Market News

Bitcoin made a run higher today, but the buyers have some work to do.

After moving above both its 100- and 200-hour moving averages and reaching $83,075, the price has rotated back between those technical levels. That puts the short-term bias back in neutral territory, with traders waiting for the next shove.

Last week’s rebound stalled below the moving averages

Last week, bitcoin moved higher and found resistance near $84,178. A ceiling was developed at that area, before rotating lower. The decline took the price below its 100- and 200-hour moving averages—the blue and green lines on the chart below—and into the swing area between $80,106 and $81,183.

Thursday’s low briefly broke below that area, but the sellers could not sustain the…

• BOS indicator -0.33 vs -0.38 in Q2 (revised from -0.39)
• Future sales balance of opinion +42 vs +15 in Q2
• 18% of firms report an outright decline in sales over the past 12 months vs 22% in Q2
• 6% of firms expect a recession in the next year vs 17% in Q2
• 41% of firms expect inflation above 3% over the next two years vs 44% in Q2
• Consumers’ 5-year inflation expectations 3.91% vs 3.39% in Q2
• 53.0% of consumers expect a recession in the next 12 months vs 54.6% in Q2

Roughly three-quarters of the Business Outlook Survey interviews were done before Canada-US trade talks broke down and Ottawa announced new counter-tariffs so this data is already stale. The same goes for the consumer survey, where about three-quarters of responses came in before the…

Technology takes the lead

Recall that last week, the Dow industrial average moved modestly higher (+0.67%) while the S&P 500 (-1.95%), Nasdaq Composite (-4.48%) and Nasdaq 100 (-5.49%) all fell. The the chip and AI sector were particularly vulnerable

Today, that performance has flipped. The Dow is modestly lower, while the broader indices are finding buyers:

• Dow industrial average: −0.15%

• S&P 500: +0.41%

• Nasdaq Composite: +0.88%

• Nasdaq 100: +1.11%

Helping lead the recovery are chip and AI-related stocks, with SanDisk up 6.54%, Intel gaining 4.41%, and SK Hynix advancing 4.10%.

Last week, CoreWeave fell approximately 25% (currently up 2.18%), SanDisk lost 17.9% (up 6.54% today), Lam Research dropped 17.2% (up 4.88% today), and Western Digital…

• Priorw as 32
• Current sales 33 vs 35 prior
• Sales over the next six months 32 vs 37 prior
• Prospective buyers 18 vs 23 prior

The latest survey found that 43% of builders cut prices in October, the highest share during the 2020-2026 period. The average price cut remained at 6% for the seventh consecutive month. Meanwhile, 65% of builders reported using sales incentives in October, the 19th straight month at least 60% of builders have done so.

This is a response to yet-another rise in borrowing costs, with US mortages nearing 7.5% on a 30-year fixed in the period.

For background, The NAHB Housing Market Index is a monthly survey of homebuilder sentiment published by the National Association of Home Builders. It’s released around mid-month at 10 am…

Canada’s September CPI report gave traders a little something on both sides of the inflation debate.

Headline inflation rose to 3.1% year over year from 3.0% in August, but came in below expectations of 3.2%. Meanwhile, inflation excluding gasoline slowed to 2.2% from 2.4%.

Energy remains the problem area. Gasoline prices increased 27.8% from a year earlier, while fuel oil and other fuels surged 57.8%, with a greater impact on households in Atlantic Canada. Shelter inflation also accelerated, although rent growth held steady and mortgage interest costs continued to decline.

The better news came from groceries. Annual inflation slowed to 1.7%, the lowest since May 2024, with fresh vegetables and sugar and confectionery prices declining from a…

The new trading week begins with a mixed US dollar, lower Treasury yields and oil, and a split in US stock-index futures. Nasdaq 100 futures are leading the upside, while the Dow is pointing lower.

In the morning video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD—from a technical perspective. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either the buyers or sellers more control.

The main geopolitical headline comes from Al-Arabiya, which reports that a breakthrough in US–Iran negotiations could be announced this week. Meanwhile, China’s overnight economic releases beat expectations on growth, industrial production and retail sales. Canadian CPI is the main…

• Prior was 3.0%
• CPI +0.1% m/m vs +0.2% expected
• BOC core 2.2% y/y vs 2.4% prior
• BOC core 0.0% m/m vs +0.1% prior
• CPI median 1.9% vs 1.9% expected (prior was 2.0%)
• CPI trim 1.8% vs 1.9% expected (prior was 1.9%)
• CPI common 2.4% vs 2.6% prior

This is a good report from the Bank of Canada and should ease pressure on them to hike rates. At the same time, that's a negative for the Canadian dollar and we quickly saw USD/CAD rose to 1.4106 from 1.4075.

USDCAD 10 mins:

For background, Statistics Canada publishes the Consumer Price Index monthly, usually in the third week of the following month at 8:30 am ET. It measures price changes for a fixed basket of goods and services bought by Canadian households, covering shelter, food, transportation, household…

Most major central banks have a clearly defined inflation target around 2% per year over the medium term. But why they don't aim for 0%, so that prices remain unchanged over time?  The answer lies in how inflation expectations influence economic decisions, the risks associated with deflation and the limitations of monetary policy.

An inflation target provides a clear reference point for households, businesses and financial markets. This matters because expectations influence behaviour. Businesses consider expected inflation when setting prices and negotiating wages. Workers take expected changes in the cost of living into account when negotiating salaries. Households factor expected inflation into decisions about consumption, saving and…

Al-Arabiya is saying that a breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations is expected to be announced this week as negotiators are working to narrow differences and secure mutual concessions to prevent a renewed escalation.

The timing of the report is interesting as we approach the US midterm elections due on November 3. Trump has a strong political incentive to end this costly conflict and ease pressure on energy prices, which have become a key source of concern for the American people. A breakthrough would send oil prices sharply lower on expected supply improvement and Strait of Hormuz reopening.

However, although the timing of the report could give markets hope for an imminent breakthrough, one should take it with a pinch of salt. Recent…

Headlines:

• US futures look to rebound after tech rout but the real test is still ahead
• European stock market open: French unrest weighs on stocks to start the new week
• Gold eyes another run at $4,200 but the bond market still holds the key
• Gold remains supported as real yields fall amid growth concerns. What to watch next?
• Bitcoin rebounds from a key support as risk sentiment improves on falling oil prices, but will it last?

Markets:

• AUD leads, EUR lags on the day
• WTI crude oil down 0.4% to $98.64
• Gold up 0.2% to $4,172
• European stocks down; S&P 500 futures +0.5%
• Bitcoin up 1.5% to $82,124

It's a rather contrasting session to start the new week in Europe today.

The mood music for European stocks is rather dour and that is quite different from the tune…

Zcash rebounded from recent lows as risk sentiment improved slightly following the fall in oil prices after Trump waived several Russian sanctions over the weekend. However, ZEC remains vulnerable to deteriorating macro conditions, with persistently elevated energy prices and recent growth concerns continuing to weigh on the crypto market.

The upcoming NU7 network upgrade is approaching a key milestone, with developers expected to make a final decision on mainnet activation tomorrow. The upgrade targets November 5 and would drastically reduce block times, alongside changes to the network's sustainability mechanism. A confirmation of the November 5 rollout could be…

When most people look at designer bags, what do you think is the first thought that comes to mind? I'd wager it would be along the lines of "nice, but absolutely not at that price". And that very moment of hesitation could actually tell us more about the economy than you might think.

Now, a luxury bag isn't like groceries or petrol. It is a want, not a need. But when people start thinking twice about those purchases, it is worth thinking about the bigger picture and whether consumer confidence is taking a hit.

According to Citi's credit card data released earlier this month, luxury spending fell 6% year-on-year in September. And that follows from the declines of 4% in both July and August before that. The data shows three consecutive months…