Market News

For investors and traders navigating the current volatility, here is a backdrop of what happened over the recent trading sessions, characterized by escalating geopolitical tension and significant market retreats:

• Geopolitical Escalation: The conflict involving Iran has intensified as Houthis in Yemen announce entry into the conflict to support Tehran. While Trump signals to allies no immediate plans for an Iran invasion, diplomatic confusion persists. This was highlighted when Trump said Iran asked for a pause, a claim Iran quickly denied.

• Energy and Commodity Spikes: Crude prices have reacted sharply to the instability. WTI Crude oil touched $100 per barrel as markets eye the steel industry and brace for promised revenge from Iran. Adding…

• Iran expected to deliver counter-proposal to the US today - report
• Trump signals to allies no immediate plans for Iran invasion
• Houthis in Yemen announce entry into the conflict to support Iran
• Secretary of State Rubio said that the war with Iran will continue for another 2-4 weeks
• UMich final March consumer sentiment 53.3 vs 54.0 expected
• ECB Schnabel: There is no need to rush into action
• Philadelphia Fed Pres. Paulson: Fed has made notable progress bringing inflation down
• More from Paulson: Impact of Iran War comes as inflation has been high
• Fed's Barkin: Even before oil shock, progress on inflation was stalling
• Iran hackers claim the breach of Kash Patel's personal email
• Baker Hughes total rig count falls to 543 from 552 last week

Markets:

• WTI…

This day just keeps getting worse.

At the start of trading Monday it looked like Trump was on track to get some kind of ceasefire by now. Instead, we have talk of bombing steel plants and now this.

The Houthis in Yemen say they will enter the conflict on the side of Iran. The possible chokepoint now is the the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which they could try to blockade. If so, it's not as devastating as the Strait of Hormuz because the traffic can go through the Suez canal. But it makes the trip significantly longer as the Saudi oil redirected to the pipeline in the Red Sea would now have to travel through the Mediterranean and then around Africa.

Saudi Arabia has also indicated it could enter into the war and that could mean a showdown between…

The results of the $44 billion sale of seven-year notes are out and this one was a bit better with only a 0.3 bps tail after tails of 2.0 bps and 1.3 bps in sales of 2s and 5s earlier in the week. It's not a pretty one though in the bond market with 2s up 8.8 jbps today to 3.97%, which could be the highest close since June (despite 75 bps in Fed easing).

The market is starting to price in rate hikes on a prolonged energy shock that bleeds into inflation. The curve now shows a 50% chance of a hike in October.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Baker Hughes:

• Total rig count 543 versus 552 last week
• Oil rigs 409 versus 414 last week
• Nat Gas 127 versus 131 last week.

Despite the higher prices, rigs decline in the current week. Go figure.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

I don't know how much anyone believes any of this.

On the dawn of this war, Trump was saying they were planning for negotiations and Marco Rubio was going to the Middle East. That this news was also leaked suggests that it was deliberately leaked.

There has been a kneejerk lower in oil on this but that's from the highs of the day. Just before the headlines, WTI was up $4.31 to $98.77 so this could just be an effort to cool pump prices for the weekend.

The report says:

The Trump administration is signaling to allies that it has no immediate plans for a ground invasion of Iran, even as it deploys thousands of troops to the Middle East, people familiar with the matter said.The people, who asked not to be identified discussing private…

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks after G7 meeting of foreign ministers:

• We had a really good meeting at G7
• we expect the Iran operation to conclude at the appropriate time, we are talking weeks not months.
• Iran may decide to set up a tolling system on the Strait of Hormuz.
• There are no meetings scheduled as of now on Russia – Ukraine.
• Weapons destined for Ukraine are not being diverted but that could happen.
• Rubio told G7 leaders that the war with Iran will continue for another 4 weeks.
• There is nothing Russia is doing for Iran's that impedes our operations.
• Zelenskyy was told security guarantees, only after there is an end to the war.
• Zelenskyy is comments on Thursday about supposed US demands for Ukrainian concessions were "a lie"
• We…

From Jennifer Jacobs at CBS News:

The Iranian response to the U.S. peace proposal is expected later today, sources familiar with the matter told Marg Brennan and me. President Trump and top White House officials have been told that Iran's counter-proposal would likely arrive Friday via interlocutors.

It will be interesting to see if this gets published.

I wonder if there is a path ahead where Iran gives up its nuclear materials for security guarantees and reopening Hormuz. That's a pretty small ask from Iran and Trump may still be able to describe it as a win.

Trump and his deputies in yesterday's cabinet meeting heavily leaned on the nuclear messaging, saying that the goal of the mission in Iran was to prevent them from getting nuclear…

Iran-linked hackers publicly claimed to have breached the personal inbox of FBI Director Kash Patel. They published photographs of him and his purported resume.

Reuters confirmed via a Justice Dept official that his emails were compromised but the FBI didn't immediately comment.

Another notable Reuters report today is an exclusive that says the US can only confirm about one-third of Iran's missile arsenal has been destroyed with another one-third likely damaged, destroyed or buried.

Trump and his team have touted numbers upwards of 90% but those are disputed here. Moreover, there is talk that Iran has been digging out its underground 'missile cities' at 27 reported locations in the country. The thinking is that while the entrances have been…

• Prelim was 55.5
• Prior was 56.6
• Conditions vs 57.8 prelim
• Expectations vs 54.1 prelim
• 1-year inflation % vs 3.4% prelim (prior was 3.4%)
• 5-year inflation % vs 3.2% prelim (prior was 3.3%)

The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers is one of the most closely watched gauges of US household confidence. Based on telephone interviews with roughly 600 households, the index (benchmarked to Q1 1966 = 100) captures attitudes toward personal finances, business conditions, and buying plans for durable goods. Markets pay particular attention to its preliminary release — typically mid-month — because it sometimes (not as much as in the past) moves bond yields, equity futures and the US dollar.

The preliminary March 2026 reading fell to 55.5, down from…

Yesterday, the US and Israel assassinated the leader of Iran's navy and there are increasing signs that Iran is now taking a harder line on Hormuz.

The WSJ reports that two container vessels belonging to China’s state-owned Cosco Shipping were turned back from crossing the Strait of Hormuz on Friday morning.

The IRGC also appeared to broaden its definition of who could cross to include the ports they're using:

Any vessel traveling “to or from” ports belonging to allies and supporters of the Zionist–American adversaries is prohibited from transit, regardless of destination or route.

The moves indicate that the trickle of traffic through Hormuz may now slow to only those ships that are loading in Iran, though I'm also watching Qatar as they've…

Trump tried to calm down the markets and the situation in Iran by extending his 'deadline' to attack Iran's energy infrastructure by 10 days until April 6.

That led to a quick jump in US stock futures and a drop in oil futures but it's since reversed. WTI crude is now up $2.57 to $97.07 while S&P 500 futures are down 32 points.

While the initial reaction was upbeat that Trump was saying negotiations were going well, the market appears to be concluding that there will be no oil flowing for another 10 days (and around 110 million barrels) and that Trump might not be telling the truth on negotiations.

Today, the Iran Revolutionary Guard also clarified its stance on friendly vs unfriendly passage of the Strait of Hormuz to say:

Any vessel…