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The warning adds a fresh transatlantic trade risk to a market that had largely treated EU digital regulation as a compliance issue rather than a trigger for US countermeasures. European exporters with heavy US revenue exposure are the most obvious channel if rhetoric turns into action, while EU satellite and telecom operators that would benefit from reserved spectrum now face a more contested path to that advantage. For the euro, a renewed tit-for-tat narrative is a modest headwind at the margin, though nothing concrete has been announced. Investors will look for whether Washington links tech regulation to broader tariff policy, which would raise the stakes well beyond the satellite sector.

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Earlier:

• Romanian F-16s shoot down two drones…

The unrest adds a domestic political risk layer to the euro, which was already softer in early Asia-Pacific trade, and to French government bonds, where investors are sensitive to anything that pressures spending. Street pressure for more public investment collides with France’s high debt and deficit, so the spread of French yields over German Bunds is the clearest gauge of whether markets see a fiscal or political cost. Retail and luxury names with heavy French store footprints face direct damage and insurance costs, plus the risk of weaker footfall if disruption persists. A revival of yellow vest-style protests would extend these risks well beyond a single weekend.

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Earlier EU news, multiple weight on the euro this morning here early:

• <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-threatens-eu-with-devastating-retaliation-if-brussels-curbs-starlink-spectrum-access" target="_blank"…

S&P 500 forecast after the AI bubble panic: Why Friday's selloff is not yet a major bearish reversal

Friday's selloff in AI and chip stocks looked alarming, but the S&P 500 E-mini futures (ES) are telling a somewhat less frightening story. Following the October 16 close, my four-hour technical analysis still shows a decline within a broader trading range, rather than a confirmed major bearish trend reversal. The next important test is around 7,668, and I explain why in my video below:

AI stocks were hit hard, but the broader market tells a different story

For investors holding semiconductor and AI-related stocks, Friday was certainly an uncomfortable day.

As Adam Button reported in AI names fall as the Nasdaq comes under fresh pressure,…

• BOJ’s Ueda: We will continue to raise rates as underlying inflation approaches 2%
• US September import price index +1.1% vs +0.8% expected
• US September industrial production +0.7% vs +0.4% expected
• US fiscal 2026 budget deficit was the largest in five years

Markets:

• Gold down $2 to $4168
• US 10-year yields down 2 bps to 5.09%
• S&P 500 down 1.2%
• Nasdaq down 2.3%
• WTI crude oil up $3.40 to $101.37
• NZD leads, USD lags

S&P 500 futures were higher heading into the North American session but certainly didn't stay that way. Yesterday's rumors of an AI fund blowing up persisted and spread today. The neoclouds were hard hit again on all kinds of talk about how CoreWeave could use equity to meet debt obligations. They weren't the only ones as the financing…

• September 2025 was a $198B surplus
• Outlays $585B vs $346B a year ago
• Receipts $558B vs $544B a year ago
• FY2026 deficit $1.992 trillion vs $1.775T in FY2025, the largest in five years
• FY2026 gross interest on the debt: record $1.36T, up $144B (12%)

Interest is now the main driver of the deficit. The $144B rise in interest costs accounts for about two-thirds of the $217B increase in the full-year shortfall. Treasury will keep rolling debt at higher rates while the Fed is debating hikes rather than cuts, so that line has nowhere to go but up.

The customs numbers are the most interesting part of the release. Gross customs receipts were $25.27B, roughly in line with the recent run rate. But refunds of $19.36B ate up 77% of that, leaving net customs…

It will be another weekend of pain at the fuel pumps.

WTI crude oil is finishing the week at the highest since September 21 and back over $100 per barrel. WTI last trade up $3.33 to $101.30. Brent crude also touched $110 for the first time since May.

The strong rally to $101 from $98 in the final hours of trading today suggsets lingering worries about US attacks on Iran, particularly after all the news floated this week about the US military preparing MOAB attacks. Trump himself didn't push back against the reports when given the opportunity but he also previously wrote that the US won't attack Iran before the midterms. 

At the same time, things aren't looking great for Republicans in the polls and today the White House announced that new…

The pressure is back on tech stocks today, led by CoreWeave once again.

The market continues to smell a rat in the neocloud space and it's being joined by some of the cybersecurity names and other AI winners. 

CoreWeave is at the center of the selloff, with its unsecured bonds yielding about 15%. Late yesterday, sentiment soured again after Bloomberg highlighted that the founders have sold $3.3B of stock since last year's IPO, including $2.4 billion this year.

Shares of CRWV are down more than 11% today, nearly wiping out yesterday's big bounce.

Other big losers on the day:

• Nebius (NBIS): −11.1% sold alongside CRWV despite funding itself mostly with equity and converts.
• CrowdStrike (CRWD): −7.8% . I don't see a catalyst for the cyber-security…

The major US stock indices are moving lower today as inflation concerns continue to weigh on sentiment. Technology shares are leading the declines:

• Nasdaq Composite: down 1.15%.

• Nasdaq 100: down 1.30%.

• S&P 500: down 0.42%.

But the declines do not tell the whole story. From a technical perspective, each index has a different roadmap. Where is the risk? What would give buyers more control? What would open the door for further selling?

S&P 500: Waiting for the next shove

• The S&P remains between its 100-hour moving average at 7746.68 and its 200-hour moving average at 7706.33.

• Between those levels, the shorter-term bias is neutral. Buyers and sellers are battling it out, waiting for the next shove.

• A move above—and sustained trading above—7746.68…

As London and European traders head home, the major European stock indices are closing higher across the board. The gains also cap a positive trading week for all five major indices, offering a contrast to the selling in the broader U.S. stock indices.

The UK’s FTSE 100 led the weekly advance with a gain of 3.13%. Germany and France followed with gains near 2%, while Italy lagged but still finished modestly higher.

Across the Atlantic, the Dow is holding onto a weekly gain, but the S&P and Nasdaq indices are lower. The more concentrated Nasdaq 100 is taking the biggest hit.

European stocks close higher across the board

The closing levels show:

• Germany’s DAX: +239.99 points, or +0.95%, at 25,622.62.

• France’s CAC 40: +21.98 points, or +0.28%, at…

The flying car gets attention. But is it good for business?

Tesla’s flying car has certainly brought out the “oohs” and “aahs.” And why not? A car that can briefly take flight is going to get attention. From a marketing perspective, that is a win for Tesla. It gets people talking and gives Elon Musk another opportunity to show what his engineers can do.

But is it good for the business?

That is where I have some questions. How many people need a flying sports car? How much will it cost to develop and produce? Could that money—and engineering talent—be better spent on vehicles that more people can afford and use every day? Will the flying version ever get approved for public use? Or is it simply a gimmick?

I am still waiting for the flux…

The big banks set the tone this week: consumers are still spending, businesses are borrowing again, and credit isn’t getting worse. That’s good for growth, but it isn’t the demand destruction the Fed may need. September CPI came in at 3.7% headline and 2.6% core, both above forecast, and futures now price October no-change at 73%. The FOMC meets October 27–28, so next week’s earnings are the last real-economy check before the decision.

Monday, Oct 19

Before market:Cleveland-Cliffs shows auto-sector steel demand and whether tariff protection still translates into pricing. Steel prices are up 52% year-over-year so there is a nice tailwind there but their Canadian operations are struggling due to tariffs. Fifth Third opens the second wave of…

Bitcoin has spent the early part of the week moving back and forth across its 100- and 200-hour moving averages (they are near converged near $82,500). Each modest break above offered an opportunity for the buyers to take control. However, sellers prevailed.  The price moved away from those moving averages and lower, but similarly to the buyers at the high resistance, sellers reached support and found momentum faded as well. And true to form, the price pushed higher. 

Now the price is back at those converged moving averages near $82,500, putting traders at the same key crossroad at the 100 and 200 hour moving averages.

A week of missed opportunities

Bitcoin started the week above its 100-hour moving average and testing its higher 200-hour…