The data is not expected to be too impactful, but we do hear from Lane later.
‘
ECB’s Lane in Shanghai: three officials set the scene for a 29 October decision
ECB chief economist Philip Lane joins a panel on the international monetary system beyond the dollar in Shanghai today at 04:15 GMT (00:15 ET). It is a closed-door luncheon on a structural theme, so a direct policy steer is unlikely, although the ECB says it will publish the text.
The policy backdrop is well established. The ECB raised its deposit rate by a quarter point in June and again in September, taking it to 2.50%. Markets and most economists expect a hold on 29 October and a hike in December.
Lane’s most recent policy remarks came in a 5 October speech, where he described the recent surge in energy prices as a second wave of the energy supply shock, posing upside risks to inflation but downside risks to growth. He noted September inflation reached 3.8%, with energy inflation at about 19% compared with around 2% for non-energy prices, a split that supports patience on rates.
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, among the Governing Council’s more hawkish members, has sounded less urgent than his reputation suggests. He said inflation risks remain tilted to the upside and higher energy prices could keep inflation elevated for longer, but that longer-term expectations remain broadly anchored around 2%. Crucially, he pointed to an absence of inflation feeding through to price and wage setting, which leaves room to wait in October.
President Christine Lagarde has pushed in the same direction. She said rates do not move in lockstep with energy prices, while acknowledging energy is a significant variable. Speaking last week, she said there were no second-round effects yet, but that the ECB cannot wait until they are in full view.
The decision is due at 13:15 GMT (09:15 ET) on 29 October. October is a meeting without new staff projections, which next arrive with the December meeting ending on 17 December. That makes December the more natural window for any further hike, with energy prices and wage data the key inputs in between.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.