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Hauser’s remarks lean hawkish, very IMO, and are likely to keep a further rate rise in play for 3 November, which would tend to support the Australian dollar and push short-dated Australian yields higher if markets add to hike pricing. His acknowledgment of slowing labour and housing data offers the doves something to work with, but his emphasis on inflation expectations suggests the bar for holding is rising. The September-quarter CPI on 28 October now looks decisive: an upside surprise would strengthen the case for a fifth hike this year. Energy prices remain a wildcard, with the RBA having previously cited the Middle East conflict and its effect on oil as a complication layered on top of domestic demand pressures.

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Hauser stopped…

The scale of the beat, with revenue about $1.7 billion ahead of consensus and net income more than double the forecast, gives the bull case for SpaceX a strong data point. The AI segment’s outperformance may also feed into the wider AI infrastructure trade, as it suggests heavy compute spending is turning into revenue faster than analysts had modelled. The counterweight is capital intensity: quarterly capex still exceeds total revenue, so investors are likely to keep watching whether returns on that spend hold up. Costs also ran ahead of estimates, which could draw attention to margins if revenue growth slows.

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SpaceX beat on every line that counts, with AI now its largest business, but a capex bill bigger than its revenue keeps the…

The Russell 2000 jumped strongly on Tuesday while the Nasdaq edged lower in a mixed day of trading with stocks bouncing around on various headlines from Iran and Russia. In economic data, US pending home sales fell to the lowest since the financial crisis. Interestingly, home builders were some of the strongest stocks in the S&P 500 as the market looks towards the next cycle.

• S&P 500 +0.3%
• Nasdaq Composite -0.1%
• Russell 2000 +1.75%

Among the winners:

• WDC +3.5%
• AAL +3.3%
• INTU +3.0%
• LEN +3.6%

Among the losers:

• NFLX -6.1%
• MU -1.0%
• META -1.7%
• GOOGL -1.3%

After hours, United Airlines reported earning that missed estimates and are quickly down to $94.56 from $98.00. The company reported adjusted EPS of $2.54 compared to the $2.57 estimate while revenues were…

• Netflix tops Q3 profit forecast but trims two full-year targets as Q4 guide disappoints
• Trump: Ukraine has to want to settle this war, if not it's going to be a very bad thing
• Finland President Stubb offers some optimism for Russia-Ukraine peace
• BOE's Greene keeps banging the hawkish drum, and she’s not alone anymore
• European stocks close mostly lower as Middle East headlines drive market swings
• Iran and US talks continue. Reports that a deal is close are wrong
• Treasury Sec. Bessent says we are on the "other side of the energy shock". The price action needs to confirm that claim.
• US September pending home sales -7.3% vs -0.5% expected
• Bitcoin Technicals: Sellers regain control, but the range floor remains the next test
• Iran agreed to secret…

The data is not expected to be too impactful, but we do hear from Lane later. 

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ECB’s Lane in Shanghai: three officials set the scene for a 29 October decision

ECB chief economist Philip Lane joins a panel on the international monetary system beyond the dollar in Shanghai today at 04:15 GMT (00:15 ET). It is a closed-door luncheon on a structural theme, so a direct policy steer is unlikely, although the ECB says it will publish the text.

The policy backdrop is well established. The ECB raised its deposit rate by a quarter point in June and again in September, taking it to 2.50%. Markets and most economists expect a hold on 29 October and a hike in December.

Lane’s most recent policy remarks came in a 5 October speech, where he described the…

Switzerland approves its first Bitcoin ETF for retail investors: what has actually changed

Switzerland’s financial regulator, FINMA, has approved the country’s first exchange-traded fund that holds Bitcoin directly and is open to ordinary investors. The approval, announced on Tuesday 20 October, changes how Swiss retail investors can own Bitcoin, but it does not yet put any new money into the market. FINMA did not name the fund or its issuer, and no launch date has been given.

What FINMA approved

The product is an investment fund under Swiss law, classified as an “other fund for alternative investments” with special risk. That distinction is the real news. Swiss investors have been able to buy Bitcoin exchange-traded products for some time,…

Draws continue. Screenshot via oilprice.com

The USDCHF traded to its highest level since May 2025 last Wednesday, reaching 0.83944. However, buyers could not keep the momentum going. The next two trading days saw the price tumble to 0.82162, a decline of nearly 178 pips.

Since Friday’s low, the selling has slowed, but the buyers have not exactly taken control either. The pair has been confined to a narrow trading range, with a ceiling near 0.8274 and a floor near 0.8216. That puts the range at about 58 pips.

A narrow range can remain a narrow range for longer than traders expect. Nevertheless, after the sharp move lower, traders will be watching for a break and run. The technical levels help define where that next shove could develop.

Support is holding, but buyers have work to do

On…

US President Donald Trump is out with some comments that suggest America is leaning on Ukraine to make concessions to end the war.

• I'd like to see if we can make a deal on Ukraine war
• We want Zelensky to make a deal
• Ukraine has to want to settle this war
• If he doesn't I think it's going to be a very bad thing
• Says Russia would like to get it done after the latest talks
• it's time for Ukraine to end this war
• We've given a lot to Ukraine, we've gotten absolutely nothing back

There is a sense of frustration in these comments but that may be because he wants a win before the midterms. WTI crude oil is down 42-cents to $98.13 today after falling as low as $95.25 on hopes for an Iran deal.

• Greene: continue to think we should proactively lean against the risk of second-round inflation effects
• The risk of second-round effects is greater than we previously thought
• Wage disinflation looks to have stalled at levels above those consistent with 2% inflation

Megan Greene is sticking to her guns and the message is only getting sharper. Her latest: wage disinflation has stalled at levels inconsistent with 2% inflation, the risk of second-round effects is greater than previously thought, and the BoE should continue to proactively lean against them.

That’s three for three on the hawkish checklist, and nothing we haven’t heard from her before — she’s was one of the three September dissenters voting for a hike to 4%, she warned last week…

There are some incremental positive developments on the road to peace in Ukraine.

Finland's President Stubb said this: On a substantive and technical level, we’ve made a lot of progress under the radar in the past week or so towards a peaceful solution to the war in Ukraine. Similarly (though less explicit) Norway's PM said that after meeting with Ukraine

On a more substantive note, ABC reports that the US is nearing a deal with Russia to free 'multiple' jailed Americans. There are also reports that US envoys Witkoff and Kushner will fly to Saint Petersburg tomorrow. On that note, Stubb said they found some elements of peace that will be taken to that meeting in Russia.

The US administration has been leaning on Zelenski in recent weeks in…

he USDCAD sellers have been steadily pushing the pair lower since last Wednesday, when the price stalled near the October 9 high. That failure to extend higher gave sellers their opening, and they have taken advantage.

The pair has now declined for four consecutive days. From Wednesday’s high at 1.42984 to today’s low at 1.4033, the price has fallen approximately 265 pips. That is a sizable move in a relatively short period, with a series of broken technical levels giving sellers more confidence along the way.

However, today’s test of the 100-day moving average has attracted some buying interest. The question now is whether buyers can turn that initial response into a larger corrective move.

Sellers have been clearing the downside hurdles

The…