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The trade data is broadly supportive for the yen and for the BOJ’s tightening case, with exports still growing strongly and firms passing higher costs through to prices. The narrowing deficit owes much to oil disruption rather than weaker demand: Houthi rerouting delayed crude arrivals, so the import bill is likely to rebound in October as Suez-routed tankers arrive and procurement returns to around year-earlier levels. That makes oil prices and Middle East shipping the key swing factor for Japan’s trade balance and the yen’s import-driven pressure in the months ahead. For the BOJ, solid external demand adds to the case for a December hike, with its 30 October meeting and fresh forecasts the next focus.

Japan’s exporters are still riding…

Katayama’s comments may ease some of the political risk flagged in today’s Reuters poll, where most economists warned that dissent from government-nominated BOJ board members could weigh on the yen. Her description of an economy close to wage-driven inflation is language that supports the case for further tightening, which would tend to support the yen and keep upward pressure on short-dated JGB yields. Her reference to import-driven price rises also keeps oil in focus, with energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict a direct driver of Japan’s inflation. The tension between consumption tax cuts and BOJ tightening remains, and markets may test her “no gap” message against how board members vote at the next hike.

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Katayama’s message was…

The update gives the AI hardware trade a fresh demand signal, and the after-hours moves in Dell and HPE show investors treating it as a read-through for the wider server group rather than a company-specific win. That matters given both stocks fell heavily last week, so the rebound may test whether that selling was overdone. The margin beat could carry more weight than the revenue figure, as it eases a long-running concern that Super Micro has had to trade profitability for volume. With limited detail until 3 November, the open question is customer concentration: how much of the surge comes from the large cloud providers versus newer AI-focused buyers, whose spending may be less durable.

Super Micro did not just sell far more AI servers…

With rates rising and financing costs higher, the tolerance for open-ended AI spending is narrowing, which puts capex guidance at the centre of market reaction this season. Any sign that spending is outpacing revenue could hit hyperscaler shares even on headline beats, while firm commitments to sustained investment would tend to support semiconductor and AI hardware names further up the supply chain. UBS’s warning about company-specific volatility suggests results may produce sharper winners and losers than the broad AI trade has seen. Meta’s report sets the early tone, as an advertising-led business funding heavy AI investment.

Earlier:

• Stock earnings pick of the week: Meta faces a $145 billion question after the tech rout
• What is earnings…

The merger remark is likely to draw the most attention, particularly for Tesla shareholders, though Musk’s own caveats suggest it is an idea rather than a plan, which may limit any sustained move. Requiring approval from half of all Tesla shares sets a high bar, so investors may treat the comment as a long-dated possibility rather than a near-term catalyst. The compute comments are a cleaner read-through: a claim that older Nvidia H100 chips now rent for more than when new points to tight supply across AI infrastructure, which would tend to support sentiment toward Nvidia, server makers and AI cloud providers. Coming on the same session as Super Micro’s surprise upgrade, it adds to a run of strong AI demand signals.

Musk floated a…

The poll firms up December as the likely window for the BOJ’s next move, which should limit yen sensitivity to the 30 October meeting but raises the stakes around the December decision. The bigger currency risk may be the vote itself: with the yen only modestly above its 2026 low, a repeat of September’s dissent from government-nominated board members could be read as political resistance to tightening and trigger fresh selling. Rising energy and import costs tied to the Middle East war keep oil a direct input into Japan’s inflation outlook, so a further jump in crude would likely harden the case for hikes. For JGBs, the shift toward a 2% or higher terminal rate, combined with fiscal concerns, points to continued pressure on yields.

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Flagging a higher-than-expected trimmed mean a week before the official CPI release is an unusually direct steer, and it shifts the risk balance for 28 October toward an upside surprise. Combined with his view that capacity pressures are tighter than the RBA assumed, the remarks are likely to reinforce hike pricing for 3 November, which would tend to support the Australian dollar and lift short-end Australian yields. His comment on supply shocks matters for the oil channel: it suggests the RBA is less inclined to look through energy-driven price rises while expectations are at risk, making crude a more direct input into Australian rate pricing. Softer labour data gives the doves a counterweight, but Hauser’s framing suggests it is not…

The note offers a framework for holding small caps even if Treasury yields stay elevated, which could support rotation flows toward the segment as long as growth data hold up. The flip side is that the thesis is explicitly tied to nominal growth, so small caps may become more sensitive to economic data surprises than to moves in yields, with a softer PMI or GDP print a bigger threat than a rate rise. Goldman’s view that inflation pressure is largely energy-driven also links the outlook to oil: a further spike in crude would test the argument that broader inflation is moderating. The emphasis on dispersion suggests index-level small-cap exposure may lag a more selective approach.

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Earlier:

• Netflix tops Q3 profit forecast but trims two…

Certification removes one of the largest overhangs on Boeing’s stock, given how sharply shares reacted to the last delay, falling nearly 7% in late September when a software glitch put approval on hold. The bigger financial prize is cash flow: Boeing has been carrying dozens of completed but undelivered MAX 7 and MAX 10 jets, and converting that inventory into deliveries should support cash generation over the next year or more. Attention now shifts to Boeing’s third-quarter results on 27 October, where investors will look for a delivery timeline and any update to cash flow guidance. For Airbus, the approval ends a long period in which the A321neo faced no direct rival at the top of the single-aisle market.

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Seven years late and one…

The quarterly beat is likely to matter less to traders than the forward guidance, which came in below consensus on revenue, earnings and margin for the final quarter of the year. A lower free cash flow target tends to weigh on valuation-sensitive growth names, and the shortfall against the roughly $12.6 billion consensus could prompt analysts to revisit full-year models. The read-through for the broader streaming and communication services group may centre on whether spending pressure is building across the sector. Management’s message that internal restructuring is freeing up money for higher-impact areas may help the longer-term case, but it offers little near-term offset to the softer numbers.

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Netflix delivered a clean third-quarter…

The commitments disclosed in the filing amount to multi-year revenue visibility for Anthropic’s infrastructure suppliers, with Google, Amazon Web Services, Microsoft and Broadcom each tied to contracts running into the tens or hundreds of billions of dollars, much of it noncancelable. That may support the case that AI infrastructure demand is contracted rather than speculative, though it also concentrates counterparty risk on a single loss-making buyer. For prospective IPO investors, the debate is likely to centre on whether revenue growth can keep outrunning compute costs, and on customer concentration, with two clients contributing around a fifth of first-half sales. A valuation of up to $2 trillion would leave little room for a…

JPMorgan expects Bitcoin to return 10% a year. Here is why that number is harder to hold than it looks

J.P. Morgan Asset Management has put a long-term return forecast on Bitcoin for the first time. Its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, the 31st edition of the firm’s annual 10 to 15 year outlook, project a compound return of about 10% a year, according to reports on the document. That is higher than the firm’s 7.5% forecast for US large-cap stocks. JPMorgan has not added Bitcoin to its main portfolio models, though, and the reason it gives is the most useful lesson in the report.

What JPMorgan actually said

The firm says that for the first time it has put a range on Bitcoin returns. It has not included Bitcoin in its main covariance…