Headlines:
- Oil slips below $100 as US-Iran talks put crude prices and Treasury yields at a crossroads
- The selloff in oil prices stalls as Trump pours cold water on expectations of an earlier end to the conflict
- Gold falls back to the major $4,300 support ahead of key US data as traders await new US-Iran developments
- USD/JPY holds above 157 despite BOJ rate hike; intervention risk refuses to disappear
- France PMI jumps back into expansion in September but inflation pressures complicate the ECB outlook
- Germany September flash manufacturing PMI 53.8 vs 54.0 expected
- Eurozone PMI jumps as services surge, price pressures keep ECB October rate hike in play
- UK September flash services PMI 51.7 vs 52.0 expected
Market update:
- Brent crude +0.9% to $100.17
- USD leads, JPY lags on the day
- Gold -1.3% to $4,300
- 10-year Treasury yields +1.3 bps to 4.98%
- European indices lower; S&P 500 futures -0.1%
The session started with a bit of a calmer mood, as investors picked up from where they left off yesterday. Oil prices were lower, with Brent crude resting under $100 while stocks held steadier as European traders took to their desks.
But as investors continue to weigh US-Iran diplomacy hopes, the bond market is not giving them much time to rest on their laurels. 10-year Treasury yields are still hovering just below the 5% mark while we’re seeing bond yields in Europe push up as well. 10-year German bond yields are up nearly 5 bps to 3.49% while 10-year French bond yields are up 5 bps to 4.54% on the day.
And it didn’t take long before oil prices also moved up to reaffirm the push up in bond yields. Brent crude is now returning back to just above $100, up from around $98.50 at the start of European morning trade.
The moves between oil and the bond market are once again stoking inflation fears, and that is hurting risk appetite in broader markets. The euro area PMI data today is also adding to this in underscoring stronger economic activity as well growing price pressures in the region’s major economies, keeping the ECB rate hike debate live for the October meeting.
The US dollar is seen pushing higher while stocks are dragged lower as a result. USD/JPY continues to push higher as it nears the 158.00 level now, while EUR/USD continues to fall closer to test the 1.1400 level. Meanwhile, European indices are also dragged lower after a sluggish open while US futures have also turned red after a steadier showing earlier in the day.
Tech shares have been holding up well to start the week but as bond yields threaten to push higher again, we can see how quickly things can change. S&P 500 futures are down 0.1% with Nasdaq futures down 0.3% currently.
In other markets, gold is also facing some selling pressures as the precious metal falls by over 1% to near $4,300. And Bitcoin is also sitting lower by nearly 1% at around $85,490 on the day.
It seems that markets have enjoyed a bit of a breather in recent sessions but with the bond market continuing to sit on edge, it is starting to stir up some nerves again in broader markets today.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.