.3 basis points average. The bid to cover was less than the average. Domestic buyers didn't show up again, with international buyers around the average. The Dealers were not saddled with nearly 25% like yesterday, but are accepting 15.61% well above the 10.8%…

Iran US-Israel War news :

• CNN is reporting that the Trump administration officials are working to organize a potential meeting this weekend—likely in Pakistan, though Turkey is also being considered—to explore a diplomatic off-ramp to the ongoing conflict with Iran. Vice President JD Vance is expected to attend, possibly alongside other senior officials, though details remain fluid due to security and logistical concerns. Pakistan has been a key intermediary, recently conveying a 15-point US proposal addressing Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, while Turkey has also played a supporting diplomatic role. Discussions about the trip are ongoing at the White House, with Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Jared Kushner, and envoy Steve…

The U.S. Treasury will auction off 2-year notes at the top of the hour. The auction is the 1st of 3 coupon auctions this week. Tomorrow the treasury will auction off of 5 year notes and on Thursday 7 year notes.

Below are a review of the major components that the market will compare the actual results to the 6 month averages to determine strength or weakness from the buyers today:

• High Yield: 6 month average: 3.516%
• Tail: 6 month average: -0.2 bps
• Bid-to-Cover: 6 month average: 2.62x
• Dealers: 6 month average: 10.7%
• Directs (a measure of domestic demand): 6 month average: 32.1%
• Indirects (a measure of international demand): 6 month average: 57.2%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Iran is threatening to shut the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if there is a ground attack on Iran.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is located between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea in Africa, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.

At its narrowest point, the strait is about 26 to 30 kilometers (16 to 19 miles) wide. It is divided by Perim Island into two channels. The eastern channel, called Bab Iskender, is about 3 kilometers (2 miles) wide and relatively shallow, with a depth of around 30 meters (about 100 feet). The western channel, called Dact-el-Mayun, is much wider—about 23 to 25 kilometers (14 to 16 miles)—and significantly deeper, at roughly 300 meters (about 1,000 feet) or more.

Most large ships use the deeper western…

I don't love reporting on rumors that are doing the rounds because most of it is garbage but at the same time, I like to know what the rumors are. There's also a war going on and the state of journalism is lamentable, so it's a constant stream of staged 'leaks' and 'sources' reports that are spoonfed to create some kind of official narrative.

It's all made trading very difficult and just in the last hour, there was a report about a strike on Iran's nuclear power plant that turned out to be old news, but still briefly jarred the market.

The rumor doing the rounds is that Iran and Qatar made some kind of deal and it's based on the reality that strikes on Qatar stopped on March 20 and Qatari employees were told to go back to the office and…

CNN International's Frederik Pleitgen -- the CNN journalist was recently inside Iran -- is out with a report and I'll quote it verbatim:

There has been outreach between the United States and Iran, initiated by Washington, in recent days but nothing that reached the level of full on negotiations, a senior Iranian source tells me. Messages have been received through various intermediaries to scope out whether an agreement to end the war, which is now in its fourth week, could be reached. The proposals being looked at are aimed not merely at achieving a ceasefire, but a concrete agreement to end the conflict between the US and Iran, the source added without going into further detail. The source refused to comment on US President Trump‘s…

There is non-stop talk of insider trading in markets, including a viral report about how volumes in stock and oil futures surged minutes before Trump's post about talks with Iran.

At around 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the CME recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume and then at 7:05 am, Trump posted the announcement.

Now that story got plenty of attention but one that hit at nearly the same time: The enforcement chief of the SEC quit abruptly after just six months on the job because she wanted to go after insider trading.

Two of the people said Ryan wanted to be more aggressive in pursuing charges for fraud and other misconduct including in cases that touched the president's circle, but faced resistance…