Market News

Yesterday, US PPI came in much higher than expected, but gold's reaction was similar to what we saw after the US CPI release, that is the price initially spiked lower before recovering and rallying to new highs. Treasury yields also fell following the data, pointing to either overstretched positioning or growing concerns about the economic outlook.

Despite the Core PCE estimates now showing a monthly increase of 0.34% in October, the rate hike expectations for October actually fell after the PPI release. What’s more interesting is that further out the curve, we’ve seen a dovish repricing.

On the geopolitical front, we haven’t seen any change. The Saudi Arabia–Houthi conflict…

Seeing as to how the bond market is faring to end the week, you probably wouldn't have guessed that we actually got hotter-than-expected inflation data from both the US CPI and PPI reports in the past few days. In fact, you might even think it was the opposite. Yet, here we are.

10-year Treasury yields are down to 5.09%, poised for back-to-back weekly declines for the first time since June. That is certainly keeping things interesting with yields tumbling back to draw in the 5.00% mark again as broader market sentiment turns more cautious.

The rejection this week at 5.30% following the US CPI report stands out rather clearly, with yields failing to sustain a break higher before retreating sharply. And that now puts the spotlight back on the…

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 16 October 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Asian markets recovered on Friday after the previous session’s technology sell-off, although Indonesia suffered a sharp decline following its MSCI downgrade. The US dollar remained weak as Treasury yields eased, while gold and oil edged lower despite ongoing geopolitical risks. Singapore’s export data showed strong growth, and China’s GDP figures remained an important item to verify.

What does it mean for the European & US sessions?

European and U.S. traders should focus on eurozone inflation, U.S. import prices, industrial production, and central-bank speeches. The dollar is facing pressure from falling bond yields and AI-related market concerns, but…

●         Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.85%, Shanghai Composite up 0.95% Hang Seng up 1.23% ASX up 1.11%

●        Commodities : Gold at $4,204.65 (0.83%) Silver at $58.048 (1.58%), Brent Oil at 105.17 (-0.71%), WTI Oil at 97.16 (-0.83%)

●        Rates : US 10-year yield at 5.069, UK 10-year yield at 5.3772, Germany 10-year yield at 3.4075

●        (USD)  Core Retail Sales m/m

          0.9% to 0.6%  expected

S&P 500 futures were little changed Thursday night after Wall Street’s major indexes recovered from recent losses, with investors rotating out of technology stocks and into other sectors.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 traded slightly below flat, while Nasdaq-100…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 16 October 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. session was driven by higher-than-expected producer inflation, stronger headline retail sales, and uncertainty about the Fed’s next move. Despite the inflation surprise, Treasury yields fell, and the dollar weakened as traders reconsidered the likelihood of an immediate rate hike. Gold and oil advanced, while U.S. stocks recovered from early losses despite continued pressure on AI-related shares.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian markets are recovering from Thursday’s technology-led sell-off, but uncertainty remains high. A weaker U.S. dollar and lower bond yields may support gold and risk-sensitive currencies, while Japanese stocks…

Interest rate expectations are among the most important drivers for financial markets. They influence government bond yields, currencies, equity valuations, and even cryptocurrencies.

But how can traders check whether the market expects a central bank to cut rates, hold them steady, or deliver rate hikes? The answer lies in interest rate derivatives, particularly overnight index swaps (OIS) and interest rate futures.

These instruments allow market participants to express views on future interest rates, hedge their exposure to changes in monetary policy, and translate market prices into implied expectations.

The market doesn't wait for a central bank meeting to form expectations about its next decision. Traders can buy and sell derivatives…

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker whose research examines money, asset prices and US households from 2000 to 2026. A buyer who opens a mortgage quote is looking at the last link in a chain that starts in the bond market.

The starting point for a mortgage rate

A St. Louis Fed explainer on mortgage rates names the 10-year Treasury note as the benchmark for the 30-year mortgage. Treasury securities count as very low risk because the US government backs them, so investors use their yields as the yardstick for other long-term investments.

The choice of a 10-year note for a 30-year loan comes down to how long people keep their…

• Eurostoxx +0.5%
• Germany DAX +0.7%
• France CAC 40 -0.2%
• UK FTSE 100 -0.2%
• Spain IBEX +0.5%
• Italy FTSE MIB +0.6%

European equities are finding some relief today, with most major indices posting modest gains as we approach the end of what has been a rather volatile trading week. The French benchmark index is the notable laggard, with fiscal risks continuing to weigh this week.

For now though, I wouldn't read too much into the early advance just yet. Broader markets have had plenty to digest in trading this week, not least with hotter-than-expected US inflation data from both the CPI and PPI reports. That continues to pose fresh questions on the Fed outlook as well as the bond market selloff, even though there is a much calmer tone in the latter in…

US Stocks Advance as Treasury Yields Tumble – Dow Gains 1.08%

US equity markets finished higher yesterday, although performance was mixed across the major indices as investors continued to reassess the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the gains, advancing 1.08% to close at 52,177, while the S&P 500 rose 0.33% to finish at 7,744. The Nasdaq recorded a more modest increase of 0.08%, closing at 26,713.

US Treasury yields declined sharply across the curve, returning to levels not seen since September, despite stronger-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales data. The policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield fell 5.9 basis points to 4.738%, while the benchmark 10-year…

Agreement with Jefferies’ Stratos Group brings a 25-year Forex pioneer into AvaTrade’s multi-asset ecosystem and opens AvaTrade’s AI-powered platforms to FXCM clients worldwide.

AvaTrade, a leading global online trading broker, today announced a definitive agreement to acquire the FXCM business from Stratos Group International, LLC, a subsidiary of Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (NYSE: JEF). Under the agreement, AvaTrade Markets Ltd. will acquire substantially all of Stratos’ assets and business operations, which are expected to move to AvaTrade over approximately 120 days.

Founded in 1999, FXCM pioneered retail Forex trading and has built a loyal global…