FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Bitcoin rebounded yesterday and overnight after Trump said on Truth
Social that the US was engaged in productive discussions with Tehran and ruled
out US strikes against Iran before the midterm elections.
The comments eased geopolitical concerns, triggering a pullback in oil
prices, Treasury yields and the US dollar. This helped reverse some of the
macro headwinds that had weighed on Bitcoin, while a weaker dollar provided
additional support.
The move was driven by geopolitical de-escalation and improving risk
sentiment rather than a crypto-specific catalyst.
Looking ahead, markets will focus on Iran’s response to Washington’s
proposal, which Foreign Minister Araghchi said could come within the next few
days, and next week’s US CPI report.
A positive outcome could push oil prices lower, ease inflation and rate hike
concerns, and support a further recovery in Bitcoin. Conversely, a negative
response wouldn’t change much but it could limit the upside.
The CPI report will be another key catalyst. Hotter than expected data
could trigger a hawkish repricing of Fed rate hike expectations and weigh on
Bitcoin, while a soft report would likely provide another boost for the
cryptocurrency.
BITCOIN TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can
see that Bitcoinbroke below the major upward trendline
and the 82,500 support as geopolitical tensions escalated in the prior days.
The price has pulled back to retest the support-turned-resistance after Trump
ruled out the attacks on Iran. We can expect the sellers to step in around the
82,500 resistance, with a defined risk above the trendline, to position for a
drop into the 76,000 support next. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price rising back above the resistance to pile in for a rally into the 90,000
level next.
BITCOIN TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, there’s
not much we can add here as the sellers will look for short opportunities
around the resistance and the broken trendline, while the buyers will need breakouts
to start positioning for new highs.
BITCOIN TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, we
have a swing low around the 81,500 that could act as support in case we get a rejection
from the resistance. The buyers will likely step in around the swing low, with
a defined risk below it, to keep targeting new highs. The sellers, on the other
hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 76,000
support next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Today we conclude the week
with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.