Market News

Gold futures outlook today: Why buying low and selling high may beat chasing breakouts

Gold futures traders may currently find more attractive opportunities by buying weakness and selling strength than by chasing the next breakout. The reason is relatively simple: COMEX gold futures (GC) have repeatedly moved within a broader trading range of $4,091 to $4,250, without establishing a sustained directional move beyond either boundary.

That does not mean gold cannot break out tomorrow, or even today. It means traders should first recognize the market environment they are dealing with and adjust their expectations accordingly.

Based on the four-hour analysis entering October 20, 2026, the evidence still favors a predominantly sideways market,…

It didn't take long for US equities to seek out a bit of a breather, with the bounce yesterday looking fairly decent after tech stocks were trounced in the week before. The Nasdaq climbed by 1.1% on Monday, recovering some ground after last week's heavy selloff, while the S&P 500 added 0.4%.

Sure, it's a decent start to the week. However, let's not forget how poorly things played out last week for tech stocks even as Treasury yields fell. That definitely left investors questioning whether the struggling market breadth and momentum is finally catching up or whether the enormous spending behind the AI boom is beginning to fail to justify lofty valuations.

In any case, I would argue that the bond market will still have a big say in how all of…

There is arguably just one key expiry level to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.

That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1265 level, with the strike sitting roughly 35 pips away from the spot price. Should the euro manage to build on the hold above 1.1200, the size of the expiries is significant enough to potentially act as a price magnet. Having said that, the euro might find it tough to gather lasting bids as the broader sentiment is still weighed down by French political and fiscal concerns. The expiries on their own may not be enough to draw price higher in this instance.

Besides, there is also the dollar side of the equation to consider. The bond market remains in focus and Treasury yields have nudged back a little higher…

Daiwa’s reading points to a BOJ that is not in a hurry but has not finished hiking, which keeps the yen supported on any sign that wage growth is becoming entrenched. A hold at the 29-30 October meeting, paired with an upgraded inflation assessment, would keep a December hike in play and could lift short-dated Japanese government bond yields. Oil is a key swing factor: Daiwa notes import prices have started rising again on higher crude, and any further jump in oil linked to the Iran war would add to the risk of inflation overshooting, strengthening the case for faster tightening. For Japanese equities, gradual hikes alongside solid capital spending are unlikely to derail the market, though a faster pace would test valuations. Long-dated…

• Daiwa: BOJ shifts focus from reaching 2% inflation to keeping it there, wages hold the key
• MUFG says firmer China growth offers yuan support, but uneven demand limits the upside
• PBOC to run daily overnight reverse repos to Nov 2 in first step after policy rate signal
• Are US Treasuries still a hedge? Citi Australia CEO says the bonds are losing their edge
• ICYMI: Morgan Stanley names Amazon a top pick, lifts target to $350 on five catalysts led by AWS
• China holds loan prime rates for 17th month as policy focus shifts to short-term rates
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7200 (vs. estimate at 6.6813)
• The Hormuz shipping attacks nobody is counting: inside the US Navy’s go-dark guidance
• JPMorgan brings JPM Coin to Ethereum mainnet: what changes,…

The direct effect should be calmer overnight funding in China’s interbank market through month-end, with the 1 trillion yuan daily cap large enough to stop short-term rates spiking. The bigger market question is the rate the operations carry, which has not been confirmed. If it is set near the current overnight market level of around 1.25%, below the seven-day policy rate of 1.40%, traders may read it as a preview of a lower policy anchor, which would tend to support Chinese government bonds and could weigh on the yuan. If it is set at the top of the existing corridor, it would mainly act as a ceiling and carry little policy signal. For the Australian and New Zealand dollars and for oil, the operations matter only if they turn out to be…

MUFG’s view points to a modestly more supportive backdrop for the yuan, with firmer growth easing pressure on Beijing to add stimulus that could weaken the currency. The caveat is that a recovery led by factories and exports, rather than households, leaves China reliant on external demand and exposed to trade friction, which caps how far that support can run. Monetary policy is the other swing factor: the PBOC’s move to daily overnight funding operations this week has raised questions about whether a lower policy anchor could follow, which would weigh on the yuan if confirmed. For the Australian and New Zealand dollars, firmer industrial output is a mild positive for commodity demand, though a 20% slide in property investment remains a…

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.

• PBOC zero 7-day reverse repos today (65bn mature so a net drain)

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Earlier:

• China holds loan prime rates for 17th month as policy focus shifts to short-term rates
• Explainer: China eyes overnight rate as main policy tool, what it means for markets
• China LPR preview: rates seen on hold for a 17th month after Q3 GDP beat

The hold was widely expected and should have little direct market impact. The more important signals for traders now come from China’s short-term rates. Monday’s comments from PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng about moving to an overnight policy rate matter more for the outlook, since the level at which any new rate is set will shape expectations for future easing. With Q3 growth back inside Beijing’s target range and the Federal Reserve tightening, the case for imminent cuts is weak, which limits downside pressure on the yuan from rate differentials. For the Australian and New Zealand dollars and for oil, an unchanged LPR offers no fresh stimulus signal for Chinese demand, keeping the focus on fiscal support and incoming activity data.

Newswire…

The call adds to a theme seen in bank research this week: investors are being steered toward cash-rich hyperscalers rather than more leveraged parts of the AI buildout. UBS and Morgan Stanley Investment Management have both made similar points recently. Amazon’s outperformance on the day against other large cloud names suggests investors see AWS as having the most room to re-rate. The key test comes with third-quarter results on 29 October, where any sign of accelerating cloud growth would support the bull case. Spending is the risk: Morgan Stanley’s higher capital expenditure forecasts mean returns will be closely scrutinised, especially with bond yields elevated and investors questioning the pace of AI investment. The Nvidia link also…

If more investors share Woodruff’s view, demand for longer-dated Treasuries as portfolio insurance could weaken, adding upward pressure on the term premium, the extra yield investors demand to hold long-term bonds. That would leave yields more exposed to supply and inflation news. It could also support alternatives that investors have been using as hedges, including commodities. Goldman Sachs has said oil is attracting demand as a portfolio hedge, and it sees central bank buying as structural support for gold. Energy is central to the inflation story: higher oil prices linked to the Iran war helped push the US 10-year yield to its highest since 2007 in September, so any renewed spike in crude would reinforce the case that bonds are a…

Hormuz attack counts are a floor, and a US Navy FAQ may help explain why

The official tally of attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is incomplete, and the body that compiles it says so. In its weekly overview on 16 October, the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre (UKMTO) said it was struggling to establish the true number of attacks because the majority of vessels targeted were refusing to report to it. It recorded 12 attacks that week, ten of them inside the Strait, with one vessel lost. It added that it knew of further incidents through other sources but could not include them without verification.

For oil traders, that matters more than any single weekly figure. Freight rates, war-risk premiums and assessments of supply risk all…