Market News

Hormuz attack counts are a floor, and a US Navy FAQ may help explain why

The official tally of attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is incomplete, and the body that compiles it says so. In its weekly overview on 16 October, the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre (UKMTO) said it was struggling to establish the true number of attacks because the majority of vessels targeted were refusing to report to it. It recorded 12 attacks that week, ten of them inside the Strait, with one vessel lost. It added that it knew of further incidents through other sources but could not include them without verification.

For oil traders, that matters more than any single weekly figure. Freight rates, war-risk premiums and assessments of supply risk all…

The dispute raises the risk of further escalation in a conflict that has increasingly targeted energy infrastructure on both sides, with the clearest risk for oil to the upside. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and diesel facilities have been a source of supply concern in product markets, and if Washington’s pressure on Kyiv to halt them fails, those attacks could intensify, tightening diesel supply further at a time when the Iran war is already keeping crude elevated. A weaker Ukrainian air defence could also leave its own energy system more exposed to Russian strikes. Against that, Friday’s US waiver of Russian oil and gas sanctions could ease some supply concerns if it allows more Russian barrels to reach buyers. On balance, the…

BlackRock’s view reinforces a theme running through bank research this week: higher yields are now the norm, but the reasons behind them matter more than the level. For euro area bonds, the near-term focus is Moody’s decision on France’s credit rating, with a downgrade likely to pressure French debt and widen the gap over German Bunds. Any spillover selling in markets such as Spain could prove an opportunity if fundamentals hold up, in BlackRock’s view. Its upgrade of US Treasuries signals that the world’s largest asset manager sees value in longer-dated US debt at current yields, which could help cap further rises if other investors follow. A rising term premium driven by fiscal worries remains the main risk that could push yields higher…

JPMorgan Chase has extended JPM Coin (ticker JPMD), its US dollar deposit token, to the Ethereum mainnet. Approved institutional clients now have a second public network for moving dollars around the clock. Bloomberg reported the move on Monday, 19 October, citing the bank, and the Ethereum Foundation flagged it the same day. JPMD has run on Base, Coinbase’s Ethereum layer-2 network, since November 2025, and Base remains in service.

The move is a meaningful step for Ethereum as financial infrastructure. It is not, on current evidence, a new source of demand for ether. JPMD also remains closed to everyone except approved JPMorgan clients.

What JPM Coin actually is

JPMD is a deposit token: each unit represents one US dollar that a client holds…

The UBS view separates two trades that moved together last week: highly leveraged neoclouds, whose models depend on cheap funding, and cash-rich hyperscalers and chipmakers, whose earnings continue to grow. If that distinction takes hold, it could support a rotation within tech rather than a broad exit, with semiconductor names and the large cloud platforms holding up better than specialist GPU renters. The rates backdrop is the key swing factor. With bond yields elevated across developed markets, any further rise in funding costs would weigh most on the neocloud segment. Hyperscaler results over the coming weeks will be the next test, with UBS expecting cloud revenue growth to accelerate.

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The UBS note was before the bounce on Monday,…

UBS’s view puts the euro’s recent weakness down mainly to sentiment rather than fundamentals, which would leave room for a rebound if French budget risks ease. The near removal of pricing for an October Fed hike takes away one of the dollar’s main supports, and UBS sees a sustained break below $1.10 as increasingly unlikely as a result. Energy is a key swing factor: the euro area is a large energy importer, so UBS’s expectation that Brent will approach $80 by next summer is supportive, while any escalation in the Iran war that lifts oil prices again would weigh on the currency. French bond spreads are the indicator to watch, since narrower spreads would back the recovery case and further widening would undercut it.

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Earlier from analysts…

Goldman’s estimate implies Brent is trading well above where supply and demand alone would put it, which leaves prices vulnerable to a sharp drop if the risk of escalation fades, and exposed to further spikes if the conflict widens. The forecast path points lower over time, with the bank expecting a shift into surplus from the fourth quarter to pull prices back toward $80 in 2027, a level consistent with UBS’s view that Brent will approach $80 next summer. Near-term support is likely to come from depleted inventories, including a US Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest since 1982, and from investors using oil as a hedge for their stock and bond holdings. For inflation-sensitive markets, a fading premium would ease pressure on central…

The direct market effect is likely to be modest, because the PBOC is formalising a rate it already targets rather than cutting. The market read so far suggests limited impact, with China’s 30-year bond yield slipping only about 1 basis point and the overnight rate steady around 1.26%. The bigger question for traders is whether the new anchor is eventually set near today’s overnight level of about 1.25%, below the seven-day rate of 1.40%. Markets could treat that as a mild easing signal, which would tend to support Chinese bonds and weigh slightly on the yuan. For the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which often trade as proxies for China, the framework change matters less than whether it comes with genuine easing that lifts Chinese…

With markets pricing about 18 basis points of tightening, a hike next week is the base case but not fully locked in, leaving room for the Canadian dollar and front-end yields to move on the decision and guidance. Canada’s two-year bonds have been the weakest front end among the major markets, reflecting that shift in pricing. Oil is central to the outlook: Scotiabank flags the risk of an escalation in the Iran war after the US midterms, which could push energy and commodity prices higher and add to Canadian inflation pressure. Higher crude would normally support the Canadian dollar, but it would also strengthen the case for further tightening. If the Bank of Canada holds instead, the loonie would likely weaken, and markets could read the…

Steady central bank buying gives gold a source of demand that tends to be less sensitive to price than investment flows, which can help cushion pullbacks driven by speculative or ETF selling. That matters more now that bond yields are high across developed markets, a backdrop that would normally weigh on a non-yielding asset like gold. The pick-up in August suggests official buyers have not been deterred by elevated prices. For China, buying well above its reported additions would point to a continued push to diversify reserves away from the dollar. Geopolitical risk, including the Iran war, remains a parallel driver of safe-haven demand and could reinforce the official-sector bid.

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Earlier from GS:

• Goldman Sachs says rising global bond…

A smaller emergency reserve reduces Washington’s ability to respond to any fresh supply shock, which could add to the risk premium in crude if the Iran war escalates. Goldman Sachs estimated last week that spot Brent carries a premium of nearly $25 a barrel above fair value (I'll have more to come on this separately), citing near-record-low global inventories as one of the factors keeping prices high. Because the release is structured as an exchange, around 200 million barrels are due to be returned to the reserve, so refilling will add a source of demand later and could support prices further out. For now, continued drawdowns add barrels to the market at a time of tight supply, but traders are likely to watch how much firepower remains…

A hold is widely expected and should be largely priced, so any reaction is likely to come only from a surprise. An unexpected cut (not gonna happen ... thats how unespected it'd be!) would probably weigh on the yuan, given the already wide gap between US and Chinese yields, while giving Chinese equities and property names a lift. The Australian and New Zealand dollars, often traded as proxies for Chinese growth, could firm on a cut as a sign of extra support for demand. For oil, any easing from the world’s largest crude importer would be a modest positive for demand, at a time when Iran war disruptions are already keeping supply risk elevated. A hold keeps the focus on liquidity tools such as a reserve requirement ratio cut as the more…