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The yen’s muted response suggests markets saw little new here beyond confirmation of the BoJ’s existing approach. For Japanese government bonds, Ueda’s message cuts two ways: he is not offering a backstop at any particular yield level, yet he is signalling the bank will act if the selloff becomes disorderly. Super-long JGBs, the most sensitive part of the curve, are where any test of that commitment would show up first. His argument that falling behind on rates would push yields higher strengthens the hawkish framing ahead of 30 October. Global bond investors will watch closely, given Japan’s role in global yields and capital flows.

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Ueda is telling bond markets that the best protection against a disorderly selloff is a BoJ that keeps…

The report adds to pressure on AI infrastructure stocks already under strain, with CoreWeave’s sharp weekly fall showing investors are quicker to punish debt-funded buildouts. Nscale may face pressure to price its IPO more conservatively or delay it, and peers seeking capital could find the window narrower. For the energy complex, the story reinforces the view that grid capacity, not chips, is becoming the binding constraint on data centre growth. That supports utilities, independent power producers and gas-fired generation tied to data centre demand. For Microsoft itself, the move reads as capital discipline rather than a retreat from AI spending.

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Earlier:

• Only a third of the US data centre pipeline looks credible as AI financing…

For oil, the headline risk cuts both ways. Any credible move toward a Ukraine settlement would typically trim the risk premium tied to Russian supply, but the summit is unconfirmed and energy experts see the Iran war, not Russia, as the main driver of diesel prices, so the US diesel deal is unlikely to ease product markets much. Ukraine’s strike on a St Petersburg oil terminal and continued pressure on Russian refineries keep product supply risk alive in the near term. A softer US sanctions stance on Russia is a modest bearish factor for crude over time if it allows more Russian barrels to flow freely. For the Australian dollar, any sign of reduced great-power tension on Chinese soil would be mildly supportive for risk sentiment, though…

The repricing so far is selective rather than AI-wide: the heaviest pressure falls on companies that need outside capital to build, including Oracle, SoftBank and former bitcoin miners turned AI hosts such as Cipher and TeraWulf, while cash-rich hyperscalers like Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon are far less exposed and some of their shareholders may welcome slower capex. The second-order risk sits with Nvidia and the wider chip supply chain, where part of future demand depends on customers that have yet to secure financing. In Asia, any push-out of orders would show up first in SK Hynix, Samsung and TSMC, a meaningful risk for a chip-heavy Kospi after its strong run. At the index level, the AI build-out has been a key support for US…

For oil, China’s position as the largest crude importer makes this release a demand signal at a sensitive moment, with the Iran war already squeezing Gulf supply. Soft domestic numbers would temper the demand side of the oil story even as supply risk keeps prices elevated. The Australian and New Zealand dollars, as proxies for Chinese growth, are exposed to any downside surprise, and the Australian dollar’s early gains against the euro could be tested. A weak print would also lift expectations for policy easing, putting Tuesday’s loan prime rate decision and the yuan in focus. An upside surprise driven mainly by exports would do little to ease concerns about trade friction.

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More data due today:

• Economic and event calendar in Asia - China…

A wider trade gap is a modest negative for the New Zealand dollar at the margin, since a larger external deficit means more reliance on foreign funding. Oil is the key channel to watch: with the Iran war keeping crude prices elevated, any confirmation that fuel drove the import jump would point to imported inflation pressure the RBNZ cannot ignore. That cuts against the dovish read from soft domestic demand and keeps further tightening on the table. Rate markets will weigh this against the pause they have leaned toward for 28 October. China’s growth data later today matters more for the kiwi’s near-term direction, given China’s role as a key export market.

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New Zealand is buying more from the world while selling no more to it, and with…

The early dip is modest, which suggests traders see the Russia waiver as a supply cushion rather than a game-changer while Hormuz risk remains live. Diesel is the product to watch: any sign that Russian product exports are rising would ease pressure on middle distillate cracks, which have carried much of the tightness from refinery attacks. Against that, a confirmed mine strike in Hormuz would revive the shipping-risk premium quickly, and war-risk insurance and freight costs could rise further. A Pakistani diplomatic visit to Tehran offers a faint de-escalation thread, but the market is likely to treat it cautiously until there is substance. Expect headline-driven, two-way trade.

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Earlier:

• Euro slides against Australian dollar as three…

The drop in EUR/AUD is a euro story first, which makes it vulnerable to a partial reversal once main Asian centres open and liquidity improves. The real test comes with the European open: French government bond spreads over Bunds and the euro’s performance against the US dollar will show whether the weekend headlines are being priced as a lasting political and fiscal risk or as a passing shock. Tuesday’s NATO council meeting is a further event risk for the euro. On the Australian side, Kent’s remarks offer the only scheduled domestic catalyst, and anything read as dovish would blunt the Aussie’s gains.

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Earlier:

• EUR update, France riots: 2,400 arrested as cost-of-living protests turn to looting and arson
• US threatens EU with devastating…

A reading barely above 50 does little to shift the outlook for the New Zealand dollar, which takes its lead from global risk sentiment and rate expectations more than from second-tier surveys. A soft employment component and persistent concern over interest rates point to an economy still sensitive to borrowing costs, which supports the case for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to stay cautious. The gap between strong manufacturing and sluggish services also suggests the recovery is not yet broad enough to drive domestic inflation. Election uncertainty is likely to keep local data in this subdued range until the result is known.

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New Zealand’s services sector is growing again, but only just, as businesses keep their wallets shut until…

Data from China the focus on the ecnomic info agenda. I'll get a preview posted separately. 

Early FX indications, I'll be back with weekend news soon, US equities soft in weekend trading so far. 

• EUR/USD 1.1191, showing lower in very early trade (its only New Zealand that's active), riots in Paris and elsewhere, Russian drones shot down in Romanian air space
• USD/JPY 158.03
• GBP/USD 1.3315
• USD/CHF 0.8240 ... but bids showing
• USD/CAD 1.4135
• AUD/USD 0.6959, early bids
• NZD/USD 0.5652

The euro is lower in early Asia-Pacific trade, though liquidity is very thin with New Zealand effectively the only FX market open, so early moves may overstate conviction. A fresh airspace violation on NATO’s eastern flank adds a geopolitical risk premium to the single currency, and escalating riots in France and elsewhere in the EU are also weighing on the euro. For energy and freight markets, back-to-back drone incidents near Romania’s coast raise the risk of higher war-risk insurance costs and caution among operators using western Black Sea routes. Tuesday’s NATO council meeting is the next catalyst: a firmer collective response could extend risk aversion, while an outcome framed as containment may let the euro stabilise once deeper…