Glassnode has identified a dense supply zone between $83,000 and $86,000, with the largest concentration of holder cost basis near $85,000, so the rally has run into an area where some holders may be tempted to sell. Open interest, a measure of outstanding derivatives positions, climbed about 7.6% to roughly $156 billion even as shorts were being closed, according to CoinDesk, which suggests traders are adding leverage into the move rather than stepping back. Sentiment has warmed quickly, with the Fear and Greed Index at 77, in the greed range, based on CoinMarketCap data. A rally powered by forced buying can reverse as fast as it built if spot demand does not follow.
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Earlier:
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Selling into an eight-month high is a risk decision, not a top call, and Pillows has put a number on what would prove him wrong.
Summary:
- Crypto analyst Ted Pillows said in an X post on September 21 that he sold his last Bitcoin at $85,000, citing rising FOMO on social media and his read of the risk and reward at that price.
- He said the group had accumulated in a range of roughly $58,000 to $62,000, and that he does not see much selling pressure between $85,000 and $88,000.
- His base case is still a retrace toward the mid-$70,000s, which he would treat as invalidated if Bitcoin posts multiple daily and weekly closes above $83,000.
- Bitcoin hit an eight-month high above $87,000 on September 21 in a short squeeze, with CoinDesk reporting about $648 million of short liquidations.
- TheStreet reported the strongest weekly inflows into US-domiciled digital asset ETFs since early October 2025, while Bitcoin remains about 32% below its record near $126,000.
- The rally followed a low of about $74,913 on September 15, when the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, and a 25 basis point Fed rate rise on September 16.
Crypto analyst Ted Pillows says he sold the last of his Bitcoin at $85,000, while making clear the sale is not a call that the market has peaked. In a post on X on September 21, he pointed to a build-up of FOMO, or fear of missing out, on social media and said he was taking profits after the group had accumulated in a zone of roughly $58,000 to $62,000. He described the decision as position management based on the risk and reward available at current prices. The sale is self-reported and cannot be independently verified, and the post also promotes a paid subscription to his live trading spreadsheet.
Pillows said he still expects a retrace toward the mid-$70,000s and calls that his base case. He also set a clear condition for dropping it: if Bitcoin starts closing multiple daily and weekly candles above $83,000, he would treat the retracement view as invalidated and reassess. He added that he sees little selling pressure between $85,000 and $88,000, which reads as an acknowledgement that the move could extend before any pullback, though that is an interpretation of his comment rather than a forecast he made. His stated approach is to respond to the data rather than defend a thesis.
The sale came as Bitcoin reached its highest level since January, crossing $85,000 on Monday after gaining more than 7% over the week, according to TheStreet. CoinDesk reported that a short squeeze, in which traders betting on lower prices are forced to buy back their positions, liquidated about $648 million of bearish bets. TheStreet said US-listed digital asset ETFs recorded their strongest weekly inflows since early October 2025, and The National reported that anticipated talks between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping had lifted risk appetite. The rally followed a low of about $74,913 on September 15, when the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, and the Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point rate rise on September 16. Bitcoin remains about 32% below its October 2025 record near $126,000.
What to watch next: The first test is whether Bitcoin holds above $83,000 on daily and weekly closes, since that is the level Pillows says would change his view. Sustained closes above it would weaken his retracement scenario, while a slide back below it would keep that scenario intact. Also watch whether spot demand, including ETF inflows, keeps pace once the liquidation-driven part of the move fades, and how price behaves in the $85,000 to $88,000 area he described as light on sellers. One analyst’s exit is a single data point, not a market signal. Readers weighing the move can borrow his discipline: decide in advance which level or condition would change their view, rather than reacting to the pace of the rally.
The terms behind the story
Short squeeze
A short position is a bet that a price will fall. When the price rises instead, those traders must buy back to close their positions, which adds buying pressure and can push prices up faster. Because that buying is forced rather than chosen, squeeze rallies can fade if fresh demand does not follow.
Invalidation level
The price or condition at which an analyst says their view is wrong. Pillows’ is multiple daily and weekly closes above $83,000. A close is the price at the end of a day or week, so a brief spike through the level does not count.
FOMO
Fear of missing out is the urge to buy into a rising market for fear of being left behind. Pillows cites it as a reason for caution, but widespread FOMO does not by itself signal a top.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.