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The after-hours drop despite a clear beat suggests positioning, not fundamentals, is driving the moment. After the stock more than doubled this year, investors appear to be taking profits in a broad retreat from AI hardware. The 28% rise in average selling price per terabyte is the key signal for storage stocks, pointing to pricing power in hard drives that could support margins across the sector if demand holds. The growing share of orders from neoclouds is a double-edged sword: it widens the customer base but links Western Digital more closely to a group facing funding strain, so credit stress among AI infrastructure providers is now a risk to watch for storage names. Thursday’s chip rout shows how quickly sentiment toward the whole AI…

The main effect is on refined products rather than crude. Slower repairs mean Russian refining capacity stays offline for longer, keeping diesel and gasoil exports constrained just as the Northern Hemisphere heating season begins and middle distillate markets are already tight. That supports diesel crack spreads and refining margins elsewhere. When Russian refinery runs fall, more crude is typically freed up for export, which can partly offset the supply impact on crude markets. Even so, Brent near $113 is being driven far more by the risk of renewed US strikes on Iran than by Russia. For US consumers, the news makes a quick fall in diesel prices, now around $6.30 a gallon, even less likely before the midterm elections.

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Earlier:

• Trump…

Japan CPI, September 2026:

Headline CPI 2.1%

• expected 2.1%, prior 1.9%

Core CPI 2.1%

• expected 2.1%, prior 1.7%

Core - core (ex-Food and Energy) 2.4%

• expected Exp. 2.3%, prior 1.9%
• this the closest to US core inflation

Background to this here:

• Japan CPI preview: core seen at 2.1%, topping BoJ target for first time since December

Spot gold fell to under $4,040 an ounce on Thursday, its lowest since August and roughly a quarter below its January peak. The move came as the Nasdaq dropped more than 2.5%, the kind of joint sell-off HSBC describes. The main pressure on bullion runs through oil: crude (Brent) above $110 a barrel feeds inflation fears, which push up expectations of further Fed tightening and lift Treasury yields and the dollar, raising the cost of holding a metal that pays no interest. Near-term direction is likely to depend on whether equities stabilise and margin pressure eases, and on whether yields pull back from current highs. Steady central bank demand may limit the downside, but it has not been enough to reverse the trend.

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HSBC argues gold…

The survey shows weaker activity alongside firmer inflation, a difficult mix for rate expectations. Falling output argues against further tightening, while faster input and output price growth argues against easing. That uncertainty could add volatility to Australian dollar and short-dated bond pricing as traders weigh the two signals. Energy is a key channel: firms cited higher energy, shipping and commodity costs, so sustained oil prices above $110 a barrel are likely to keep feeding through to Australian business costs and consumer prices. Falling business confidence also points to a risk of softer investment and hiring intentions into year-end, which equity investors in domestically focused sectors are likely to watch.

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Earlier,…

The French-German 10-year spread is the key gauge: MUFG’s scenarios put it at about 170 basis points in its base case and above 200 in a crisis, levels last associated with the euro zone debt crisis. EUR/USD has been tracking the two-year swap spread between the euro and the dollar closely, so any further scaling back of ECB hike expectations is likely to weigh on the currency, while a firm December signal would offer some support. In bonds, heavy redemptions from the ECB’s portfolio in coming months put the pace of quantitative tightening in focus. Any hint of a slowdown could ease pressure on French debt. Energy remains a swing factor: MUFG’s forecasts assume supply risks fade, so persistently high oil and gas prices tied to the Middle…

For SK Hynix shareholders, the decision removes an overhang. Investors had worried that a separate US listing would dilute the parent’s economic interest and add to the holding-company discount across a group that already includes several listed entities. That could offer some support to the shares, which have dropped about 30% since late September to near six-month lows. The move also signals that the window for large AI hardware listings has narrowed after this month’s chip sell-off and the turmoil around neocloud funding. Next week’s third-quarter results will now take focus, along with whatever funding route SK hynix chooses for Solidigm’s expansion.

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SK Hynix has pulled the plug on Solidigm’s US float as falling chip valuations…

• Nasdaq sinks as chip stocks tumble
• Mag 7 under pressure: Apple bucks the selling
• Bitcoin follows the flows and today that flow is "risk-off" and selling.
• The evidence mounts that the US dollar is leveraged to the AI trade
• US treasury excels $26 billion of five-year tips at a high yield of 2.367%
• US 10-year yields fall, near 5% level but it's for the wrong reasons
• Crude oil buyers remain in control from a technical perspective. What would tilt the bias lower?
• Trading Education: Gold falls despite lower yields: A lesson in trading what the market gives you
• Canada September PPI +2.0% m/m vs +1.3% prior
• US initial jobless claims 194K vs 200K estimate. Better than expected.
• Morning Kickstart: Stocks fall as oil rises on Iran risks
• investingLive European…

Panetta’s remarks put the focus on sovereign spreads, especially French and Italian debt against German Bunds, as the market’s main stress gauge in the euro zone. If US yields keep rising, the spillover he describes could push periphery spreads wider, a risk for Italian bonds given his own warning. For the euro, a growth gap that favours the US alongside higher US yields is a headwind, even with the ECB still facing inflation near double its target. Oil remains the swing factor: sustained high energy prices keep inflation pressure on the ECB, while the drag from tighter financial conditions points the other way. That tension is likely to shape how markets read next week’s decision.

- With policymakers in their pre-meeting quiet period,…

The JPMorgan view rests on positioning, so the key test is whether selling dries up even as headlines stay negative. A day of heavy chip losses that is not followed by more forced selling would support the argument. Momentum-driven traders such as commodity trading advisers can flip from sellers to buyers quickly once trends stabilise, which can make rebounds sharp. In credit, CoreWeave’s bonds and default-protection costs are the clearest real-time measure of neocloud funding stress, and any spread into the debt of larger technology issuers would challenge JPMorgan’s view that the problem can be contained. Higher bond yields and oil prices above $110 add a macro headwind, raising financing costs for capital-heavy AI infrastructure at the…

If you lot are finished trashing the hapless Nasdaq I can give you a heads up on what's ahead in Asia. 

Main focus is on the data from Japan. I'll post a preview of the September CPI separately. The Tokyo area data for September was ... fastest in 10 months, strengthening BOJ rate hike case

USD/JPY has held a tight range this month between just under 157 and just under 159, with the 200-day EMA just above 157.50. A firm print would test the lower end of that range, while a soft one would push the pair back toward 159, where intervention risk becomes the main defence for the yen. In JGBs, the 2-year and 5-year sectors are the most exposed to any repricing of December hike odds, with the 5-year yield near 2.3%. For the Nikkei, a stronger yen and firmer rate expectations would usually hurt exporters and help banks, but AI-linked flows are likely to matter more than the CPI unless the surprise is large. Oil remains the wildcard: sustained crude strength tied to the Middle East conflict keeps energy feeding into Japanese…