Market News

The JPMorgan view rests on positioning, so the key test is whether selling dries up even as headlines stay negative. A day of heavy chip losses that is not followed by more forced selling would support the argument. Momentum-driven traders such as commodity trading advisers can flip from sellers to buyers quickly once trends stabilise, which can make rebounds sharp. In credit, CoreWeave’s bonds and default-protection costs are the clearest real-time measure of neocloud funding stress, and any spread into the debt of larger technology issuers would challenge JPMorgan’s view that the problem can be contained. Higher bond yields and oil prices above $110 add a macro headwind, raising financing costs for capital-heavy AI infrastructure at the…

If you lot are finished trashing the hapless Nasdaq I can give you a heads up on what's ahead in Asia. 

Main focus is on the data from Japan. I'll post a preview of the September CPI separately. The Tokyo area data for September was ... fastest in 10 months, strengthening BOJ rate hike case

USD/JPY has held a tight range this month between just under 157 and just under 159, with the 200-day EMA just above 157.50. A firm print would test the lower end of that range, while a soft one would push the pair back toward 159, where intervention risk becomes the main defence for the yen. In JGBs, the 2-year and 5-year sectors are the most exposed to any repricing of December hike odds, with the 5-year yield near 2.3%. For the Nikkei, a stronger yen and firmer rate expectations would usually hurt exporters and help banks, but AI-linked flows are likely to matter more than the CPI unless the surprise is large. Oil remains the wildcard: sustained crude strength tied to the Middle East conflict keeps energy feeding into Japanese…

The major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, but the selling in technology shares was the dominant story. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.60%, while the Nasdaq 100 lost 2.90%. The S&P 500 also declined sharply. The Dow and Russell 2000 managed small gains, but neither offered much cushion.

Market breadth was negative. On the Nasdaq, 1,734 stocks declined versus 1,471 advancing. So although the largest losses were concentrated in technology, the weakness extended beyond a handful of heavily weighted names.

Investors continued to question whether earnings and guidance could justify expectations surrounding AI spending. Higher oil prices amid Middle East tensions added another concern. Falling Treasury yields offered little relief to technology…

The round gives listed markets a fresh read on how private investors are pricing frontier AI after recent volatility in AI-linked shares. A valuation below the roughly $1.4 trillion OpenAI had sought could be read as a sign of greater price discipline. That reading would matter for chipmakers such as Nvidia and for infrastructure names tied to AI capital spending. SoftBank, a major existing OpenAI investor, is among the most direct listed proxies, and its Tokyo-traded shares may respond to any new mark on the stake. The size of Gulf participation also shows how much of the AI buildout depends on sovereign capital, which ties the sector more closely to oil revenues and Middle East geopolitics.

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Earlier:

• Nasdaq sinks as chip stocks tumble

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<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/22/openai-funding-round-uae-investors.html"…

The memo does little to change the near-term oil balance, which is still driven by the Iran conflict. Brent closed around $113 on Thursday, its highest since early May, after reports that the US and Israel have drawn up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the midterms. That geopolitical risk premium outweighs any supply response the Defense Production Act can deliver in the coming weeks. The measure is more relevant for refining margins and US refiners: federal financial support for capacity could, over time, ease tight diesel and gasoline cracks that have pushed pump prices above what crude alone implies. Traders are also likely to watch for further pre-election steps aimed at fuel costs, which could add headline volatility to US…

Meta, Amazon and Nvidia lead the declines as AI spending concerns weigh on sentiment. The technicals help define what comes next.

The selling pressure in US stocks is intensifying, with the technology names doing much of the heavy lifting to the downside. The latest readings show:

• Nasdaq Composite: down 2.85%.

• Nasdaq 100: down 3.12%.

The bigger decline in the Nasdaq 100 highlights the pressure on the largest nonfinancial stocks. When the market’s heavyweight names move lower together, their size gives them considerable influence over the indices.

What is behind the selling?

The earnings news has put the cost of the AI buildout back under the microscope. Investors are questioning how much companies need to spend, how they will fund that…

The Fed funds futures marketr now sees a 22% that the Federal Reserve is done hiking rates for this year.

That's a big swing to where we were after the CPI report, which is the most-revelant number the Fed should be thinking about next week. Instead, the market is focused on how the FOMC will react to the stock market, which is slumping on AI capital raising fears. 

For next week's meeting, the market now sees only a 5% chance of a hike, the lowest this month. For December, it's still at a 78% chance of a hike but no longer a sure thing. January pricing is at 27 basis points, which is barely pricing in a single hike.

Looking further out the curve, the market sees 63.5 bps this year, a far cry from the 80-90 bps priced in earlier this…

The swings in bitcoin continue. The price is currently down nearly $3,000, trading near $81,000 after reaching a low of $80,836. Today’s high reached $84,294, below yesterday’s high at $84,774.

Both highs stalled ahead of the next key upside swing level at $85,578. Buyers had their shot to extend the recovery, but they could not reach that hurdle. Today, sellers have taken back control.

Bitcoin follows the risk-off flows

The move lower has been helped by risk-off sentiment across the equity markets:

• Nasdaq Composite: Down 2.56%.

• Nasdaq 100: Down 2.82%.

Bitcoin is following the equity market’s lead—at least today. When investors are reducing risk, bitcoin can get caught in the same selling flow. That is what the price action is showing in this…

The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 are under technical pressure. Key support levels could offer a lifeline, but buyers need to prove they can hold them.

The broader US stock indices are trading near their lows for the day. If the indices were ships on the water, they would be taking on water.

Broken moving averages have tilted the technical bias toward the sellers. However, support targets loom below that could help steady the ships. The question is whether buyers can lean against those levels and force a recovery—or whether sellers punch another hole in the hull.

S&P 500: A key support zone comes into view

• The S&P 500 has fallen below its 100-hour moving average at 7754 and 200-hour moving average at 7714. Those breaks give sellers…

Today's price action is another reminder that the underpinnings of the US dollar's rally this year is AI capex spending.

It's an intense risk-off day and yet the US dollar is down on most fronts or close to flat. It just fell into negative territory against the euro on the day despite riots and debt concerns in France. It's also sitting at a one-month low against the Canadian dollar and down 120 pips against the yen.

Some of that is a sharp drop in Treasury yields but in the bigger picture, it's all one big trade: AI.

Right now, the market is questioning where all the money will come from to fund the AI build out and finding a tough time making the math work. The costs are so staggaringly high and it's so crowded that would-be lenders are…

The Treasury sold $26 billion of 5-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, with the following results:

• High yield: 2.367%.
• WI level at the time of the auction: 2.360%.
• Tail: 0.7 basis point vs the average of 0.2 basis point.
• Bid to cover: 2.41X vs the average of 2.52X.
• Directs: 32.4% vs the average of 23.0%.
• Indirects: 62.1% vs the average of 67.8%.
• Dealers: 5.5% vs the average of 9.2%.

Auction grade: C−

A somewhat softer auction overall. The Treasury needed to offer a yield 0.7 basis point above the WI level to get the issue sold, a larger tail than average. Bid to cover was also below average, while indirect bidders (foreign buyers) took a smaller share. The offset was strong direct demand (domestic buyers), which helped leave…