Headlines:
- Fed rate hike bets surge as Wall Street analysts converge on September move
- Oil prices climb again as Hormuz disruption and Saudi pipeline attack deepen inflation fears
- Gold tests the major $4,300 support again, as rate hike bets and rising oil threaten a breakdown
- Gold price risks deeper drop on break below $4,300 ahead of Fed decision
- How have interest rate expectations changed after last week’s events?
- US stock futures slide as AI worries hit tech stocks ahead of Fed decision
- Bitcoin at risk of a “sell the fact” reaction on the CLARITY Act vote as FOMC decision looms
- Why Bitcoin leads crypto: The crypto market’s risk hierarchy
Markets:
- Brent crude oil +3% to $108.11
- WTI crude oil +3% to $103.13
- USD leads, NZD lags on the day
- European indices lower, S&P 500 futures down 0.6%
- US 10-year yields flat at 4.975%
- Gold down 1.2% to $4,293
It was an eventful start to the new week as markets are now ramping up Fed rate hike bets ahead of the main event this coming Wednesday.
Oil prices are seen surging again with Brent crude topping $108 and WTI crude rising above $103, as continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and the shutdown of a key Saudi oil pipeline is grabbing all the headlines. That is reinforcing inflation fears across markets, underpinning bond yields while signaling to market players that the Fed will likely have to raise interest rates this week.
Fed rate hike odds have now jumped to nearly 90%, as 10-year Treasury yields remain close to 5% for the time being.
As more hawkish Fed bets filter in, the dollar is seen running up to a two-week high. USD/JPY is up 0.6% to 154.55 with EUR/USD down 0.4% to 1.1545 on the day.
At the same time, equities are being punished with major indices in Europe seeing red across the board. The DAX is down 0.4% with the CAC 40 down by 0.6%.
Meanwhile, US futures are also sagging and hit by a double-whammy as AI concerns are also weighing on sentiment. S&P 500 futures are down by 0.6% but Nasdaq futures are being hit hard, sent lower by 1.5% on the day. That as some of the biggest names in AI raised questions over whether development of the most advanced models may need to slow on safety grounds.
Elsewhere, gold is down by 1.2% to $4,293 and is threatening a potential downside technical break while Bitcoin is seen bucking the trend and trading up 0.5% to $77,759 on the day.
It’s still all to play for with the Fed decision set to be the key risk event for markets later this week.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.