Headlines:
- FOMC Preview: A hawkish hold as markets watch for signals about timing and extent of further tightening
- Why the Federal Reserve matters more to crypto market than many investors realise
- Oil consolidates around recent highs as fears of imminent US strikes ease. What’s next?
- ECB rate outlook grows more complicated as bank lending conditions tighten
- Bitcoin at risk of a big correction after breaking below the major $80K support. What to watch next?
- European stock market open: Stocks retreat as caution returns, UK leads losses
- Gold gets stuck in a consolidation around the $4,000 level as traders await the FOMC decision, US-Iran developments
- France consumer confidence plunges to lowest since 2013 as fiscal worries deepen
- China tech stocks plunge as AI trade cracks deepen, is Wall Street next?
- What are the main events for today?
- Chart of the day: Gold price hangs by a thread at $4,000 as bond market risks loom
- FX option expiries for 27 October 10am New York cut
- Japan finance minister Katayama warns of decisive action as yen intervention risks linger
- Bond market tensions ease but Treasury yields near 5% and France’s debt risks keep investors on edge
- European markets face a quiet calendar today as central banks and big tech earnings loom
Markets:
- WTI crude oil down -0.65% to $101.10
- Gold up 0.01% to $4016.00
- NZD leads, EUR lags
- S&P 500 up 0.29% to 7737
- US 10y Treasury yield down 1 bps to 4.97%
- Bitcoin down -0.35% to $79,713
We’ve had a mostly rangebound session as lack of key fundamental developments and the wait for the FOMC decision are keeping the markets in defensive mode. On the economic data side, the French consumer confidence plunged to 80 in October, well below expectations of 85 and down from a revised 85 in September, marking its lowest level since 2013.
Fiscal uncertainty, concerns over public finances and social unrest weighed on sentiment, with households reporting worsening past and expected financial situations and living standards. Inflation expectations also deteriorated, with the future prices index rising to its highest since May, while unemployment fears climbed to 61, the highest since March 2021. Overall, the report pointed to a sharp weakening in the French consumer outlook, adding to concerns following already disappointing French PMI data.
The most notable news came late in the session when Iran’s state media reported that Iran’s security chief met with the Supreme Leader Khamenei. Khamenei stressed in the meeting the importance of pursuing Iran’s interests and implementing its conditions with the aim of ending the war and the “no war, nor peace” situation”.
It was just a quick headline with zero substance, but markets reacted positively to the news. I guess they are desperate for good news. As Adam noted, the narrative must be that Iran’s security chief could be bringing the leader some kind of deal framework. The markets might also be very sensitive to deal developments given the proximity to the US midterm elections (not that it would change anything at this point).
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.