- Recap: US and Iran meet in New York on UNGA sidelines, Hormuz conditions on the table
- Trump and Bessent talk about a diesel export ban. Also says spoke with Iran for 3 hours
- Fed’s Barkin says he thinks the hiking cycle could be like the Greenspan “mid-cycle adjustment”
- US treasury sells $69 billion of two-year notes at a high yield of 4.787%
- Richmond Fed’s Barkin says inflation risks outweighed employment risks in last week’s rate hike
- Trump: I believe we will make a deal with Iran right after US election
- Fed’s Williams doesn’t comment on monetary policy or economic outlook
- US September Richmond composite index -2 vs +4 prior
- EU Consumer Confidence (flash) for September -16.5 vs -16.0 estimate
- Fed’s Collins: With jobs market on a better footing, can focus on price stability
Markets:
- Gold up $22 to $4364
- US 10-year yields down 6 bps to 4.96%
- WTI crude oil down $3.36 to $89.02
- NZD leads, CAD lags
- S&P 500 flat, Nasdaq up 0.8%
Eyes were on Iran with officials converging in New York at the UN. Early in the day, there was a Japanese report suggesting Iran would reopen the Strait in exchange for the US lifting the blockade. That sounded like something of a capitulation and was followed by multiple denials that reversed the losses in oil. That momentum continued when Trump once again (at the UN) said a deal could come after the midterms.
However a short time later, Trump reappeared to say there was a 3-hour meeting between US and Iranian officials that went well with another to follow. Leaks from that meeting are all over the place with some hinted that the old MOU is still the basis for Iran’s discussion, while others suggesting more leeway. With that, oil slumped again late and risk assets did a bit better while the US dollar softened.
The entire day was basically a back-and-forth on Iran rippling through markets but Barkin’s comments suggested the Fed is considering a mid-cycle adjustment, or something akin to the 75 bps move in the mid-1990s.
Stock markets continue to trade on two tracks, with macro one and AI the other, often overlapping. Micron was near the top of the leaderboard as the chip trade revives but homebuilders were also strong on the hope for a less-aggressive rate hike path, perhaps due to peace in Iran.
On net, the moves in markets today were minor (ex-oil) as we wait for more clarity.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.