Market News

• Australian inflation data due Wednesday, March 25, 2026. Preview.
• WSJ: Gulf states edge toward war with Iran as Saudi signals imminent entry
• Central banks seen sustaining gold demand amid geopolitics and dedollarisation
• Japan core inflation slips below target as subsidies mask underlying price pressures
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8943
• Japan March 2026 flash PMI slows as growth momentum cools and cost pressures rise
• EU and Australia strike trade deal slashing tariffs, boosting exports and ties
• Iran's Fars report gas infrastructure hit as conflict broadens to energy assets
• Japan core CPI moderates in February
• Deutsche Bank sees ECB hiking to 2.5% as energy shock lifts inflation
• RBNZ’s Breman flags near-term inflation rise, warns…

• Australian inflation data due Wednesday, March 25, 2026. Preview.
• WSJ: Gulf states edge toward war with Iran as Saudi signals imminent entry
• Central banks seen sustaining gold demand amid geopolitics and dedollarisation
• Japan core inflation slips below target as subsidies mask underlying price pressures
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8943
• Japan March 2026 flash PMI slows as growth momentum cools and cost pressures rise
• EU and Australia strike trade deal slashing tariffs, boosting exports and ties
• Iran's Fars report gas infrastructure hit as conflict broadens to energy assets
• Japan core CPI moderates in February
• Deutsche Bank sees ECB hiking to 2.5% as energy shock lifts inflation
• RBNZ’s Breman flags near-term inflation rise, warns…

Japan’s flash PMI shows continued expansion but with clear signs of slowing growth and rising cost pressures.

Summary:

• Japan flash composite PMI slows to 52.5 (Feb: 53.9)
• Services activity eases to 52.8 (Feb: 53.8)
• Manufacturing PMI drops to 51.4 (Feb: 53.0)
• Manufacturing output slows to 51.8 (Feb: 54.2)
• New orders growth weakens to slowest in three months
• Input costs rise at fastest pace in 11 months
• Business confidence slips to near one-year low
• Growth remains intact but momentum clearly softening

Japan’s private sector continued to expand in March, but at a slower pace, as both manufacturing and services activity lost momentum amid rising cost pressures and growing geopolitical uncertainty.

According to preliminary S&P Global…

EU and Australia struck a major trade deal removing most tariffs and expanding market access, alongside a new security partnership.

Summary:

• EU and Australia agree landmark free trade deal and broader partnership
• Over 99% of tariffs on EU exports removed, saving ~€1bn annually
• 98% of Australian exports by value to enter EU duty free
• EU exports to Australia projected to rise up to 33% over 10 years
• Australia to remove tariffs on EU wine, fruit, vegetables and chocolate
• Tariffs lowered on EU imports of Australian critical minerals
• 55% of Australian beef duty free, remainder at 7.5% tariff
• Deal accompanied by new EU-Australia security and defence partnership

The European Union and Australia have reached agreement on a comprehensive free…

Japan inflation data for February 2026.

Earlier:

• February Tokyo data showed underlying price pressures moderating

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This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia’s flash PMI shows a return to contraction, with services-led weakness and surging cost pressures highlighting a stagflationary backdrop.

Summary:

• Flash Australia composite PMI falls to 47.0 (Feb: 52.4) → first contraction in 18 months
• Services activity drops sharply to 46.6 (Feb: 52.8) → first decline in over two years
• Manufacturing PMI eases to 50.1 (Feb: 51.0), while output remains subdued at 49.8 (Feb: 49.6)
• Demand weakens, with new orders falling for first time since July 2024
• Input cost inflation jumps to highest in over three years
• Selling prices rise at fastest pace since August 2023
• Business confidence drops to a 20-month low amid Middle East uncertainty

Australia’s private sector slipped back into contraction in…

Japan’s national inflation data for February is due later today, with the release expected to mirror the softer tone seen in the Tokyo CPI figures earlier in the month. The Tokyo data showed underlying price pressures moderating, with core inflation slipping back below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. This has reinforced the near-term case for maintaining current policy settings, even as the central bank continues to signal a tightening bias over the medium term.

The moderation in inflation was largely driven by renewed government subsidies aimed at reducing electricity and heating costs, which have temporarily dampened energy prices. In addition, price pressures in processed food categories have shown signs of easing after a prolonged…

• Doubline's Gundlach: No terribly enthusiastic about credit markets or stocks at this time.
• Ominous: Thousands of US Marines are slated to arrive in the Middle East on Friday
• Oil plunges as Iran tensions ease. Crude oil futures settle at $88.13
• Netanyahu spoke with Trump: Says war achievements can be leveraged into deal
• Markets tentatively embrace Trump's claims that a peace deal is likely
• Trump: Discussions with Iran to determine whether broader agreement can be reached
• Goldman Sachs raises its US recession probability
• Iran parliamentary speaker: No negotiations have been held with the US
• Iran foreign ministry: Conditions to end the war did not change
• Gold moved to the lowest level since November, testing a key MA before bouncing.What next?
• US…

US equity futures were deeply negative in the pre-market but spiked higher after Trump posted that he had postponed attacks on energy infrastructure for five days amid peace negotiations. The enthusiasm was tempered after Iran denied talks and the rest of the day was a non-stop series of conflicting headlines about the likelihood of a peace deal.

In general, the day ended with cautious optimism and stocks solid higher though well off the highs of the day.

• S&P 500 +1.1%
• Nasdaq +1.4%
• Russell 2000 +2.3%
• Toronto TSX Comp +1.8%
• DJIA +1.4%

The candle on the S&P 500 isn't the most-attractive one but we will see what tomorrow brings.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Gold was so wildly overdue for a correction.
• I think it is a very good opportunity to gold, commodities at this level
• Our inflaiton model shows we are heading to 3.5% inflation
• I don't think we will get a hike with the current structure
• The private credit market remain very murky
• I don't think investors should be calling for a rate cut.
• The market is in a reevaluation phase
• I don't think the Fed will hike rates, and I certainly don't think they will cut rates at the next meeting
• Not terribly enthusiastic about credit market or stocks at this.
• Would like to see the VIX move higher before buying stocks.

Jeffrey Gundlach is a prominent American investor and bond manager, widely known as the “Bond King” and the founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital.…

In the lead-up to the war in Iran, there were all kinds of conflicting signals about what was coming. It was confusing and much of it was designed to misdirect. Evidently it worked as Iran's leaders met to discuss negotiations and the US/Israel used that to kill them.

When I look back at the signs, the giveaway that a war was coming was the relentless and obvious build up of US military hardware in the region beforehand, including aircraft carriers. That looked like possible gunboat diplomacy but it wasn't, it was straight-up positioning for war.

So what irks me about the marines heading to the area is that we could be repeating the same mistake. Initial reports suggested they would arrive around Tuesday but that was based on a spotting of…

• Says he spoke with Trump
• Says Trump believes war achievements can be leveraged into a deal with Iran
• Says any deal will preserve 'our vital interests'

I'm sort of at the point in this conflict where I don't trust any of the 'sources' reports coming out of anywhere. But at least with comments directly from Trump and Netanyahu, you can get a sense of how things are changing. Bibi was really hammering the war drums early last week but he's eased up and now he's talking about a deal and not in maximalist terms either.

From Trump's early-morning statement, a couple things also stand out:

I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS…