Market News

• Canada September CPI 3.1% y/y vs 3.2% expected
• US NAHB housing market index 29 vs 31 prior
• Bank of Canada Q3 business outlook survey -0.33 vs -0.38 prior
• CIBC cuts gold forecasts but still sees $5,500 in 2028
• Oil reverses course higher after US and Houthi attacks

Markets:

• S&P 500 up 0.4%
• WTI crude oil up $2.37 to $103.78
• US 10-year yields up 4.2 bps to 5.14%
• AUD leads, JPY lags
• Gold down $25 to $4139

The AI trade rebounded on Monday as memory and chip names jumped on renewed optimism even as CoreWeave shares edged lower on debt worries. Amazon shares also jumped after an upgrade, gaining 5%. Despite that, decliner outnumbered advancers 2:1 so the breadth of the move was narrow.

Part of the reason for that was an intraday reversal in oil prices. Crude…

Buyers start to turn the technical picture around

The NZDUSD buyers have started to turn the shorter-term technical picture around after the prolonged move lower. The recovery has come in steps, with each break giving buyers a little more confidence. However, there is still work to do before the recent gains can develop into a more meaningful correction of the broader decline.

Thursday’s moving average break provided the catalyst

The first step came on Thursday when the price moved away from the 100- and 200-hour moving averages (blue and green lines on the chart above). Those moving averages help define the shorter-term bias and give traders a reference for risk. When the price can move above both and build distance from them, it suggests…

U.S. stocks closed mixed to start the new trading week, with the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 gaining more than 1% while the Dow industrial average edged lower.

After last week’s selling, buyers returned to some of the technology names. Amazon led the large-cap rebound with a gain of nearly 5%, while storage, semiconductor and software shares featured prominently among the strongest performers.

However, the gains were far from universal. More stocks declined than advanced on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Buyers are making a play, but broader participation would give the recovery more credibility.

The closing numbers

• Dow Industrial Average: fell 35.81 points, or 0.07%, to 51,966.60.

• S&P 500: rose 33.20 points, or 0.43%, to 7,692.64.

• Nasdaq…

If Goldman is right that higher yields reflect structural demand for capital rather than a temporary inflation scare, the pressure on long-dated bonds may prove persistent, keeping term premiums elevated across developed markets. For equities, the read-through is that index-level strength is resting heavily on earnings, so any disappointment from AI-linked leaders could expose valuations that have already compressed. Rising Japanese yields matter beyond Japan, since higher returns at home can draw domestic investors back from overseas markets and support the yen. Australian and UK bonds, already above 5%, stand out as the high-yield end of the developed world, which may support the Australian dollar and sterling on carry grounds. Higher…

Morgan Stanley IM’s view offers a more benign reading of the yield rise than fears of fiscal strain or a growth scare, and if markets adopt it, US equities could keep absorbing higher yields as long as earnings deliver. The house’s underweight in duration and preference for credit suggest it expects long-dated Treasuries to stay under pressure rather than rally. Its tilt toward Japan aligns with strong nominal growth there, while the underweight on Europe points to relative weakness in European stocks. For oil, the inflation component of high nominal growth is worth watching, since energy costs tied to the Iran war feed directly into it. The main risk to the thesis is a disappointing Q3 earnings season, which would remove the cushion…

Sellers have repeatedly defended the ceiling

The USDJPY technical story since September 23 has centered on two key levels: the 50% midpoint of the decline from the July 2026 high to the September low at 158.419, and the 200-day moving average, currently at 158.565.

The midpoint has remained fixed, while the 200-day moving average (higher green line) has edged higher from around 158.42. Together, they have created a resistance area where sellers have repeatedly leaned against the market and pushed the price lower.

There have been at least 10 tests of that area, with three separate breaks above both technical levels. The highest reached 159.019 during the move that began on September 24. Another reached 158.72 on October 12.

On each break, the…

Republicans are running out of time to turn it around ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.

Trump is increasingly a liability of the party as his approval hits a record low of just 31%. It's an ugly chart as it continues to deteriorate with an inflection following the March war in Iran.

Worse yet is the broader polling trend:

• Democrats lead Republicans 47% to 35% on the generic congressional ballot.

• That 12-point advantage is the largest of the current election cycle, according to Reuters/Ipsos.

The generic ballot doesn’t translate directly into seats but that is an uncomfortable gap for Republicans. If it carries through to election day, it points to an acrimonious final two years for Trump in the White House, including investigations on…

Gold bulls are getting a reminder that geopolitical turmoil doesn't always send bullion higher. Sometimes the inflation and interest-rate consequences overwhelm the safe-haven bid and sometimes the point of accumulating gold reserves is to use them when a shock -- like a war -- hits.

That's the challenge running through CIBC's latest precious metals outlook. The bank has sharply lowered its forecasts as higher energy prices, a stronger US dollar and a more hawkish Federal Reserve complicate the trade. But it still sees a substantial recovery over the next two years.

In its October report, CIBC cuts its 2027 average gold forecast to US$5,200 an ounce from $6,500. Its 2028 estimate falls to $5,500 from $6,000, while the fourth-quarter 2026…

Oil prices have reversed higher in light of fresh reports about two separate Middle East strikes. WTI had traded down to $99.24 earlier and brent to $106.82, both after the US waived santions on Russian fuel.

That move now seems to have bought about 15 hours of lower oil prices and now crude is up on the day, with WTI at $103.13 and brent just above $110. 

Two stories have driven the gains, the first is that the Iranian navy said the US attacked the Konarek naval base with "two light projectiles" early this morning and that wo solidiers were injured. 

More recently, a pair of reports highlight that Houthis claimed six attacks on Saudi Arabia in the past 48 hours, including strikes on the Yanbu oil facility owned by Aramco, the Shaybah…

Technology stocks are trying to recover, but a report from Goldman Sachs highlights the selling pressure behind last week’s decline and that may put a limit to the gains. .

According to Goldman’s prime brokerage data, hedge funds cut technology positions at the fastest pace in at least a decade during the five trading sessions through October 15. Semiconductors saw the largest dollar amount of selling. Despite that reduction, technology exposure remains elevated, with net allocation still in the 90th percentile compared with the past five years.

That leaves traders with a question: Has the selling cleared the way for a recovery, or will hedge funds use a rebound to reduce exposure further?

That is where the technicals come into play. The…

As London/European traders head home, the major European stock indices are closing lower across the board. Italy and Spain led the declines, but there was little separation, with all five major markets falling more than 1%. Not a good day. 

The closing snapshot showed:

• Germany’s DAX: 25,319.78, down 302.84 points or 1.18%.

• France’s CAC: 7,868.06, down 88.63 points or 1.11%.

• UK’s FTSE 100: 10,764.70, down 117.21 points or 1.08%.

• Spain’s Ibex: 19,039.30, down 287.00 points or 1.49%.

• Italy’s FTSE MIB: 49,086.28, down 770.89 points or 1.55%.

After last week’s gains, sellers had their say to start the new trading week.

European Bond yields move higher with France leading the way. 

European benchmark 10-year yields moved higher, with France leading the…

Earnings season heats up: Are investors beginning to reward good results again?

Wall Street's earnings season began cautiously, with investors punishing disappointments more severely than they rewarded positive surprises. But fresh trading activity on October 19 suggests that sentiment may be stabilizing. With Netflix, Tesla and Meta preparing to report, the next question is whether investors are becoming more willing to reward strong corporate results, or whether this improvement is only temporary.

Early earnings reactions were more negative than positive

The third-quarter earnings reporting season, taking place during the fourth quarter of 2026, began with some uncomfortable signals for stock market bulls.

An investingLive review of…