Market News

• Prior was 1.305m
• Building permits 1.400m vs 1.395m 
• Prior permits 1.275m
• Permits change m/m vs -2.1% prior

This is another disappointment on the housing front and comes after yesterday's survey of home builders showed sentiment at the worst levels since 2012. High mortgage rates are the big problem in the industry, which is in a deep recession. There is a bit of help today in the rates market with US 30-year yields down 6.4 bps to 5.41%.

For background, the US housing starts report offers an early look at momentum in one of the economy’s most interest rate sensitive sectors. Published monthly by the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, it tracks construction of new privately owned homes, alongside building permits…

The Nasdaq sold off sharply last week as the negative sentiment from higher than expected US inflation data was compounded by growing concerns about the economic outlook.

Credit spreads continue to widen, credit default swap spreads for AI-linked hyperscalers and data center operators have surged to record highs, and the Federal Reserve is forced to keep a hawkish bias amid higher inflation.

Moreover, oil prices continue to surge amid stalled US-Iran negotiations and the ongoing Saudi-Houthi conflict. To sum up, the bearish pressures continue to mount as the stock market seems to be hanging by a thread.

This week, the most important event will likely be the release of…

Headlines:

• The Indian Rupee's sharp rebound following RBI intervention may prove temporary amid renewed surge in oil prices
• Solana remains under pressure as macro and geopolitical headwinds overshadow Alpenglow upgrade
• Crude oil surges further amid Houthis attacks on Saudi energy targets and stalled US-Iran negotiations
• Germany October ZEW survey current conditions -35.9 vs -45.0 expected
• Ethereum consolidates around key technical levels amid a challenging macro backdrop. What to watch next?
• Gold rejects a key trendline as higher oil prices and yields weigh; growth concerns remain in focus
• European stock market open: Equities retreat as bond yields and fiscal risks weigh
• What are the main events for today?
• BOJ reportedly may upgrade inflation…

Two traders can receive the same market signal and reach different decisions. One may be considering a new position; the other may already have substantial exposure to the same instrument.

This was the central point I explored at iFX EXPO Asia 2026 in Hong Kong. As artificial intelligence (AI) needs to consider a trader's circumstances alongside market data.

From Trading Signals to Contextual Intelligence

Machine-learning models can analyse historical market data to identify patterns that might offer trading opportunities.

A signal based on historical prices does not, by itself, account for a trader’s open positions. If it suggests buying EUR/USD (Euro against the US Dollar), someone already holding a large buy position would need…

USD:

The US dollar has recently come under some pressure as Treasury yields dropped significantly following the higher than expected US inflation data last week.

The reaction might seem illogical as higher inflation should lead to higher interest rates, but the market might be starting to worry about growth.

If economic activity deteriorates, the Fed might be forced to keep a hawkish bias due to persistent inflationary pressures. This could put further pressure on economic growth and eventually require rate cuts.

In fact, further out the curve, we saw a slightly dovish repricing in interest rates expectations despite hot inflation and no changes on the geopolitical…

Solana continues to stay under pressure amid the negative macro backdrop as the geopolitical situation remains unchanged, with stalled US-Iran negotiations and the ongoing Saudi-Houthi conflict. Oil prices are back above $100, the Federal Reserve faces mounting inflation pressures that could force it to raise rates more than expected, and growth concerns are starting to take centre stage. That’s a bad mix for the crypto market.

On the fundamental side, Solana continues to see growth in tokenized equities, stablecoins and institutional adoption. However, these developments are clouded by the broader macro-driven selling.

The main Solana-specific event this week is the Alpenglow…

Crude oil is extending the gains into new highs this week as the market quickly faded the pullback triggered by Trump’s waiver of Russian sanctions. The main driver continues to be the situation in the Middle East where the stalled US-Iran negotiations and the ongoing Saudi-Houthi conflict keep the risk premium elevated.  

The Houthis said yesterday that they launched several attacks on Saudi energy, airport ​and military targets. This conflict intensified sharply recently and has been one of the main drivers of higher oil prices. A de-escalation would likely send crude oil lower and potentially erase October’s gains.

On the US-Iran talks front, there was a report yesterday…

Ethereum has been consolidating around key technical levels as the negative macro backdrop continues to weigh on the crypto market.

Meanwhile, the geopolitical situation remains unchanged amid stalled US-Iran negotiations and the ongoing Saudi-Houthi conflict.

Oil prices are back above the $100 level, the Federal Reserve can only get more hawkish amid higher inflation and growth concerns are starting to take centre stage. That’s a bad mix for risk assets like Ethereum.

This week, the most important event will likely be the release of the US Flash PMIs on Friday, barring a surprising breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations.

If the data disappoints, growth concerns…

• Germany ZEW survey current conditions vs -45.0 expected
• Prior -47.1
• Germany ZEW survey economic sentiment vs 30.0 expected
• Prior 34.7

The breakdownMore to come...

What does the data measure?The ZEW survey measures financial analysts' and institutional investors' views on Germany's economy. The expectations index looks six months ahead, while the current conditions index assesses the present economic situation.

Why does it matter to markets?Germany is Europe's largest economy, so changes in confidence can offer an early indication of where Eurozone growth may be heading. Markets will be watching whether forward-looking optimism holds up or starts to deteriorate.

How does this fit the broader economic picture?Germany's recovery remains fragile,…

Gold rejected a key trendline yesterday as a minor increase in oil prices and Treasury yields weighed on the precious metal. There was no catalyst for the move as the price just continues to range amid lack of meaningful developments.

The geopolitical situation is mostly unchanged, although there was a report yesterday from Al-Arabiya saying that a breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations is expected to be announced this week. It’s not the first time we’ve had such vague reports that eventually failed to live up to expectations, so take it with a pinch of salt.

I think that growth concerns are starting to take centre stage, so the most important event this week will…

• Eurostoxx -0.7%
• Germany DAX -0.7%
• France CAC 40 -0.3%
• UK FTSE 100 -0.3%
• Spain IBEX -0.2%
• Italy FTSE MIB -0.7%

It's a troubling start to the day for European equities as the selling pressure from yesterday looks to extend further. That as investors continue to grapple with a rather uncomfortable mix of political uncertainty, elevated bond yields, and concerns over the global growth outlook.

The French situation remains a major talking point, even if the CAC 40 is holding up slightly better than its regional peers at the open. The weekend unrest in France has only added to the government's fiscal headache, with the France-Germany 10-year yield spread having widened to around 147 basis points this week.

As such, that remains one of the bigger risks…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 20 October 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. session was mainly driven by higher Treasury yields, oil-market uncertainty, and a recovery in technology stocks. The stronger dollar and higher yields pressured gold, while the yen weakened against the dollar. Oil remained sensitive to Middle Eastern tensions and changes in expectations for Russian supplies. The weak housing confidence reading added to concerns about high borrowing costs, while upcoming U.S. economic releases and Federal Reserve guidance remain key drivers for traders.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should watch China’s rate decision, U.S. dollar strength, falling regional stocks, and geopolitical…