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The Reuters report cites three senior Israeli officials in saying that US president Trump appears to be quite determined in trying to strike a deal with Iran. That as he is aiming to try and end hostilities in the Middle East after the developments in recent weeks.

However, the sources say that they are of the view that Iran is not likely to agree to US demands in any new round of negotiations. That as the US wants Iran to completely curb its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes.

Well, I would say Israel does have some bias in wanting the conflict to keep carrying on. That allows a pass to get in strikes while hiding behind the cover of Washington, as they are doing currently. And we're also seeing that the Israeli side is not likely…

Markets Rally on Middle East Hope – Dow up 1.4%
Global financial markets experienced one of their most volatile trading sessions of the year overnight, as conflicting updates surrounding developments in the Middle East drove sharp moves across financial products. President Trump advised of progress on a ceasefire, before the Iranians denied any talks had taken place. US equity indices finished the session higher, with the Dow Jones rising 1.38% to close at 46,208, while the S&P 500 gained 1.15% to end at 6,581. The Nasdaq also advanced 1.38%, finishing the day at 21,946. In currency markets, the US dollar ultimately dropped, with the DXY falling 0.38% to 99.13. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields moved lower across the curve, with the 2-year…

Markets Rally on Middle East Hope – Dow up 1.4%
Global financial markets experienced one of their most volatile trading sessions of the year overnight, as conflicting updates surrounding developments in the Middle East drove sharp moves across financial products. President Trump advised of progress on a ceasefire, before the Iranians denied any talks had taken place. US equity indices finished the session higher, with the Dow Jones rising 1.38% to close at 46,208, while the S&P 500 gained 1.15% to end at 6,581. The Nasdaq also advanced 1.38%, finishing the day at 21,946. In currency markets, the US dollar ultimately dropped, with the DXY falling 0.38% to 99.13. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields moved lower across the curve, with the 2-year…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 24 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

During the US session on March 23, 2026, markets reacted to unexpectedly weak January construction spending (-0.3% MoM), reinforcing slowdown concerns from shutdowns and tariffs, while President Trump’s de-escalatory comments on Iran talks triggered a 9% oil price plunge (WTI to $89/bbl), boosting energy stocks in premarket but capping broader equity rebounds amid Fed’s steady rates and geopolitical overhang; crude oil, energy equities (e.g., LNG, APA), S&P 500 futures, and USD were most impacted.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should prioritize early Japanese industrial production figures for yen direction, monitor…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 24 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

During the US session on March 23, 2026, markets reacted to unexpectedly weak January construction spending (-0.3% MoM), reinforcing slowdown concerns from shutdowns and tariffs, while President Trump’s de-escalatory comments on Iran talks triggered a 9% oil price plunge (WTI to $89/bbl), boosting energy stocks in premarket but capping broader equity rebounds amid Fed’s steady rates and geopolitical overhang; crude oil, energy equities (e.g., LNG, APA), S&P 500 futures, and USD were most impacted.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should prioritize early Japanese industrial production figures for yen direction, monitor…

• Prior 50.9
• Services PMI 51.2 vs 52.5 expected
• Prior 53.5
• Composite PMI 51.9 vs 52.0 expected
• Prior 53.2

I would ignore the headline figures as they don't reflect the real picture. The commentary is clearly pointing to stagflationary pressures from the US-Iran war and the longer it persists, the worse the negative impact on the economy will be.

Key Points:

• Business activity growth slows as costs spike higher in March

Comment:

Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence:

“March's flash data show the first impacts of the war in the Middle East on growth, demand, business confidence and, perhaps most notably, prices.

"The service sector has seen an immediate negative impact. Growth in business activity has slowed sharply…

Al Arabiya reports that sources to Yedioth Ahronoth, Israel's largest paid newspaper, said that Iran's foreign minister Araghchi secretely informed Netanyahu of Mojtaba Khamenei's approval for negotiations and that the Supreme Leader has agreed to negotiate with the US and reach an agreement.

This would be in line with what Trump has claimed yesterday but given the mixed messages, everyone is still taking these reports with a pinch of salt.

There's also this ominous news that the additional US worships and thousands of Marines are expected to arrive in the Middle East on Friday, which is the deadline of Trump's ceasefire for negotiations.

So, everyone's asking if we got the real TACO yesterday or it was just the usual jawboning strategy to…

• Prior 49.6
• Manufacturing PMI 50.2 vs 49.5 expected
• Prior 50.1
• Composite PMI 48.3 vs 49.3 expected
• Prior 49.9

It's not a good look for France's economy at the end of Q1 with business activity slumping to a five-month low. The services sector was the main drag, also seeing its weakest showing in five months as it falls further into contraction territory. While manufacturing activity was a two-month high, it belies the underlying performance of the sector with output falling to a four-month low.

Amid higher energy prices, a key focus of the report is on prices. And we're already seeing evidence of the Middle East crisis having an impact with input cost inflation accelerating sharply to its strongest since November 2023. That in particular for the…

The dollar has seen gains ease while US futures have swung back into positive territory now. The latest reported rumour comes from Al Arabiya, in citing their sources to say that incumbent Iran leader Mojtaba Khamenei has agreed to negotiate with the US on an agreement. So, that's putting a little bit more of a positive spin on the mood currently.

S&P 500 futures have turned losses to flat, with gradual gains even before the headline. Meanwhile, the dollar has lost some ground with EUR/USD climbing back to 1.1600 on the day. Meanwhile, gold has also trimmed declines to be flat at $4,403 and silver is now up 0.4% to $69.45 from lows near $66 at the end of Asia trading.

In the oil market, we're still seeing WTI crude be up over 2% to $90.81…

This is scheduled to begin on 26 March, so the Japanese government is mainly offering confirmation on the total figure. As a reminder, Japan had already released about 15 days' worth of reserves from the private sector on 16 March. So, this just adds to that and the total will be roughly 80 million barrels.

And all of this also ties together with the IEA coordination to release a total of 400 million barrels globally.

The Japanese government confirms that the crude oil reserves release here will be from 11 locations nationwide.

As another reminder, Japan has a massive buffer in terms of oil in its reserve capacity heading into this crisis. They had around 254 days' worth of oil and such a buffer looks to be well warranted in this kind of…

The early moves today are a pullback to what we saw in trading yesterday. Oil prices are up and so are Treasury yields, which in turn are weighing on equities and precious metals again. And in the major currencies space, the dollar is once again creeping higher across the board.

Putting aside all the noise about whether or not there were talks between the US and Iran, it is clear that Trump has signaled that we might just be entering a new phase in the conflict. We've seen this playbook by him before. It is the exact same thing that he stuck with when dealing with China on trade/tariffs.

It's all the same kind of words being used. "I didn't call, they called". "Talks were very good and very productive". "They want to make a deal".

Knowing…

A bit of an update, with Kpler's intel source Amena Bakr reporting on the matter. She says that "a number of LPG vessels crossed the strait yesterday and headed towards India". Adding that "the strait is not closed, but the passage of vessels is tightly controlled by Iran and vessels need to seek permission before passing".

I don't believe that's much of a change in the prevailing narrative. The Strait of Hormuz remains in de facto closure and there are no commercial vessels really willing to take up the risk to try and cross it. That unless one is able to get some assurance from Iran, and it seems like only India (and arguably China) to a certain extent has been able to.

Otherwise, any other ships with intended destinations elsewhere will…