Hardy’s comments carry weight given Vitol’s position as one of the world’s largest independent oil traders with a direct line into physical flows, and the China demand call is arguably the most market-relevant point: framing the current 5-6 million barrel a day gap between 2025 and 2026 Chinese crude imports as unsustainable implies Vitol expects Chinese buying to accelerate from here, a bullish signal for crude demand even as Hardy simultaneously flags a 1.5 million barrel a day contraction in global demand for the year. The Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz figures matter for the supply side of the ledger, quantifying just how much Middle East flow remains exposed to the ongoing conflict, roughly 10 million barrels a day of oil and products still transiting Hormuz and 2-3 million barrels a day of Saudi exports affected via the Mandeb strait. Taken together, the comments reinforce a market narrative of squeezed supply chains running up against demand that could reaccelerate out of China even as broader global consumption softens.
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Vitol’s CEO is describing a market where Middle East barrels are getting harder to move and China’s buying has further to run.
Summary:
- Vitol CEO Russell Hardy said China’s oil-import demand is set to pick up, speaking at the APPEC conference in Singapore
- He called the 5-6 mln b/d gap between China’s 2025 and 2026 crude imports unsustainable
- Hardy said Bab el-Mandeb strait disruptions have affected 2-3 mln b/d of Saudi oil exports
- He estimated around 10 mln b/d of crude and products are still being exported from the Middle East, with a similar volume of oil and products still exiting the Strait of Hormuz
- Hardy expects global oil demand to fall by 1.5 mln b/d in 2026 versus 2025
- He said global product stockpiles are still drawing, and that Russia imported 500,000-600,000 tons of gasoline per month over summer
- Vitol is the world’s largest independent energy trading company, dealing in crude oil, refined products and other commodities across global markets, giving its executives an unusually direct view into physical trade flows
Vitol CEO Russell Hardy said China’s oil-import demand is set to pick up, speaking at the APPEC energy conference in Singapore, and described the current 5-6 million barrel a day gap between China’s 2025 and 2026 crude imports as unsustainable, implying he expects Chinese buying to reaccelerate from current levels. The comment stands out against a broader demand picture Hardy characterised as softer, with global oil demand expected to fall by 1.5 million barrels a day in 2026 compared with 2025.
On the supply side, Hardy quantified the scale of disruption still running through Middle East shipping lanes. He said Bab el-Mandeb strait disruptions have affected 2-3 million barrels a day of Saudi oil exports, while around 10 million barrels a day of crude and products are still being exported from the Middle East overall, with a comparable volume of oil and products continuing to exit the Strait of Hormuz despite the ongoing conflict. Hardy also noted that global product stockpiles are still drawing, a sign that consumption of refined products continues to outpace supply even as crude flows remain disrupted. On Russia, he said the country imported between 500,000 and 600,000 tons of gasoline per month over the summer.
Vitol is the world’s largest independent energy trading company, buying, selling and transporting crude oil, refined products, natural gas and other commodities across global markets rather than producing or refining them itself. Privately held and headquartered in Geneva and Rotterdam, the firm trades several million barrels of oil equivalent a day, giving its executives, including Hardy, an unusually direct vantage point on physical trade flows, freight patterns and regional demand shifts that often surfaces in market-moving commentary at conferences such as APPEC.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.