Silver spiked to the upside yesterday after some positive news on the US-Iran
negotiations front. In fact, Al-Arabiya reported that Qatar And Pakistan
presented a “compromise proposal” that met the demands of both the
American and Iranian sides and that the Pakistan Army Chief carried a proposal
with US and Iran approval. The new proposal also included partial response to
Iran’s frozen funds demand.
The market cheered initially as expectations of an imminent deal grew stronger
but then reversed after a diplomat involved in US-Iran talks said that
negotiations continue and that reports of a deal being close were wrong.
Nevertheless, the markets retain some hope given the sudden increase of positive
reports and the proximity to the midterm elections. Trump might want to secure
at least a short-term deal to bring energy prices and Treasury yields lower,
while boosting the stock market.
If we do get a breakthrough, we can expect silver to rally in the
short-term on easing inflation and rate hike concerns.
Another potential catalyst could be the US Flash PMIs data on Friday. Given
the recent growth concerns, a disappointing report could strengthen those fears
and lead to a drop in long-term Treasury yield, likely supporting silver in the
short-term. Strong data, on the other hand, could quell the concerns and put
some pressure on silver as real yields will likely rise.
SILVER TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can
see that silverrejected the trendline as the
sellers stepped in to position for a drop into new lows. We can expect the
sellers to continue to lean on the trendline, with a defined risk above it, to
keep pushing into new lows. The buyers will need a break above the trendline to
open the door for new highs and target a correction into the next trendline
around the 62.00 handle.
SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS –
4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, we have
an upward trendline defining the recent pullback. We can expect the buyers to
lean on the trendline, with a defined risk below it, to position for a rally
into the next major trendline around the 62.00 handle. The sellers, on the other
hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows,
with the 54.75 level as the first target.
SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS –
1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much we can add here as the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup
around the upward trendline, while the sellers will look for a break to extend
the drop into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
On Thursday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on
Friday we conclude the week with the US Flash PMIs.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.