Market News

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 30 March 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Asia’s session today opened with a risk‑off tilt, driven by an extended pause on US military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, elevated oil prices, and negative handovers from Wall Street and European indices. Japanese, Korean, and Australian equities opened softer, with tech and semis among the weakest, while India‑related indices were also expected to start weak beneath higher India‑VIX.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Today’s European and U.S. trading session is being shaped by cautious risk appetite, elevated U.S. Treasury yields, and fresh worries about private‑credit and geopolitical fallout, while traders…

The other state releases around the same time:

• Brandenburg CPI +% vs +2.0% y/y prior
• Hesse CPI +% vs +2.2% y/y prior
• Saxony CPI +% vs +2.3% y/y prior
• North Rhine Westphalia +% vs +1.8% y/y prior
• Baden Wuerttemberg CPI +% vs +1.8% y/y prior

More to come..

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 30 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The main driver was not a fresh macro headline but the ongoing Middle‑East conflict and its inflationary, energy‑cost overhang, which kept oil elevated and U.S. equities in a cautious, quarter‑end correction while defensive and commodity‑linked assets were relatively better‑supported; with no major U.S. data actually released on the session, the primary market reaction was in positioning for the coming week’s key U.S. labor‑market and consumer‑confidence releases, leaving Treasuries and the dollar in a range‑bound but biased‑higher‑yield stance ahead of the next data‑driven event risk.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Monday’s Asia…

Markets Under Pressure on Conflict Concerns into the Weekend – Nasdaq down 2%

Global financial markets closed the week under pressure, with risk sentiment continuing to deteriorate as developments in the Middle East showed little sign of easing. Ongoing uncertainty around the conflict kept investors cautious, driving a broad-based sell-off across US equities into Friday’s close. The Dow Jones fell 1.73% to 45,166, while the S&P 500 declined 1.67% to 6,368, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq led losses, dropping 2.15% to finish at 20,948. In currency markets, the US dollar remained well supported, with the DXY rising 0.29% to 100.19, closing near annual highs as safe-haven demand continued to underpin the greenback. US Treasury markets were…

This will be quite the anticipated report to watch in the session ahead. Prior to the US-Iran conflict, German inflation was already the key sticking point for the ECB in preventing the central bank from pursuing further rate cuts. Price pressures in Europe's largest economy have been stubborn and showed little signs of waning upon the turn of the year.

So when you factor in the Middle East developments in the past month, everything is turning up bad again. German manufacturing had been on the recovery path upon the turn of the year. And that has helped to alleviate some pressures on the economy for a while now.

But with prices set to hit harder there amid surging input cost inflation, that will be a key challenge for the manufacturing…

• Israel may invite U.S. to relocate Middle East bases after war
• Trump touts destruction in Iran, Ackman looks forward to a whopping victory dividend
• Australia to cut taxes on petrol and diesel use as part of National 'Fuel Security' plan
• Reserve Bank of India FX intervention move after hours on Friday. INR chaos day ahead?
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9223 (expected was 6.9205)
• Japan signals readiness for FX intervention. Yen weakened past 160, has since had a bounce
• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says will closely watch FX moves (USD/JPY drops)
• After Tehran had weekend blackouts (strike hits) Trump ups the ante: wants Iran's oil
• Trump says negotiations with Iran going extremely well, might get a deal soon, or not
• BoJ leans toward…

Bond giants see growth shock ahead as markets fixate on inflation

Summary:

• Major bond managers warn markets are underestimating growth risks from the U.S.–Iran war, according to Bloomberg.
• Oil above $110 has driven a Treasury selloff, with yields surging on inflation fears.
• Investors expect the Fed to stay tight or even hike, pushing bonds toward their worst month since Oct 2024.
• However, firms like PIMCO, JPMorgan Chase and BlackRock see a growth slowdown that could reverse yields lower.
• Key debate: inflation shock now vs recession risk next.

Some of Wall Street’s largest bond investors are increasingly warning that financial markets are focusing too heavily on inflation risks from the U.S.–Iran war, while underestimating the growing…

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online ... prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there.

The USD is a little stronger in very early trade.

I'll be back soon with weekend news.

Pakistan has opened a possible diplomatic lane between Washington and Tehran, but the military build-up around Hormuz means markets will want proof before pricing out the war premium.

Summary:

• Pakistan says it will host U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad in the coming days, with Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar saying both sides have expressed confidence in Pakistan’s role as facilitator. The White House has not publicly confirmed the talks yet.
• The diplomatic push comes as Saudi, Turkish, Egyptian and Pakistani officials met in Islamabad to discuss ways to end the war and, crucially, reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf cast the talk of negotiations as a possible smokescreen for a U.S. ground assault,…

The headline story on the weekend is from the Washington Post and it's titled: 'Pentagon prepares for weeks of ground operations in Iran'

The headline basically tells the whole story and it signals what the market has been buzzing about since the Japan-based USS Tripoli was deployed to the Middle East on March 13. That ship has now arrived and other units have arrived as well or are reportedly en route.

There are no plans for a large-scale ground invasion and it would be obvious if there were as that would require hundreds of thousands of troops. This deployment might involve thousands of troops including special forces with support from ground troops. There are no indications on what the targets may be, though there is plenty of…