- UK August retail sales +0.5% vs -0.2% m/m expected
- Prior -0.5%
- UK August retail sales +2.4% vs +1.9% y/y expected
- Prior +1.6%; revised to +1.2%
- UK August retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +0.6% vs -0.2% m/m expected
- Prior -0.9%
- UK August retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +2.7% vs +1.9% y/y expected
- Prior +2.3%; revised to +1.8%
The breakdownThat’s a considerable beat on retail sales, with a modest rise in broader categories from July to August. Department store sales were up by 1.8% on the month, recovering from July in which retailers attributed to stock availability issues.
Meanwhile, non-store retailers’ sales volumes partially recovered in August from a fall in July – up by 1.7%. ONS notes that it can be attributed to earlier promotional activity in June resulting in lower July sales, while some non-store retailers also reported that sales were strong in August.
It’s a healthy mix overall to end the summer but after the World Cup boost and with now higher energy costs starting to feed through again, it remains to be seen if UK retail sales activity can hold through to the winter this year.
What does the data measure?UK retail sales track the volume and value of goods sold by retailers in Great Britain, covering stores and online sales. The volume measure is particularly useful for assessing real household consumption after accounting for price changes.
Why does it matter to markets?Consumer spending is a major part of the UK economy, so retail sales offer a timely read on whether households are still spending despite higher inflation, borrowing costs and weaker labour-market conditions.
How does it fit the current landscape?The backdrop is somewhat fragile. Retail volumes fell 0.5% m/m in July, although the broader three-month trend remained positive at +1.1%, and July volumes were 1.6% higher y/y. ONS real-time indicators also suggested consumer demand softened somewhat in August, with retail footfall declining from July.
What is the potential market impact?A stronger-than-expected reading would generally support sterling and UK yields by reinforcing the case for tighter BOE policy, while a weak result could do the opposite.
Current relevance to markets?Moderate. The BOE has just held rates at 3.75%, while markets are increasingly focused on whether persistent inflation and energy pressures force another hike. A sizeable retail-sales surprise could therefore shift near-term BOE expectations, particularly if it reinforces or challenges the current growth-inflation narrative.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.