Market News

Headlines:

• Oil prices extend into new highs amid weekend risk hedging as Trump's jawboning fails
• The can being kicked down the road is not a good thing for markets
• IRGC warns that Strait of Hormuz remains "closed", prohibits any passage by US allies
• How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?
• ECB's Muller: Not sure we need to wait for fully visible second round effects to act
• ECB policymaker Patsalides says no rush to raise interest rates
• BOJ re-estimates Japan's estimated natural rate of interest after review
• BOJ would hike rates in April "if you think about it normally", says former governor
• Spain March preliminary CPI +3.3% vs +3.7% y/y expected
• UK February retail sales -0.4% vs -0.7% m/m expected

Markets:

• WTI crude oil…

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is out delivering a warning to all ships thinking about passing through the Strait of Hormuz amid the latest "cooling period" with the US. They are maintaining that the strait remains in de facto closure for now, adding that "any transit through the waterway will face harsh measures".

And in taking aim at the US, the IRGC warns that any shipping involving "allies and supporters of the US-Israeli enemies" will be prohibited through any corridor or to any destination.

This comes as Iranian local media also reports that three container ships of "various nationalities" have been turned backed from the strait after warnings from the IRGC.

Come what may, actions speak louder than words.

And the fact of…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 27 March 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Geopolitical repricing around Trump’s 10‑day pause on Iran‑focused energy‑sector strikes, which trimmed the immediate oil‑supply‑shock premium and helped oil prices ease while supporting gold and modest risk‑on flows. Against that backdrop, China’s stronger‑than‑expected industrial profits reinforced a tentative cyclical‑recovery story even as input‑cost pressures and LNG‑demand weakness cloud the outlook.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Mix of renewed trade‑policy risk, elevated bond yields, and lingering growth–inflation uncertainty. In the trans‑Atlantic complex, the European Parliament has conditionally approved the…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.37%, Shanghai Composite up 0.26% Hang Seng up 0.45% ASX down 0.41%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,465.75 (1.24%) Silver at $69.463 (2.17%), Brent Oil at $100.93 (-0.94%), WTI Oil at $93.48 (-1.06%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.425, UK 10-year yield at 4.9710, Germany 10-year yield at 3.0631

• (USD) Unemployment Claims  210K  to 211K  expected

Asia-Pacific markets declined Friday after a volatile overnight session on Wall Street, as uncertainty over a possible Middle East peace deal continued to unsettle investors. Conflicting signals from the Donald Trump administration and Iran kept sentiment cautious across regional…

• Prior +2.3%
• HICP +3.3% vs +3.9% y/y expected
• Prior +2.5%

This is the first indication that higher energy prices are starting to see an impact. The monthly inflation estimate shows a 1.0% increase, which is the highest since February 2023. That is leading to headline annual inflation in Spain rising to 3.3%, which is the highest since June 2024. That despite missing on estimates as seen above.

The good news at least is that core annual inflation is continuing to keep stable at 2.7%. And that is unchanged from the reading seen in February.

That being said, higher energy prices will eventually play a role in lifting broader prices in the economy. That especially if it sticks around for too long. We already got a taste of that from the…

US Stocks Tumble as Fears of a Longer Conflict Increase – Nasdaq down 2.4%
Global financial markets remained highly volatile through the latest sessions, as investors continued to react to fresh developments surrounding the conflict in the Middle East. US equity markets closed firmly lower across the board, reflecting the cautious tone. The Dow Jones fell 1.01% to 45,960, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.74% to 6,477. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the declines, sliding 2.38% to finish at 21,408, as investors reduced exposure to higher-risk assets heading into the weekend. In currency markets, the US dollar strengthened against the majors, with the DXY rising 0.34% to 99.94. Fixed income markets saw more pronounced moves, with US Treasury yields…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 27 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Financial markets were shaped more by headline risk, especially tentative progress in U.S.–Iran talks, than by hard macro data, with WTI crude slipping from just below 100 toward the low‑90s and triggering a modest risk‑on rebound in U.S. equities and Treasuries. The dollar held relatively firm despite the oil pullback, while key instruments most affected included oil futures, large‑cap equity indices, and tech‑heavy NASDAQ futures, and U.S. 2‑ and 10‑year yields, which eased but remained elevated on the backdrop of still‑tight geopolitical risk and inflation concerns.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should watch for…

• Prior +1.8%; revised to +2.0%
• Retail sales +2.5% vs +2.1% y/y expected
• Prior +4.5%; revised to +4.8%
• Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -0.4% vs -0.8% m/m expected
• Prior +2.0%; revised to +2.2%
• Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +3.4% vs +2.9% y/y expected
• Prior +5.5%; revised to +5.9%

The drop here isn't as bad as estimated, and that comes despite a positive revision to the January figures. Despite the monthly drop, UK retail sales remain decent in the past few months, with the less volatile three-month reading showing retail sales up 0.7% in the three months to February.

But when compared to the pre-pandemic level in February 2020, retail sales volumes are down 0.3% as of last month.

Looking at the details, the drop in February largely stems from a marked…

And so the deadline gets pushed to 6 April now. It all started with 48 hours from the past Saturday and then another supposed 5 days from Monday. This is starting to drag on for quite a bit more than "just a couple of weeks". US president Trump is trying to calm the nerves as he delays escalating military actions and boasts "very substantial" talks with Iran.

Once again, the latest development just serves to reaffirm that we are moving on to a new phase in the war. Iran has leverage via control of the Strait of Hormuz. And that is enough to push Trump's pain points on multiple fronts in markets. So, that's resulting in the US needing to dial back or risk upsetting markets even more before any of it gets better.

The funny thing is we've seen…

• Cyclone Narelle disrupts 8% of global LNG supply from Australia
• India cuts fuel duties, increases export tax as oil volatility rises
• China industrial profits jump 15.2% as war risks threaten outlook
• RBI to hold rates at 5.25% through 2027 as oil risks cloud outlook
• New Zealand unveils fuel contingency plan amid rising Hormuz risks
• CNN: US Iran options risk heavy casualties with no clear path to victory
• China January - February Industrial profits rocket higher, +15.2% ytd y/y (prior +0.6%)
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9141 (vs. estimate at 6.9083)
• Verbal intervention in the yen - Japan fin min says seeing speculative FX moves
• Pentagon weighs 10,000 troop deployment as Trump pauses Iran strikes
• Fed’s Barr warns energy shock may…