The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 are moving higher today as investors focus on a combination of continued economic growth, less urgency for another Fed rate hike (just below 20% chance for an October hike now), and optimism surrounding technology and AI spending.
Friday’s weaker jobs report eased concerns about an immediate rate increase, while today’s strong S&P Global services data suggest business demand remains healthy.
For stocks, the attraction is that a cooling labor market does not necessarily mean corporate earnings are about to fall sharply. Continued investment in AI infrastructure and strength in Nvidia (new record – see chart below) are also helping support the heavily weighted technology names.
The caveat is that Treasury yields remain elevated and inflation pressures have not gone away. For now, however, buyers are putting more weight on the growth and earnings outlook and are willing to look past those risks.
Looking at the 3 broaders indices, the S&P is lagging the gains in the Nasdaq Composite and the Nasdaq 100. In the video above, and the charts below, I outline the key short term bias defiining levels for each.
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S&P 500: The index is trading up 0.32% at 7747.71, after reaching an intraday high of 7758.32. On the topside, the swing highs between 7771.48 and 7816.70 remain the next hurdles. Buyers need to get—and stay—above those levels to open the door for further upside momentum and new all-time highs.
On the downside, last Thursday’s low found support near the upper boundary of the 7573.60–7617.37 swing area. That zone remains a key support area, with the rising 100-hour moving average at 7568.18 sitting just below it. Holding above those levels keeps the buyers more in control. A break below the swing area and moving average would weaken that technical picture and shift the bias more to the downside.
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Nasdaq Composite: The index is trading up 0.66% at 27368, with the high reaching 27399.81. That puts the price above the previous record closing level of 27244.28. On Friday, the index reached a new intraday high but could not secure a record close. Buyers have another opportunity today. Can they finish the job?
The 27244.28 level is the immediate barometer. Staying above it keeps a record close in play and gives buyers a nearby level against which to measure the strength of the move. A rotation back below would take some of the shine off today’s advance. Farther down, the swing level at 26676.31 remains an additional support target.
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Nasdaq 100: The index is trading up 0.50% at 30959, after reaching a high of 30996.01. Unlike the Nasdaq Composite, the Nasdaq 100 did close at a record on Friday. A positive close today would therefore mark two consecutive record closes.
For buyers, the swing highs going back to June between 30634.67 and 30762.20 now represent close support. The price has broken above that area. Buyers looking for more upside momentum want to see it hold.
A move back below 30762.20 would put the price back inside the zone, while a break below 30634.67 would signal a failure of the breakout. That would be a short-term disappointment and bring 30195.72 into focus, followed by the rising 100-hour moving average at 29517.22.
Why these levels matter
A break above an old high is a bullish step, but the follow-through matters. When former resistance holds as support, buyers show they are willing to defend the breakout. When the price falls back below that area, the breakout loses credibility.
For now, buyers have the advantage. The Nasdaq indices need to hold their gains into the close, while the S&P still needs to push through its overhead swing highs. The support levels give traders a way to measure whether that control is holding—or starting to slip.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.