OPEC has just announced a rather significant downgrade to its oil demand outlook for this year. The bloc slashed its growth forecast to just 400,000 bpd, down from the 1.4 million bpd it had projected at the start of the year. Now, that’s quite a substantial revision to say the least.
According to OPEC secretary general, Haitham Al Ghais, the latest downgrade reflects the developments in the oil market throughout the year. And they are also still expecting some of that deferred demand to materialise some time in 2027. In other words, OPEC is anticipating that there will be a recovery in consumption conditions next year.
Having said that, the present outlook is arguably the more pressing issue for oil traders. Despite the weaker demand outlook, prices are still keeping elevated with Brent crude seen above $105 and WTI crude trading back above $92 today. That’s largely due to the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, which are continuing to keep supply risks firmly in the picture.
The latest attacks on oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthi strike on Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh airport over the weekend serve as a timely reminder that tensions are still running high. And that means the oil market will have to be cautious as disruptions to shipping flows could worsen further at any time.
It’s one thing to have less demand for oil but it is a whole other thing when supply is still struggling to get to where it needs to go.
So until we do see a material improvement to the developments in the Middle East, it will be tough to take OPEC’s latest downgrade and use that as a reason to form a more bearish view on oil prices. Sure, the demand outlook may be weakening. However, supply risks are still calling the shots for now.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.