Market News

US Stocks Advance as Treasury Yields Tumble – Dow Gains 1.08%

US equity markets finished higher yesterday, although performance was mixed across the major indices as investors continued to reassess the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the gains, advancing 1.08% to close at 52,177, while the S&P 500 rose 0.33% to finish at 7,744. The Nasdaq recorded a more modest increase of 0.08%, closing at 26,713.

US Treasury yields declined sharply across the curve, returning to levels not seen since September, despite stronger-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales data. The policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield fell 5.9 basis points to 4.738%, while the benchmark 10-year…

Agreement with Jefferies’ Stratos Group brings a 25-year Forex pioneer into AvaTrade’s multi-asset ecosystem and opens AvaTrade’s AI-powered platforms to FXCM clients worldwide.

AvaTrade, a leading global online trading broker, today announced a definitive agreement to acquire the FXCM business from Stratos Group International, LLC, a subsidiary of Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (NYSE: JEF). Under the agreement, AvaTrade Markets Ltd. will acquire substantially all of Stratos’ assets and business operations, which are expected to move to AvaTrade over approximately 120 days.

Founded in 1999, FXCM pioneered retail Forex trading and has built a loyal global…

With no guidance from the chair, short-dated Treasuries and the dollar will take their lead from data before the 27–28 October meeting, which points to bigger reactions to releases. His comment that events have broadly matched expectations leans slightly hawkish, since the September projections pointed to another hike this year. Oil remains a key input: fuel-driven inflation tied to the Iran war is the main source of upside price pressure, so moves in crude will feed directly into hike pricing. A hawkish-leaning Fed has tended to weigh on gold rather than support it.

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Earlier, Hammack no so reticent on forward guidance:

• Fed's Hammack questions whether Fed policy is tight enough as inflation risks build

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Warsh came to Bangkok and said,…

• Warsh won’t prejudge rest of 2026, names October and December as decision points
• Tesla unveils thruster-powered Roadster with $50,000 deposit, production slated for 2028
• Bailey says UK second-round inflation effects subdued so far, too early to judge
• Ethereum whale’s $13.45M loss reflects a year-long exit, not a fresh ETH dump
• Google’s 40-fold quantum leap: big for Willow, smaller for Alphabet’s share price
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7220 (vs. estimate at 6.6947)
• FX option expiries for 16 October 10am New York cut
• Goldman: Warsh’s quieter Fed: why less guidance could mean more market volatility
• Trump draws two red lines on Iran but keeps Pickaxe Mountain strike in play
• India curbs gold ETF buying before Diwali, removing a…

Ethereum whale’s $13.45 million loss is a year-long exit, not a fresh dump

A wallet that began buying Ethereum (ETH) near last year’s market peak has now moved almost its entire position onto exchanges. On-chain analyst Ai Yi flagged the activity, Odaily reported it, and Binance News carried it on Friday. The headline figure, a potential $13.45 million loss on 15,361 ETH, checks out arithmetically. But it describes twelve months of activity, not a single sale this week, and that difference matters for how traders should read it.

What the wallet actually did

The investor started buying in September 2025 at around $4,600 and kept adding as prices fell. In total, 15,810 ETH was withdrawn from exchanges at an average cost of about $4,100,…

The comments are more balanced than Bailey’s late-September warnings, and could take a little heat out of heavily priced November hike bets in short-dated gilts and sterling, without ruling a move out. His point that Middle East news is the biggest driver of gilt yields puts oil and gas prices at the centre of the UK rate outlook: renewed escalation in the Iran war would lift energy costs and strengthen the case for a hike, while any easing would weaken it. Next week’s September inflation data and the 28 October Budget are the next catalysts.

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Background:

• BOE, Bailey, Bangkok. What could possibly go wrong? Preview and 3 questions for the Governor

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Bailey is frustrated with inflation but not yet alarmed by it, which leaves November live…

The Roadster is unlikely to move Tesla’s fundamentals. Estimated volumes of around 2,000 a year are tiny next to the company’s total sales, so any share reaction is likely to be about sentiment and brand rather than earnings. Investor focus remains on Tesla’s AI, robotaxi and robotics ambitions, which carry far more weight in its valuation. The $50,000 upfront deposits bring in some early cash, but the bigger takeaway for investors may be the delay record, which keeps execution risk front of mind.

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Yesterday:

• Barclays sees possible Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement before December

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Tesla’s new Roadster can flip itself in mid-air, which is more than can be said for its delivery schedule, now pointing at 2028.

Summary:

• Tesla unveiled its…

Less forward guidance shifts the burden onto data, which points to bigger moves in short-dated Treasuries, the dollar and rate-sensitive equities around key releases, as this week’s CPI reaction showed. Bond volatility may stay elevated even if the eventual Fed path matches the consensus for a single December hike. Oil is a central variable in that regime: with the Iran war keeping energy costs high, every swing in crude feeds directly into inflation expectations, and with less Fed guidance to anchor them, into rate pricing. Gold is likely to keep trading off yields and hike expectations rather than geopolitical headlines.

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Warsh wants markets to stop staring at the Fed and start reading the economy, but after 15 years of hand-holding,…

There are just a couple of key expiry levels to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.

They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.1200 and 1.1225 levels, sandwiching the current spot price and holding within 15 pips of that either way. If anything else, that could see price action keep rather contained with the expiries having more of a pinning effect as the cut approaches later; all else being equal.

The dollar also weakened in trading yesterday, and that has seen the near-term chart in EUR/USD become more constructive for buyers. Price action is now sitting above both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, with the key technical region seen at 1.1189-02 currently. So, those technical levels will add another layer of defense in…

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.

• PBOC injects 60bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.4%, unchanged rate

The result is a research milestone rather than a revenue event, so any lasting effect on Alphabet shares is likely to be limited, given the company’s value rests mainly on search, cloud and AI. Smaller pure-play quantum stocks are more sensitive to sector headlines and could see sharper sentiment-driven moves. The encryption angle may resurface in crypto markets, but the gap between this result and what code-breaking would require is wide. The bigger signal is competitive: it strengthens Google’s standing in the race for error-corrected quantum computing.

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Google has made quantum computing’s most expensive ingredient much cheaper to cook, but it is still working in a test kitchen, not a factory.

Summary:

• Google says magic state cultivation…

The curbs trim a traditional seasonal support for gold just as Indian festive demand would normally pick up. That adds to pressure on prices, which have already been weighed down by rising expectations of further US rate hikes rather than lifted by geopolitical risk. Physical buying through jewellers is unaffected, so the hit to overall Indian demand may be limited, but the ETF channel has been a growing source of fresh investment flows. Oil remains the root cause: higher crude prices have swollen India’s import bill and weakened the rupee, so a sustained move in oil will shape how long the restrictions stay in place.

--- India wants its citizens to celebrate Diwali with a little less gold, and the bullion market loses one of its more…