Market News

Headlines:

• Trump successfully capped the upside in oil, raising market hopes for an end to the war
• Oil holds near the lows for the week though the drums of war continue to beat
• US futures push higher so far today, technical breakdown on hold for now
• Gold recovers some ground as hopes for the end of the US-Iran war drive prices higher
• Iran's ambassador to Pakistan reaffirms that there was no talks between US and Iran
• Japan reportedly calls on IEA to coordinate release of additional oil stockpile
• ECB president Lagarde: Monetary policy cannot bring down energy prices
• ECB's Lane: We will be considering at every meeting what the scenario is
• Germany March Ifo business climate index 86.4 vs 86.1 expected
• UK February CPI +3.0% vs +3.0% y/y…

• Prior 88.6; revised to 88.4
• Current conditions 86.7 vs 86.0 expected
• Prior 86.7
• Expectations 86.0 vs 86.0 expected
• Prior 90.5; revised to 90.2

German business sentiment falls in March and that is not all too surprising considering the Middle East developments. The outlook/expectations index also dips back lower, falling to its weakest since February 2025. That as higher energy prices are going to have a material impact on the manufacturing side of things. And we're already seeing early evidence of that from the PMI data this week via input cost inflation.

That's going to be a worrying signal for the German economy, especially now that this may very well dash the recovery in the manufacturing sector over the last few months.

Coming into this…

• There have been no talks between the US and Iran, either directly or indirectly
• Friendly countries like Pakistan are seeking to lay the groundwork for dialogue between Tehran and Washington
• Hopes that these efforts could help in ending the war

The comments here are coming after a report that two Pakistani officials told the AP that Iran has received the 15-point US ceasefire proposal. However, there's no word on how they are viewing the proposal and if they will be in agreement to that.

So far, there continues to be a lot of "he said, she said" kind of thing between the US and Iran.

As mentioned in the past few days, I don't doubt that there is some form of contact between the two countries. And even if not, it is clear that we are moving on…

He covered a bunch of topics in his interview with the BBC. Here's his take on the Middle East conflict:

• If Iran remains a threat and higher oil prices hold, it will have "profound implications" to the global economy
• It is too early to say what the outcome will be on the conflict
• However, it is likely to lean towards one of two extreme outcomes
• The first being the war ending and Iran becomes a country that can be accepted again by the international community
• That will see oil prices fall back to below where it was before the war started
• The other, could lead to "years of above $100, closer to $150 oil"
• And that will probably trigger a stark and steep recession
• If oil prices keep closer to $150 for a few years, many countries would be rapidly…

• Prior +3.0%
• Core CPI +3.2% vs +3.1% y/y expected
• Prior +3.1%

To preface the report, it is one that doesn't matter all too much since it is before the US-Iran conflict took place. Still, it does provide a bit of backdrop of what kind of benchmark UK inflation is sitting at before the spike in energy prices.

Core annual inflation remains sticky above 3% with services inflation continuing to be a pain point. That despite it easing from 4.4% to 4.3% in February.

Looking at the monthly breakdown, the biggest contributor to inflation in February came from clothing and footwear prices. That was seen up 0.6% on the month with ONS noting that "prices normally rise in February as the spring product ranges start to enter the shops following the new year…

• Oil retraces a touch as Iran demands cast doubt on ceasefire and US boosts troop presence
• PBoC adds liquidity with CNY 500bn MLF, extends net injection streak (450bn mature)
• RBNZ’s Conway warns on purchasing power as Iran shock clouds NZ outlook, GDP 4cast slashed
• Iran distrusts Trump ceasefire peace push as US pairs diplomacy with military pressure.
• Iran proposes regional military alliance excluding US and Israel. Again.
• Iran prefers JD Vance for talks, over Witkoff or Kushner, highlighting trust issues
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.8911 (vs. estimate at 6.8819)
• Australia February CPI cools slightly, but energy shock clouds inflation outlook
• SpaceX IPO filing imminent, report says deal could raise over $75bn
• Australian February CPI:…

CPI for February slightly lower than expected both headline and underlying (core). Australian shares have added to gains.

March, of course, has brought fuel price surges. We'll get that news in a month.

I'm seeing the figures being greeted with joy. Dial it back folks, the target band the RBA shoots for is 2-3%.

I'll have more to come on this separately

From the BoJ we get the minutes of the January meeting. We had the 'Summary' from this back at the beginning of February:

• signalled moderate economic momentum and stickier inflation trends, endorsing careful future rate increases if forecasts unfold as expected.

From Australia, February inflation data:

• Australian inflation data due Wednesday, March 25, 2026. Preview.

• Washington initiated outreach with Iran but nothing reached a level of negotiations - CNN
• US-led group waiting for response from Iran for peace talks on Thursday - report
• US Richmond Fed composite index 0 vs -10 expected
• US March S&P Global flash services PMI 51.1 vs 51.5 expected
• SNB Chairman: We are prepared to introduce negative rates but the hurdle is high
• The U.S. Treasury sold $69 billion of 2 year notes at a high yield of 3.936%
• Bank of England's Pill: Stands ready to act against inflationary pressures
• US fourth quarter unit labor costs +4.4% vs +3.5% expected
• ECB's Sleijpen: Energy prices likely to become more-entrenched in economy than 2022
• There's blatant insider trading ongoing and if anyone tries to stop it they get fired

Markets:

• WTI…

Axios has turned into something of a White House propaganda machine in this war but this report is more cautious. It says that the US and a group of regional mediators are waiting for a response from Iran about holding peace talks on Thursday.

The problem for Iran is that last month, it held two rounds of talks with the US and put some reportedly-strong proposals on the table only for the US and Israel to launch a surprise attack. That's hardly the kind of lesson they're going to forget.

Since then, leaders have said they would only engage in talks after a ceasefire. At the same time, the White House says that Iran's remaining leaders are in fact already talking and have agreed to some of the things they've proposed.

What the Axios report…

There are increasing reports of a US military build up of potential ground forces heading towards Iran. Trump's 5-day truce is looking like a ruse to shore up defenses among Gulf allies and and bomb Iran's offensive capabilities before than can be turned against Gulf infrastructure.

So what's the plan?

All the speculation is about marines capturing Kharg Island and the administration itself has hinted at it but the logistics are brutal. Parachuting in strands the soldiers and to sail an amphibious ship even close, it would need to pass the Strait of Hormuz and 1000 km of hostile seas. Resupply would also be a problem. The mission has been 'leaked' by Axios but that outlet is increasingly looking like a White House misdirection…