- Prior was -0.2% (revised to -0.1%)
Details:
- Ex-autos +0.5% vs 0.3% expected
- Prior ex autos 0.0%
- Ex autos and gas +0.4% vs 0.3% prior (revised to +0.2%)
- Control group +0.5% vs +0.3% expected
- Prior control +0.3% (revised to +0.2%)
- Retail sales y/y % vs +3.2% prior
It’s worth noting that the official Census Bureau advance estimate for February 2026 was originally scheduled for March 16 but has been delayed to April 1, 2026—so the government figures may be releasing today. The data below draws on the January Census report and the NRF’s February reading based on alternative transaction data.
U.S. retail sales are published monthly by the Census Bureau as part of its Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, covering sales at stores, restaurants, and online retailers. The report is one of the most closely watched indicators of consumer spending, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of U.S. GDP. Because it is released about two weeks after the reference month, it offers a timely snapshot of household demand.
The closing months of 2025 were uneven. November saw a solid 0.6% month-over-month gain—the strongest since July—boosted by a rebound in auto sales and strong holiday shopping. December, however, unexpectedly stalled, with gains in building materials and sporting goods offset by declines in furniture, clothing, and electronics.
January 2026 dipped 0.2% from the prior month, the first decline since October, dragged down by sharp drops in motor vehicles, gasoline stations, and clothing. Still, the control group—which strips out autos, gas, building materials, and food services and feeds directly into GDP calculations—managed a 0.3% increase, and year-over-year sales were up 3.2%.
Early readings for February suggest a rebound. The National Retail Federation reported that total retail sales excluding autos and gas rose 0.3% month over month and 6.2% year over year, marking a fifth consecutive month of growth. Clothing stores led with an 11% annual gain. Consumer confidence, however, remained shaky, with the University of Michigan sentiment index sliding to 53.3 in March, suggesting spending resilience may face headwinds in the months ahead.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.