FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEW
The Nasdaq has been supported into new record highs after the Fed projected
a less hawkish path for interest rates than the market had priced, effectively showing
low appetite for extended tightening.
Moreover, the
significant drop in oil prices on growing expectations of a de-escalation and
an earlier end to the conflict supported the risk sentiment, keeping the Nasdaq
bid into new highs. At the UN General
Assembly, though, Trump poured some cold water on those expectations as he
repeated that the US would make a deal with Iran after the November elections.
The general risk sentiment started to deteriorate as oil prices began
rising again and dragged the Nasdaq lower. Eventually the bearish momentum
increased yesterday after the US Flash PMIs showed a much stronger
growth than expected and triggered another hawkish repricing that sent Treasury
yields to new highs. All else being equal, we might see the Nasdaq erasing all the gains since the FOMC decision.
The focus will remain
on interest rates expectations and Middle East developments. If the markets start to sense an earlier end to the
war or we get a surprising breakthrough, then we can expect oil prices to
decline, triggering a dovish repricing and supporting the Nasdaq.
Conversely, if things remain unchanged or even
re-escalate, we can expect crude oil to remain supported into new highs and
weigh on the stock market as rate hike bets will continue to increase.
NASDAQ TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On
the daily chart, we can see the Nasdaq printed a new all-time high this week but couldn’t extend the
gains as negative macro developments dragged prices lower. We have a major
upward trendline defining the bullish structure on this timeframe.
If we get a pullback, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline
with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into new record highs. The
sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to extend the
correction into the 27,203 level with the swing low at 28,800 as the first
target.
NASDAQ TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On
the 4 hour chart, we have the
swing high around the 30,300 level that could act as support. We can expect the
buyers to step in around these levels with a defined risk below the swing high
to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look
for a break lower to pile in for a drop into the major trendline next.
NASDAQ TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, we
have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe.
The sellers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to
keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a
break higher to increase the bullish bets into new record highs. The red lines
define average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Todaywe have the Trump-Xi meeting and the US Jobless Claims
data, but the focus will remain on the US-Iran developments and interest rate
expectations.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.